'Hobbs & Shaw' Looks to Once Again Fend Off a Flurry of New Releases
by Brad Brevet
August 15, 2019
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: The potential for a Good Boys over performance we suggested in our preview below is coming to life as the film followed up strong preview showing with an $8.3 million Friday (including $2.1 million in previews). Universal is anticipating the film will result in a $20.8 million three-day, giving the studio their third straight weekend #1 as they cross $1 billion at the domestic box office for the year. The film received a "B+" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.
Entertainment Studios's 47 Meters Down: Uncaged is falling short of even Mojo's meager expectations after an estimated $3.15 million Friday with expectations for a three-day around $7.6 million. The film received a "C+" CinemaScore.
Sony Animation's The Angry Birds Movie 2 is also a slow starter and looks like it will even come up shy of the studio's expectations after an estimated $2.75 million on Friday. At this point it looks like the film may fall short of $9 million for the three-day and struggle to reach $15 million after its Tuesday opening.
Annapurna's Where'd You Go, Bernadette brought in just $1.2 million on Friday and is looking to finish around $3.6 million for the weekend. The Friday performance includes $200k from preview showings on Thursday night. The film received a "B" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.
Lastly, WB's Blinded by the Light brought in an estimated $1.38 million on Friday and is expected to finish around $3.5 million or so over the three-day weekend. The film received an "A-" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.
You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Universal's Good Boys delivered a solid, $2.1 million from Thursday evening previews in ~2,600 theaters with showings beginning at 7PM. Films like Baby Driver, This is the End and Bad Moms all delivered similar preview performances en route to $20+ million debuts.
Entertainment Studios's 47 Meters Down: Uncaged struggled to the surface on Thursday night, delivering $516,000 in 2,015 locations. This falls shy of the $735k in previews the first film delivered in advance of an $11.2 million performance.
We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: Like last weekend, this weekend features five new wide releases, and while Universal's Hobbs & Shaw makes a bid to top the weekend box office for the third straight weekend in a row, challengers are lining at the gates, among them Universal's R-rated comedy Good Boys, Sony's Angry Birds 2 and Entertainment Studios's 47 Meters Down: Uncaged. Alternatively, UAR's Where'd You Go, Bernadette and Warner's Blinded by the Light look to be in a dogfight for tenth position as neither appears they will break out from the pack.
After a -58% drop last weekend and a second straight weekend at #1, Universal's Hobbs & Shaw could join Glass and Avengers: Endgame as the only films to top the weekend box office three weekends in a row in 2019. This weekend we're expecting a -48% drop and a three-day around $13 million for a domestic cume topping $130 million by the end of the weekend. Whether that will be enough to take the top spot will depend, mostly, on how well our next three films perform.
First we have Universal's R-rated comedy Good Boys, which will debut in 3,204 locations with the studio anticipating a debut right around $12 million. This is exactly where we have the film pegged at this moment, despite the fact IMDb page views suggests $12 million could be the ceiling for this title. That said, we expect the positive reviews — 82% on RottenTomatoes — to help bolster the film's performance through the weekend. In fact, of the week's new releases and despite the page view analysis, this is the one new release we see the largest possibility for a break out, and were it to top $17 million this weekend we wouldn't be the least bit surprised, we just can't expect it at this point.
Also looking to finish in the same vicinity is Sony Animation's The Angry Birds Movie 2, which debuted on Tuesday with a soft $2.6 million and managed just $1.7 million yesterday. The film is playing in 3,869 locations this weekend and the studio is far from bullish on expectations, projecting a $16-17 million six day performance, which would mean a $10+ million three-day. This is a dramatic shift when compared to the first Angry Birds movie, which brought in $38 million over its opening weekend back in May 2016.
A look at IMDb page view data shows Angry Birds 2 trailing far behind the original over the two weeks leading up to release. In fact, the only really positive comps are box office disappointments such as Missing Link ($5.9m opening) and The Nut Job 2 ($8.3m opening). That said, reviews for the film aren't too bad — 73% on RottenTomatoes — and we do expect to see an uptick in box office this weekend with families turning out for the sequel, which is leading us to a $12 million forecast, but that's a far cry from the first film's performance, which went on to gross $107 million domestically and over $352 million worldwide.
Showing potential to not only move up this crowded list, but possibly top the weekend, is Entertainment Studios's 47 Meters Down: Uncaged. Launching in ~2,850 locations this weekend, the studio is expecting a performance anywhere from $13-15 million, which, based on what we're seeing, would be enough to challenge for that #1 spot. However, a look at comps using IMDb page view data tells a much different story. Looking at a wide range of titles such as Crawl, Sinister 2, Oculus, The Shallows, The Gallows and the original 47 Meters Down shows the sequel not only pacing behind all six films over the course of the two weeks leading up to release, but it is trailing each by a dramatic margin. That being said, while industry forecasts are a bit lower than studio expectations, anticipating an $11-12 million performance, we can't even go that high and are expecting a performance anywhere from $9-10 million for the three-day.
Also jockeying for position among this crop of newcomers will be Disney's The Lion King, which we expect will drop around -48% or so this weekend for a $10.5 million three-day and a domestic cume right around $495 million by the end of the weekend. The film will top Disney's Finding Dory on the all-time domestic chart this weekend and will soon become only the 14th film ever to top $500 million at the domestic box office.
Further down the list we come to UAR's Where'd You Go, Bernadette and Warner's Blinded by the Light, both of which are looking as if they'll be competing for the final spot in the top ten with performances anywhere from $4-5 million and perhaps coming up even short of those expectations.
In limited release, Sony Classics will release Aquarela in five theaters while Well Go debuts The Divine Fury and The Line Walker 2. Additionally, Fox International will debut Mission Mangal in 263 locations.
This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (3,757 theaters) - $13.1 M
- Good Boys (3,204 theaters) - $12.0 M
- The Angry Birds Movie 2 (3,869 theaters) - $12.0 M
- The Lion King (3,560 theaters) - $10.5 M
- 47 Meters Down: Uncaged (2,850 theaters) - $9.5 M
- Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark (3,135 theaters) - $9.4 M
- Dora and the Lost City of Gold (3,735 theaters) - $9.0 M
- Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (2,504 theaters) - $6.0 M
- The Art of Racing in the Rain (2,765 theaters) - $4.3 M
- Where'd You Go, Bernadette (2,404 theaters) - $4.3 M
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