'Angel has Fallen' Looks to Rise to Weekend #1
by Brad Brevet
August 22, 2019
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Lionsgate and Millennium's Angel Has Fallen debuted with an estimated $7.9 million on Friday and is looking to top pre-weekend expectations and lead the weekend with a $20+ million three-day. The film received an "A-" CinemaScore from opening day audiences, matching the CinemaScore for its two predecessors.
Sony and AFFIRM's Overcomer debuted with an estimated $3 million on Friday and is expected to deliver a $8 million three-day, topping pre-weekend expectations. The film received an "A+" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.
Fox Searchlight's Ready or Not is falling a bit short of expectations, delivering an estimated $2.4 million on Friday and is now looking at a $7 million three-day and a five-day performance just barely topping $10 million despite strong reviews and audience reception.
You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Lionsgate and Millennium's Angel Has Fallen took in an impressive $1.5 million in previews yesterday from approximately 2,600 locations. The performance is well ahead of the $850k in previews for London has Fallen and three times as much as the $500k in previews for Olympus Has Fallen. It's even ahead of the $950k Den of Thieves brought in before a $15.2 million debut, putting the film in a strong position heading into today's wide release in 3,286 theaters.
AFFIRM Films's Overcomer took in $775,000 from Thursday previews, which began at 4PM in 1,563 locations. There isn't a lot to compare to, but many films targeting a similar demographic tend to bring in ~400k+ from previews, which bodes well for the film's opening in over 1,700 theaters.
We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: Another weekend and three more new wide releases make their debut, making it 13 new wide releases in the last three weeks alone as the summer box office season will soon come to a close. Among this week's new releases, look for Lionsgate's Angel has Fallen to take the weekend's top spot. Meanwhile, Fox Searchlight's new thriller Ready or Not and Sony and AFFIRM's Overcomer look to be among a crop of films battling for spots five thru ten on the weekend chart and, who knows, maybe Roadside's The Peanut Butter Falcon will find its way in there as well as it expands to nearly one thousand locations this weekend.
Looking for its first #1 film since John Wick 3 back in mid-May, Lionsgate is back with the third installment in yet another franchise, with the action-thriller Angel has Fallen, in which Gerard Butler returns as US Secret Service Agent Mike Banning. The film is the third in the Fallen franchise and studio expectations are for a debut in the low to mid-teens from 3,286 locations, which meshes with our current forecast. While the film was pacing behind several comps late last week when looking at IMDb page view data, it has seen a promising uptick over the last few days, comping well to Butler's 2018 thriller Den of Thieves ($15.2m opening) as well as releases such as 2018 action releases Peppermint ($13.4m opening) and Death Wish ($13m opening). In fact, the gains do suggest it could reach into the higher teens for release, but for now we're looking for a $14+ million opening and a #1 finish.
In the runner up position is last weekend's #1 film, Universal's R-rated comedy Good Boys, which not only outperformed expectations, but did so earning a "B+" CinemaScore from opening day audiences and an 88% audience score on RottenTomatoes. This weekend we're expecting a drop around -44% and a $12 million sophomore frame, pushing the film's domestic gross to $42+ million by the end of the weekend.
Universal should also land in third with Hobbs & Shaw, which we expect to dip around -41% for a $8.3 million three-day, finishing the weekend with a $148 million domestic cume.
Next up is Disney's The Lion King, which just became only the 14th film ever to top $500 million domestically and is looking to add another $7+ million to that total this weekend. Come end of day Sunday the film will have grossed around $510 million domestically, becoming the 13th highest grossing domestic release of all-time.
In a very crowded field, we're going with Sony Animation's The Angry Birds Movie 2 to round out the top five, which we expect to dip around 50% or so and come up with a three day around $5.25 million for a domestic cume around $27 million by the end of the weekend.
Outside the top five is where we expect to find our next two wide releases beginning with Fox Searchlight's thriller Ready or Not. We originally expected this one to deliver anywhere from $12-13 million for its five day debut, but after a $1.9 million opening day yesterday, which was inclusive of a considerable $730,000 in previews, this one is looking like it could struggle to hit double digits in its first five days. Working in its favor is a "B+" CinemaScore, which is strong for an R-rated thriller of this sort, and a stellar 90% rating at RottenTomatoes. However, right now, we can't go any higher than $5 million for our three-day expectations and a five day performance right around $9-10 million.
Additionally, Sony and AFFIRM's Overcomer launches in 1,723 theaters this weekend with studio expectations right around $6 million. The film comes from faith-based filmmakers the Kendrick brothers, whose War Room delivered nearly $68 million back in 2015. With this film, however, we've been having a hard time finding comps within the genre and target audience to justify a forecast as high as $6 million.
A look at IMDb page view data does show an uptick over the past couple of days, but it is still trailing all comps we've thrown at it with a comp such as The Young Messiah being one of the best in recent days, which is why we're anticipating a debut right around $4.5-5.5 million and a finish right on the edge of the top ten. That being said, online ticket retailer Fandango.com reports the film is outpacing Fox's Breakthrough in advanced ticket sales and that film went on to debut with $11.2 million over the three-day weekend as part of a five-day, $14.7 million debut. So perhaps this one will outperform our expectations.
In limited release, Amazon Studios will debut Brittany Runs a Marathon in five theaters in New York and Los Angeles, Roadside will release Fiddler: A Miracle of Miracles into seven locations; and IFC will debut Vita and Virginia.
It's also worth noting, Roadside will expand the release of The Peanut Butter Falcon into 991 locations (+939) as it enters its third week in release. The question here is whether this is going to perform more like Hotel Mumbai or The Disaster Artist, both of which saw similar expansions and went on to deliver $3.3 million and $6.3 million weekends respectively. The difference will be a spot in the top ten or falling just outside.
This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- Angel has Fallen (3,286 theaters) - $14.5 M
- Good Boys (3,353 theaters) - $12.0 M
- Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (3,311 theaters) - $8.3 M
- The Lion King (3,300 theaters) - $7.5 M
- The Angry Birds Movie 2 (3,869 theaters) - $5.2 M
- Ready or Not (2,855 theaters) - $5.0 M
- Overcomer (1,723 theaters) - $5.0 M
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (2,209 theaters) - $5.0 M
- Dora and the Lost City of Gold (2,843 theaters) - $5.0 M
- Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark (2,927 theaters) - $4.9 M
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