'Avengers: Endgame' Set for Global Domination, Can It Deliver a $300M Domestic Debut?
by Brad Brevet
April 24, 2019
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: With an estimated $156.7 million, Disney and Marvel's Avengers: Endgame is off to an unheard of, record breaking start, en route to what could be a $345+ million three-day opening. On Thursday night the film delivered the largest Thursday night preview gross with $60 million and now the film's first full day is already the largest single day, opening day and Friday on top of being the fastest ever to $100 million, fastest to $150 million and widest opening of all-time. Heading into the weekend a $300 million start almost seemed aggressive, but it has since become an afterthought.
In fact, Endgame's opening day gross (including previews) is enough to be considered the second largest overall weekend of 2019 so far all on its own. Suffice to say, we are looking at the largest weekend at the domestic box office ever with Endgame likely achieving that mark on its own.
Internationally, Avengers: Endgame has already grossed an estimated $487 million as of the end of Friday for a global haul that currently stands at $644 million. As a result, the film has already broken the record for the highest opening weekend internationally of all-time, topping the $443 million delivered by The Fate of the Furious back in 2017.
The global tally is also already a record, topping the $640.5 million by Avengers: Infinity War just last year, though it is important to remember that film didn't open in China day-and-date with the rest of the world and Endgame has already grossed over $217 million in China. All told, the film's current performance puts it in a position where it just might top $1 billion worldwide in its first five days of release.
Current market leaders are as follows:
- China - $217.4 million
- UK - $27.0 million
- Korea - $23.0 million
- Australia - $19.7 million
- Germany - $15.2 million
- France - $13.5 million
- Italy - $13.4 million
- Brazil - $12.5 million
- Mexico - $12.5 million
- Philippines - $10.0 million
- India - $9.0 million
- Indonesia - $7.7 million
- Hong Kong - $7.1 million
You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.
FRIDAY UPDATE #2: Disney is reporting matinees for Avengers: Endgame are currently tracking toward a $140+ million opening day, including last night's $60 million from previews. As a result, the studio is "cautiously" projecting a three-day opening in the $300 million range.
For comparison, Avengers: Infinity War brought in $106.3 million in its first day and Star Wars: The Force Awakens delivered $119.1 million.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Marvel Studios's Avengers: Endgame posted a record-breaking $60 million from Thursday evening previews, the highest preview gross ever ahead of Star Wars: The Force Awakens, delivered $57 million back in December 2015. The film will now begin playing in a record 4,662 locations starting today as it will surely deliver the largest domestic opening ever, the only question now seems to be just how high will it climb?
Additionally, the film has now earned an estimated $305 million in its first two days of international release. After opening in 25 material markets on Wednesday, the film added another 21 yesterday, which included a $15.3 million launch in the UK, the largest single day in the market ever and +86% higher than Avengers: Infinity War's opening day in the market. The film's $7 million launch in Brazil yesterday was also a single-day market record.
In addition to Endgame's domestic debut today, it will continue to roll-out internationally, debut in Mexico, Spain, India and Japan, which leaves only the Monday, April 29 opening in Russia.
We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.
THURSDAY UPDATE #2: Online ticket retailer Fandango.com now reports over 8,000 showtimes of Endgame have already sold out on Fandango as it has now officially become the company's largest pre-seller, topping Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The company also reports the nation's theater chains are constantly posting new opening weekend showtimes and adding new screens for Endgame on Fandango.
THURSDAY AM UPDATE: The launch of Disney and Marvel's Avengers: Endgame opened yesterday in 25 material markets and posted an estimated $169 million, including preview showings. The film's launch in China was an industry single day record, delivering $107.5 million, including midnight showings, but the records didn't end there.
Debuts in Australia ($7m), Philippines ($3.9m), Hong Kong ($2.7m), Taiwan ($2.6m), Thailand ($2.4m) and Malaysia ($2m) were all single day records. Indonesia ($2.5m) delivered the largest all-time industry opening day while Germany ($5.6m) delivered the third highest opening day in the market and Italy ($5.8m) the second highest opening day.
In France, the film opened with an estimated $6 million, a record opening day for a film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the second largest opening took place in South Korea with an estimated $8.4 million, a record number of admissions for an opening day in the market.
The film is currently pacing ahead of Avengers: Infinity War in all markets and will open in the UK and Brazil today with early indications pointing to a record setting midnight performance in the UK.
Endgame will open domestically tomorrow in a massive, 4,662 locations, which includes over 3,900 3D locations, 410 IMAX screens, 785 Premium Large Format screens and 250 D-Box/4D locations, with previews beginning tonight at 6 PM.
