Don't Look for 'Crawl' or 'Stuber' to Ignite the Summer Box Office
by Brad Brevet
July 11, 2019
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Paramount's Crawl delivered an estimated $4.3 million on Friday and is currently looking at a $10-11 million debut. The film received a "B" CinemaScore from opening day crowds.
Disney's release of Fox's R-rated comedy Stuber brought in an estimated $3.08 million on Friday and is expected to finish around $8 million for the three-day. It too received a "B" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.
You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Paramount's Crawl brought in an estimated $1 million from preview showings last night beginning at 7PM. The performance is ahead of the $735k in previews 47 Meters Down brought in ahead of an $11.2 million opening in June 2017.
Disney's release of Fox's Stuber brought in $750k from previews beginning at 7PM in nearly all of the film's opening weekend 3,050 locations. The performance is a bit ahead of the $500k in previews for CHiPs ahead of a $7.7 million opening back in March 2017 and trails the $950k in previews for The Happytime Murders ahead of a $9.5 million opening last August.
We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: This past Sunday morning it appeared the weekend box office had finally outperformed the same weekend from a year prior after three-straight down performances. However, once actuals came in, the weekend again dipped below the same weekend in 2018 for the fourth weekend in a row and, unfortunately, this week will make it five.
Looking to repeat atop the weekend box office, Sony and Marvel's Spider-Man: Far from Home is in something of a never-before-seen position after debuting on a Tuesday last week with the July 4 holiday landing on a Thursday. Looking at films like Transformers and The Amazing Spider-Man, those films dipped -47.5% and -44.2% respectively after their six day openings, but both were July 3 releases rather than July 2, and neither opened as large as Far from Home, which leads to the assumption Far from Home will have a bit of a steeper second weekend drop. As a result, we're anticipating a dip anywhere from 54-57% and a three-day around $41-42 million, which would push the film's domestic cume near $270 million after 13 days in release.
Second place will also be a holdover title in Disney and Pixar's Toy Story 4, which is looking to end up near $350 million domestically by the end of the weekend or just a million or so short. With no new competition in the family marketplace this weekend, we're expecting a drop around -35% for a three-day over $22 million. Come Sunday evening the film will rank as the fifth highest grossing Pixar release ever.
Landing in third is where we expect to find the first of the weekend's new releases in Paramount's R-rated alligator thriller Crawl. The studio is anticipating a weekend performance around $10 million for the $13.5 million production, which lines up mostly with what we're seeing, though we do see some potential upside. A look at IMDb page view data shows it pacing very similarly to 47 Meters Down, which debuted with over $11 million back in June 2017 from just 2,270 locations. Crawl is debuting in over 3,100 locations, leading us to expect a performance that can, at the least, reach $12 million.
Next we come to Disney's release of Fox's R-rated buddy comedy Stuber, which is opening in over 3,000 locations. While the studio isn't providing expectations for this weekend, industry expectations have the film debuting anywhere from $7-15 million with many settling around $11 million. Based on the information we're looking at, even the lower end of that range could end up too high. A look at IMDb page views for films such as American Ultra, Keanu, War Dogs, The Nice Guys and even The Happytime Murders show Stuber trailing well behind all five over the two weeks leading up to release. In fact, the best comp at this point seems to be 2017's CHiPs, which Stuber is also trailing in terms of IMDb page views. That film opened with $7.7 million from 2,464 locations, which is right around where we're going with our expectations for Stuber and don't expect reviews — 43% on RottenTomatoes and 38 on Metacritic — to help out either.
Rounding out the top five is Universal's Yesterday, which is adding 141 locations as it enters its third weekend in release. At this time we're expecting a dip around -40% or so for a $6 million three-day and a domestic cume nearing $48 million.
In limited release, Bleecker Street will debut The Art of Self-Defense into seven theaters this weekend before it will expand into over 500 locations next weekend. Additionally, Entertainment Studios will debut the documentary Bethany Hamilton: Unstoppablein 205 theaters and A24 will release The Farewell in one theater
This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- Spider-Man: Far from Home (4,634 theaters) - $41.7 M
- Toy Story 4 (4,210 theaters) - $22.0 M
- Crawl (3,170 theaters) - $12.5 M
- Stuber (3,050 theaters) - $7.5 M
- Yesterday (2,755 theaters) - $6.2 M
- Aladdin (2,557 theaters) - $5.3 M
- Annabelle Comes Home (3,209 theaters) - $4.7 M
- Midsommar (2,707 theaters) - $3.0 M
- The Secret Life of Pets 2 (2,308 theaters) - $2.8 M
- Avengers: Endgame (1,443 theaters) - $1.9 M
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