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Holiday 2014 Forecast: 'The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1'

by Ray Subers
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1
 

 
October 31, 2014

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The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1

Release Date: November 21
Studio: Lionsgate
Genre: Action/Adventure
Director: Francis Lawrence
Writers: Danny Strong, Peter Craig
Cast: Jennifer Lawrence, Josh Hutcherson, Liam Hemsworth, Woody Harrelson, Elizabeth Banks, Julianne Moore, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Jeffrey Wright, Stanley Tucci, Donald Sutherland, Toby Jones, Willow Shields, Sam Claflin, Jenna Malone
Studio Description: Katniss Everdeen is in District 13 after she shatters the games forever. Under the leadership of President Coin and the advice of her trusted friends, Katniss spreads her wings as she fights to save Peeta and a nation moved by her courage.

Analysis: Let's get this out of the way up front: barring an Avatar-like performance from Interstellar, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 will be the highest-grossing movie of the year at the domestic box office.

The first two installments in the franchise earned $408 million and $424.7 million, respectively, and both were well-received by critics and audiences alike. The second entry, Catching Fire, ended with the kind of game-changing cliffhanger that has fans eagerly waiting to see where the story goes from here.

Still, there's reason to believe that Mockingjay Part 1 will earn a bit less than its predecessors. The Twilight and Harry Potter franchises also split their final book in to two parts: in both cases, the penultimate chapter experienced a slight decrease in domestic box office. Also, the first two installments in the Hunger Games franchise got a boost from IMAX pricing, which Mockingjay won't have (those screens are booked for Interstellar).

Ultimately, look for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 to earn anywhere from $350 to $400 million—perhaps a bit more, if it turns out to be as strong as the previous entries.

Forecast:
$385 million

Similar Movies:
The Hunger Games, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2, The Twilight Saga: Eclipse, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

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