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'Fast & Furious' Spin-Off, 'Hobbs & Shaw', is Ready to Race to a #1 Weekend Finish

by Brad Brevet
 

 
August 1, 2019

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Universal's Hobbs & Shaw led the way on Friday with an estimated $23.7 million. The film is expected to deliver a three-day around $60+ million, which is right on expectations. Opening day audiences scored the film with an "A-" CinemaScore, which is just shy of the "A" score the last four Fast & Furious films.

Internationally, the film is currently expected to bring in an estimated $120.7 million with a #1 opening in 53 markets.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Universal's Hobbs & Shaw delivered $5.8 million from Thursday night previews, which began last night at 7PM in 3,400 theaters. The performance mirrors the preview grosses for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood just last weekend ahead of the film's $41 million opening and is well below the $10.4 million in previews for The Fate of the Furious and is closest to the $6.4 million in previews for Fast & Furious 6 and well ahead of the $3.8 million in midnight grosses for Fast Five.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: It's time to get Fast & Furious in theaters once again, though this time the whole gang isn't here as Universal has spun-off from the primary franchise with the characters played by Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham in Hobbs & Shaw. The film will easily take the #1 spot at this weekend's box office followed by the continued success of Disney's The Lion King. Additionally, eyes will be on Quentin Tarantino's Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, eager to see how the film follows up the director's largest opening to date.

It has been two years since the last Fast & Furious film and, in some ways, it won't be for another year that we actually get a "true" Fast & Furious film as this weekend's Hobbs & Shaw is a spin-off with characters introduced well after the franchise got its start 18 years ago. Starring Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham as the title characters, Hobbs & Shaw looks to branch out from the franchise, which now spans eight feature films and has already delivered over $5.1 billion worldwide. The last installment in the franchise, 2017's The Fate of the Furious, debuted with $98.7 million domestically, but Hobbs & Shaw is currently expected to open a bit lower than 2009's Fast and Furious, which opened with $70.9 million and re-energized the franchise following 2006's The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift, which was the last time the franchise diverted from focusing on any of its original characters.

Universal notes they are anticipating an opening around $60 million from 4,253 locations and if it wasn't for the longevity of this franchise, based on what we're seeing, we'd have a hard time going that high. Looking at comp titles outside of the Fast & Furious franchise, such as Statham's The Meg, and Johnson's Rampage and Skyscraper, Hobbs & Shaw is actually pacing behind all three over the two weeks leading up to release. That being said, a look at The Fate of the Furious does show Hobbs & Shaw pacing behind that film, but not by a significant margin, suggesting not only is a $60+ million debut possible, but perhaps even higher. Additionally, data from online ticket retailer Fandango.com supports this saying sales for the film are pacing similarly to Mission: Impossible - Fallout, which opened with $61.2 million last July. For our forecast we're looking for a $65+ million opening with room to possibly top $70 million.

Internationally, Hobbs & Shaw will launch in 63 markets this weekend including UK & Ireland, Germany, Russia, Mexico, Brazil, Australia, and Japan. The international rollout continues through the month of August with seven additional territories, including China on August 23.

Disney's The Lion King remake will land in second place after two weeks atop the domestic charts and having already crossed $1 billion in worldwide ticket sales. The film did drop a bit steeper than expected last weekend, but as it enters its third week in release it should level out a bit. We're currently anticipating a -50% drop and a $38 million three-day, for a domestic cume topping $430 million by the end of the weekend.

Sony's release of Quentin Tarantino's Once Upon a Time in Hollywood managed to outperform expectations last weekend and came away with a "B" CinemaScore from opening day audiences while IMDb users currently rate the film 8.5/10 and RottenTomatoes user reviews score it at 72%. Looking at Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds, which previously served as the director's largest opening, that film dipped -49.3% in its second weekend while Django Unchained only slipped -33.6%. While buzz is strong for the title, we're anticipating a drop around -51% as neither Basterds or Django held pre-release previews, which added a healthy $5.8 million to Once Upon a Time's debut. Should our forecast hold we're looking for a three-day around $20 million and a domestic cume around $79 million come the end of the weekend.

Sony will also take fourth place with Spider-Man: Far from Home, which is looking to top $360 million domestically this weekend should it be able to live up to our $8 million forecast as it heads into its fifth week in release.

Rounding out the top five is Disney and Pixar's Toy Story 4, which we expect will drop around -32% or so for a $7+ million three-day and a domestic cume right around $410 million.

In limited release, Neon will debut Luce in five theaters and IFC's The Nightingale will open in two locations.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

  • Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (4,253 theaters) - $65.0 M
  • The Lion King (4,802 theaters) - $38.4 M
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (3,659 theaters) - $20.0 M
  • Spider-Man: Far from Home (3,446 theaters) - $8.1 M
  • Toy Story 4 (3,225 theaters) - $7.1 M
  • Crawl (2,085 theaters) - $2.1 M
  • Aladdin (1,370 theaters) - $1.9 M
  • The Farewell (409 theaters) - $1.8 M
  • Yesterday (1,829 theaters) - $1.7 M
  • Stuber (1,080 theaters) - $0.7 M

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