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'Glass' Set for Second Weekend at #1 as Oscar Nominees Expand

by Brad Brevet
 

 
January 24, 2019

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: It's looking to be a rather soft weekend overall with Universal's Glass delivering an estimated $4.9 million on Friday, heading toward a $16+ million three-day, signaling a -60% drop from last weekend.

Meanwhile, the weekend's newcomers are crashing with Fox's The Kid Who Would be King debuting with an estimated $1.7 million on Friday, looking at a $6.5-7 million debut. Aviron's Serenity is struggling even more, bringing in just $1.6 million on Friday (including an undisclosed amount from Thursday night previews) and expected to debut with only $4.5 million for the weekend.

One standout performance is coming from Universal's Green Book, which expanded into 2,430 locations (+1,518) following this week's Oscar nominations and brought in an estimated $1.4 million on Friday and is looking at a $5+ million three-day.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: No updates this morning as Fox's The Kid That Would be King did not hold previews last night and while Aviron did have preview screenings of Serenity they are not reporting them separately from Friday's grosses.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: A few weeks into the new year and January 2019 is currently pacing ~13% behind last year and this weekend's new releases aren't likely to have much of an impact. Aviron's Serenity is looking for a mid-to-high single digit debut and Fox's The Kid Who Would be King hoping to inch into double digits. Meanwhile Universal's Glass will take advantage of the lack of competition and finish #1 again while a crop of this year's newly announced Oscar nominees expand back into theaters.

The weekend's top spot will once again go to Universal's Glass, which enters its second weekend with an eye for a $16.5 million sophomore session, signaling a drop around -59% following its $40.3 million three-day debut over the holiday weekend last week. Should our forecast hold the film will be looking to finish around $70 million by end of day Sunday.

STXFilms's The Upside is expected to continue its strong box office run following a -26% drop last weekend. This week the film enters its third week in release and is adding theaters, playing in 3,377 locations (+57), and we're anticipating a drop around -20% for a $12 million three-day and a domestic cume right around $62 million by the end of the weekend.

Third place is where we expect to find Fox's release of the family feature The Kid Who Would be King, which is debuting in 3,521 locations. While the studio is hoping for a $10 million debut we're having a hard time going that high as the film has seen such little interest when looking at IMDb page view data leading up to release. In fact, from that perspective it has been difficult to find comps and even the theater count seems a little aggressive as we would have expected a debut in closer to 3,000 locations. As such, we're anticipating a performance anywhere from $9-10 million for the weekend, though the film could benefit on Saturday and Sunday from solid word of mouth and positive reviews, which currently stand at 87% on RottenTomatoes and a score of 68 on Metacritic.

WB's Aquaman is looking to top $315 million domestically this weekend as the superhero feature enters its sixth week in release. We're anticipating a drop around 38% or so for a $6+ million three-day. The film should also become the largest worldwide release ever for a film based on a DC Comics property as it currently stands just $10.4 million behind The Dark Knight Rises ($1.0849b).

Fifth place for the weekend could go a lot of ways. We're going with Sony's Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, which is only losing 329 theaters this weekend. Should our forecast for a three-day around $5.5 million hold we expect it to end the weekend as Sony Animation's second highest grossing domestic release of all time with over $168 million domestically.

That said, Sony's A Dog's Way Home is only losing nine locations as it enters its third weekend and it too looks to deliver over $5 million for the weekend.

Another possibility for that fifth slot could be FUNimation's Dragon Ball Super: Broly. Last weekend the film delivered an impressive $9.8 million from just 1,238 locations, but as of press time we still haven't received a theater count for this weekend. Should it remain in a similar number of locations, don't be surprised to see it challenge for a spot in the top five for a second straight weekend.

This weekend will also see the recent Oscar nominees getting a theatrical bump, led by Green Book, which will take its five Oscar nominations and double its largest, previous theater count as it heads into 2,426 (+1,514) locations this weekend. If the film can merely manage $2,000 per theater this weekend we're talking about a top ten performance, but we wouldn't be at all surprised to see it climb even higher and serve as yet another challenger for a spot within the top five as well.

Finally we come to Aviron's Serenity, which is debuting in 2,561 locations with the studio anticipating a debut in the mid-to-high single digit millions, which could push it into the top five but unfavorable reviews — 48 on Metacritic and 18% on RottenTomatoes — and a lack of awareness could hamper its potential. Our analysis does have us anticipating a debut anywhere from $5-7 million with potential for an over-performance, but we're currently leaning toward the lower end of that forecast. One comparison we've been keeping a close eye on is Unforgettable, which debuted in April 2017 with $4.8 million and a comparison of IMDb page view performances for the two films shows Serenity outperforming that film over the two weeks leading up to release.

Getting back to the expanding Oscar contenders, Annapurna's Vice will expand to 1,557 locations (+382), WB's A Star is Born will play in 1,192 theaters (+777), Bohemian Rhapsody will play in 1,423 theaters (+1,177), The Favourite will play in 1,540 theaters (+517) and Spike Lee's BlacKkKlansman is heading back into 171 theaters this weekend.

Finally, one last Oscar contender to mention is Sony Classics's Never Look Away, which was nominated for two Oscars — Cinematography and Best Foreign Language — and it will debut in New York's Paris Theater this weekend followed by a debut in Los Angeles on February 8.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

  • Glass (3,843 theaters) - $16.5 M
  • The Upside (3,377 theaters) - $12.0 M
  • The Kid Who Would be King (3,521 theaters) - $9.0 M
  • Aquaman (3,134 theaters) - $6.3 M
  • Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse (2,383 theaters) - $5.6 M
  • Dragon Ball Super: Broly (??? theaters) - $5.5 M
  • A Dog's Way Home (3,081 theaters) - $5.4 M
  • Green Book (2,426 theaters) - $5.2 M
  • Serenity (2,561 theaters) - $5.0 M
  • Escape Room (2,192 theaters) - $3.4 M

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