We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Thursday preview grosses come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: In 2008 we saw the birth of what has come to be known as the Marvel Cinematic Universe with the release of Iron Man. Eleven years, 21 films and $18.6 billion in worldwide ticket sales later, that universe has come to redefine the idea of the modern blockbuster. This weekend Avengers: Endgame will give audiences the ending they were promised all those years ago, concluding the events that began with last year's record-breaking release of Avengers: Infinity War, en route to a sure-fire record breaking performance of its own.
Before a single frame outside of the trailers had been seen, Disney and Marvel Studios's Avengers: Endgame began breaking records. In its first seven days of pre-sales, the film sold "five times" as many tickets as Avengers: Infinity War according to online ticket retailer Fandango.com and since then it remains the company's top pre-seller of all-time. Further more, the film will open in a record number of theaters, debuting in over 4,600 locations this weekend with thousands of showings already sold out, and several locations set to remain open 24 hours a day throughout the weekend. To that end, on Tuesday, one theater began playing each film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe back-to-back-to-back leading up to the debut of the new film, complete with shower and food breaks.
Overall, Fandango.com tells Mojo, on top of Endgame pacing to be the online ticket retailer's biggest pre-seller of all-time, it broke Fandango's best first-day sales record (previously set by Star Wars: The Force Awakens) in just six hours. Additionally, Endgame has sold out over 4,000 showtimes and interest in the upcoming release has resulted in the site's FandangoNOW service seeing a nearly 50% increase in transactions on Marvel titles in the weeks since Endgame tickets went on-sale.
That being said, forecasting the film's opening beyond anticipating a record performance is difficult to accurately predict. Given the hype, overall reach of the film and the mostly positive reviews (78 on Metacritic and Certified Fresh at 97% on RottenTomatoes) a debut reaching $300 million isn't at all unrealistic. In fact, such a result would be fitting considering it was The Avengers in 2012 that became the first film to ever gross over $200 million in its opening weekend. The better question, perhaps, is to wonder just how many records will Endgame break?
Records the film will almost certainly challenge related to this weekend alone include:
- Largest Thursday Preview Gross
Current Record: Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $57 million
- Largest Friday, Opening Day and Single Day
Current Record: Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $119,119,282
- Opening Weekend, April Opening, Spring Opening, PG-13 Opening and 3-Day Gross
Current Record: Avengers: Infinity War - $257,698,183
- #1 Movie Market Share
Current Record: Avengers: Age of Ultron - 84.5%
- Saturday Gross
Current Record: Avengers: Infinity War - $82,131,612
- Sunday Gross
Current Record: Avengers: Infinity War - $69,231,632
- Fastest to $150M, $200M and $250M
Current Record: Avengers: Infinity War
- Fastest to $300M
Current Record: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
- Top Opening Theater Average and Top Theater Average
Current Record: Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $59,982
Beyond those records, this will help contribute to what should be the largest weekend ever, a record the film may have a shot at breaking all on its own. The current record belongs to the weekend of December 18-20, 2015 when Star Wars: The Force Awakens debuted with $247.9 million. The runner-up is also the April record, which currently belongs to the weekend when Infinity War opened last year.
The film's domestic opening, however, isn't all we'll be tracking. Endgame debuts day and date in virtually all major territories beginning today with its release in China, France, Germany, Italy, Australia, Korea and many others. In fact, the film's opening in China is already estimated to have topped $107 million, which includes $28.2 million from Tuesday's midnight showings. The performance is the highest opening day of all-time in China.
Looking ahead, Endgame will open in the UK and Brazil tomorrow followed by a launch in Spain, Japan and Mexico on Friday along with virtually every other market outside of Russia where the film opens on Monday, April 29. To say expectations are for the film to break not only the domestic opening record but the international and worldwide opening records is something of a foregone conclusion.
Currently, Infinity War holds the worldwide opening record with $640.5 million, doing so without the advantage of China, where the film opened a couple weeks later with $191 million. Meanwhile Fate of the Furious holds the international opening record at $443.1 million. Look for those two records to fall this weekend as some analysts have Endgame targeting as much as $900+ million worldwide.
This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated throughout the week as new details are released, including Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- Avengers: Endgame - $300.0 M
- The Curse of La Llorona - $10.5 M
- Shazam! - $9.1 M
- Captain Marvel - $7.3 M
- Breakthrough - $6.1 M
- Dumbo - $3.8 M
- Little - $3.8 M
- Missing Link - $2.4 M
- Pet Sematary - $2.3 M
- Us - $1.9 M
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