'Angel Has Fallen' Looks to Lead Light Labor Day Weekend
by Brad Brevet
August 29, 2019
As the summer movie season comes to a close, we're looking at what is likely to be the second worst weekend of the year so far. There are no major new wide releases, though there are a couple of moderate debuts in Don't Let Go and Bennett's War, yet both are likely to fall outside the top ten. That said, the landscape should be nicely cleared out for what should be a strong opening next week for Warner Bros. and New Line's It: Chapter Two as the fall movie season hopes to get off to a strong start.
Expected to repeat atop the weekend box office is Lionsgate and Millennium's Angel has Fallen. The film's $21.3 million opening was less than $300k shy of the opening for London Has Fallen, but the film has managed to outperform London over the past three days since its debut. However, we can't really look specifically at that film when it comes to expectations for this weekend due to the Labor Day holiday.
We could look at a film like Mechanic: Resurrection, which dipped -40% in its second weekend over Labor Day, but that film didn't have the kind of debut or audience response Angel had. Weinstein's No Escape dropped -32.5% over the same weekend in 2015, but that's another film Angel outperformed over its opening weekend. All told, given the size of Angel's debut and audience response, we're expecting a -45% drop and a $11.7 million three-day and a $41 million domestic cume, headed toward a four-day around $15 million.
In second, look for Universal's Good Boys to dip around -15% to start its third week in release with a nearly $10 million three-day and a four-day performance around $12.5 million, finishing the holiday frame with a domestic cume around $60 million.
Disney's The Lion King is looking at its seventh weekend in the top five, adding another $10+ million over the four-day, holiday weekend and a domestic cume topping $525 million as it closes in on Rogue One on the all-time domestic box office chart.
Universal's Hobbs & Shaw, which is entering its fifth weekend in release with a domestic cume that has now topped $150 million, should land in fourth. This weekend look for the film to add nearly $9 million or so over the holiday for a domestic cume right around $160 million.
Rounding out the top five is Sony and AFFIRM's Overcomer, which debuted with a strong $8.1 million last weekend, to land in fourth position, dipping -19% for a three-day around $6.5 million and a four-day close to $9 million. Of course, this could end up being a conservative forecast when we look at the Kendricks' War Room, which dipped just -16.5% in its second weekend over the same weekend back in 2015, en route to a run that saw the film deliver consistently strong week-over-week performances. For now, though, should our forecast hold we're looking at a domestic cume around $20 million by the end of the holiday frame.
It's also worth mentioning that Sony is releasing an extended cut of Spider-Man: Far From Home featuring approximately four additional minutes of a never-before-seen action sequence beginning today in 2,781 locations. The film will expand even further over the weekend into 3,162 theaters, including 233 IMAX locations and 200 large format screens. Right now we're anticipating a three-day around $3 million or so, which would have the film falling outside the top ten, but if it could mirror Avengers: Endgame's expansion back in late June it might be able to worm its way into the top ten.
We could also see Pixar's Toy Story 4 challenge for a spot in the top ten as Disney is bringing the film back into 2,715 locations (+1,895) where it should do anywhere from $2.5-3.5 million over the three-day as the film pushes toward $430 million domestically.
Elsewhere, in moderate release, Blumhouse and OTL will debut Don't Let Go in 922 locations with the studio anticipating a four-day performance anywhere from $3-4 million. Meanwhile, Forrest Films will open Bennett's War in 970 theaters and we have yet to receive industry expectations for this title.
Additionally, in limited release, Blue Fox is releasing Killerman in 320 theaters and Pantelion's Tod@s Caen will open in 371 theaters.
This weekend's three and four-day forecasts are directly below. This post will be updated on Saturday morning with Friday estimates followed by a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- Angel has Fallen (3,336 theaters) - $11.8 M
- Good Boys (3,453 theaters) - $9.9 M
- The Lion King (3,190 theaters) - $8.1 M
- Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (2,972 theaters) - $6.9 M
- Overcomer (1,827 theaters) - $6.6 M
- Ready or Not (2,998 theaters) - $5.7 M
- The Angry Birds Movie 2 (3,311 theaters) - $5.0 M
- Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark (2,747 theaters) - $4.4 M
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (1,993 theaters) - $4.3 M
- Dora and the Lost City of Gold (2,477 theaters) - $4.3 M
- Angel has Fallen (3,336 theaters) - $15.1 M
- Good Boys (3,453 theaters) - $12.5 M
- The Lion King (3,190 theaters) - $10.4 M
- Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (2,972 theaters) - $8.9 M
- Overcomer (1,827 theaters) - $8.8 M
- Ready or Not (2,998 theaters) - $7.0 M
- The Angry Birds Movie 2 (3,311 theaters) - $6.5 M
- Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark (2,747 theaters) - $5.7 M
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (1,993 theaters) - $5.5 M
- Dora and the Lost City of Gold (2,477 theaters) - $5.5 M
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