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'Glass' Looks to Threepeat Over Soft Super Bowl Weekend

by Brad Brevet
 

 
January 31, 2019

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: The weekend is playing out mostly as expected, with Universal's Glass landing the top spot while STX's The Upside finishes in a close second. Sony's Miss Bala is looking at a soft, $6-7 million debut following an estimated $2.7 million on Friday, finishing the weekend in third position.

Additionally, WB's They Shall Not Grow Old brought in an estimated $880k on Friday, which includes an undisclosed amount from Thursday previews, and is currently expected to land at the bottom of the weekend top ten or just outside of it with ~$2 million or so.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Sony's action thriller Miss Bala took in $650K for Thursday night previews starting at 7PM in 2,050 locations.

Additionally, while results have yet to be provided, Warner Bros. began showing They Shall Not Grow Old on Thursday starting at 4PM PST. The film will begin playing in 735 locations this weekend, with 65% of the overall screens showing the film in 3D.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: It's looking like February will begin with more of a whimper than a bang as the Super Bowl is likely to garner most of the attention this weekend before The LEGO Movie 2 hits theaters next weekend. This weekend could, however, still have a little intrigue. Right now we're forecasting Glass will finish at #1 for a third week in a row, but there is a shot The Upside could pull ahead in what might be a tight race. Additionally, the lone new wide release is Sony's Miss Bala while Warner Bros. is finally giving Peter Jackson's WWI documentary They Shall Not Grow Old a formal release.

Universal's Glass has taken the #1 spot at the weekend box office and will be looking to make it three in a row this week as we anticipate the film dipping around -50% for a $9.5 million three-day, finishing the weekend with a domestic cume nearing $90 million. Whether that's enough to take the top spot depends on what kind of performance STX's The Upside can muster as it dipped just -20% last weekend and right now we're forecasting a drop slightly better than -25% and a $9 million performance, pushing its domestic cume over $75 million as it is already approaching a 4x multiplier. Between the two films, Glass feels the most vulnerable when it comes to losing audience share to the Super Bowl and it is shedding 179 theaters this weekend, while The Upside is adding 191.

Sony's release of Miss Bala, a remake of the 2011 feature of the same name, stars Gina Rodriguez in the title role under the direction of Catherine Hardwicke. We've seen tracking for the film as low as $6 million and as high as $10 million for the weekend, but we are keeping our expectations on the lower end, anticipating a debut just above $6 million for the $15 million production, which will debut in 2,203 locations this weekend. Previews begin Thursday evening at 7PM.

In fourth, look for Universal's Green Book, which re-entered the top ten last weekend on the heels of its five Oscar nominations. This weekend the film is expanding even further, adding 216 locations, and we're looking for a small, -18% dip from the Oscar contender for a three-day performance around $4.5 million and a domestic cume climbing over $55 million.

Rounding out the top five, one film to keep an eye on will be Peter Jackson's World War I documentary They Shall Not Grow Old, which has already grossed over $8.3 million from just three separate days in release, two last December and most recently on January 21. This weekend it will begin playing in 735 locations and we're currently expecting it to deliver somewhere around $4.5 million for the weekend, but this is hardly an easy release to forecast.

In limited release, Bleecker will debut Arctic starring Mads Mikkelsen into four locations; Greenwich is releasing Piercing into 25 theaters; and Fox International will debut Ek Ladki Ko Dekha Toh Aisa Laga in 193 locations.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

  • Glass (3,665 theaters) - $9.5 M
  • The Upside (3,568 theaters) - $9.0 M
  • Miss Bala (2,203 theaters) - $6.2 M
  • Green Book (2,646 theaters) - $4.5 M
  • They Shall Not Grow Old (735 theaters) - $4.5 M
  • Aquaman (2,926 theaters) - $4.4 M
  • Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse (2.234 theaters) - $4.1 M
  • The Kid Who Would be King (3,528 theaters) - $3.7 M
  • A Dog's Way Home (2,962 theaters) - $3.2 M
  • Mary Poppins Returns (1,704 theaters) - $2.3 M

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