'LEGO Movie 2' and 'What Men Want' To Lead Weekend Newcomers
by Brad Brevet
February 7, 2019
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: It's looking like a much weaker weekend than expected, thanks mostly to a severe underperformance from WB's The LEGO Movie 2, which brought in an estimated $8.5 million on Friday, which included $2.1 million in preview grosses, as the film is now looking at a three-day around $30+ million. This would put the film's debut more than -50% off the first film's debut.
Paramount's release of What Men Want is performing mostly as expected, bringing in an estimated $6.6 million on Friday, en route to an $18+ million debut.
Lionsgate's release of Summit's Cold Pursuit is also right on expectations if not a bit higher, bringing in an estimated $3.6 million on Friday, heading toward a $10+ million opening.
Orion's The Prodigy brought in an estimated $2 million on Friday and is currently expected to fall a bit shy of $6 million for the three-day.
You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Leading the charge on Thursday night was WB's The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part with $2.1 million from previews beginning at 4PM. That figure also includes $600k from a preview event back in late January. Comparatively, The LEGO Movie only brought in $400k in previews ahead of its $69 million opening, while The LEGO Batman Movie brought in $2.2 million in previews ahead of a $53 million debut back in February 2017.
Paramount's What Men Want grossed a strong, $1.25 million in previews, outperforming the $600k in previews for Nobody's Fool and trailing the $1.7 million in previews for Girls Trip.
Lionsgate's release of Summit's Cold Pursuit grossed an estimated $540k from Thursday previews, which trails the $700k in previews for Liam Neeson's The Commuter.
Finally, Orion's The Prodigy brought in $350,054 from previews last night in ~1,900 locations, which trails all three of the industry comps referenced in our previews below. The performance is closer to films such as The Lazarus Effect, which brought in $344k in previews ahead of a $10.2 million opening and Unfriended: Dark Web, which also delivered $350k in previews ahead of a $3.5 million debut.
We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: Following last weekend's poor showing at the domestic box office, February gets underway in earnest this weekend with four new releases including The LEGO Movie 2 and What Men Want, both of which are looking at strong starts. Additionally, Lionsgate release of Summit's Cold Pursuit and Orion's The Prodigy will hope for solid starts, given their budgets, in the high single digits as all four new releases hope to be the top four films on the weekend box office chart.
Looking at an easy #1 finish is Warner Bros.'s release of The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, which will open in over 4,300 locations — including showings in 2D, 3D, IMAX, DBOX and more — with the studio anticipating a debut anywhere from $50-55 million. This projection mostly lines up with what we're seeing, with IMDb page view data trending similar to, or out-performing, comp titles such as Kung Fu Panda 3 and Hotel Transylvania 2. That said, we're anticipating a performance on the higher end of that range, expecting it to top $55 million for the weekend.
LEGO Movie 2 serves as something of an interesting test for the LEGO franchise, which saw The LEGO Movie debut with massive $69 million in February 2014 before going on to gross over $257 million domestically and nearly $470 million worldwide. However, since then there's been something of a downward trend. The LEGO Batman Movie debuted with $53 million and went on to gross over $175 million domestically while The LEGO Ninjago Movie managed just over $59 million for the entirety of its domestic run in late 2017.
Paramount's What Men Want, led by Taraji P. Henson, is one title that could really over perform this weekend. Studio expectations are set at $18-20 million, and we're already anticipating a better performance than that. A look at IMDb page view data shows What Men Want pacing well ahead of last November's Nobody's Fool ($13.7m opening) and while it is pacing behind July 2017's Girls Trip ($31.2m opening), it's not so far behind that to anticipating a debut that could reach $24+ million isn't at all unreasonable. We're not going to go quite that high with our forecast, however, remaining someone cautious. For now we're projecting a $21+ million debut, though we won't be the least surprised to see it climb higher as some pre-release tracking we've seen points to a performance that could reach $26 million.
Look for Lionsgate's release of Summit's Cold Pursuit starring Liam Neeson to land in third place for the weekend. The studio is anticipating a debut in the high single digits for the release, which will open in 2,630 theaters this weekend and we're seeing similar trends, anticipating a debut right around $9-10 million with potential for a possible upside. Last January we expected Neeson's The Commuter to debut with $10 million over the three-day Martin Luther King Jr. weekend and the film managed a $13 million three-day debut. A look at IMDb page view data shows Cold Pursuit on a similar trajectory, though it shouldn't be ignored that some of the interest in the film could be due to the controversy surrounding Neeson's recent comments in the press.
Orion will release their horror-thriller The Prodigy into over 2,500 theaters this weekend with the expectation for a debut anywhere from $7-9 million. Industry comps being used for the film include The Witch ($8.8m opening), The Gift ($11.8m opening) and The Gallows ($9.8m opening) and while IMDb page view data isn't proving reliable using those comps, additional data analysis has us anticipating a debut in the $7+ million range. Added to that, who knows, maybe the exclusive debut trailer for the Child's Play remake might even add a few more dollars to the opening weekend performance.
Look for STXFilms's The Upside to round out the top five adding another $5-6 million this weekend for a domestic cume topping $84 million.
In limited release, Focus will debut Everybody Knows in four theaters while The Orchard releases Under the Eiffel Tower and Ammo issues Chokehold.
All four of these weekend's new releases will hold previews screenings with all but The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part beginning their preview showings at 7PM while LEGO 2 screenings get underway at 4PM.
This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part (4,303 theaters) - $55.0 M
- What Men Want (2,912 theaters) - $21.0 M
- Cold Pursuit (2,630 theaters) - $9.5 M
- The Prodigy (2,530 theaters) - $7.0 M
- The Upside (3,372 theaters) - $5.7 M
- Glass (3,253 theaters) - $5.5 M
- Miss Bala (2,203 theaters) - $3.8 M
- Aquaman (2,202 theaters) - $3.0 M
- Green Book (2,149 theaters) - $2.7 M
- Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse (1,726 theaters) - $2.4 M
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