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'Ralph' and 'Creed' Set to Repeat atop Post-Thanksgiving Weekend Box Office

by Brad Brevet
 

 
November 29, 2018

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: In terms of the weekend's holdovers, things are playing out mostly as expected with Disney's Ralph Breaks the Internet set to repeat at #1 after a $5.74 million Friday and Creed II right behind it with an estimated $4.95 million on Friday. Ralph will separate itself from the pack over the weekend as families head to theaters, eventually giving the animated feature a three-day around $25-26 million.

As for Sony's release of the R-rated Screen Gems horror The Possession of Hannah Grace, it's performing much better than Mojo's forecast below, pulling in an estimated $2.56 million on Friday, which nearly matches our entire weekend forecast. The film is expected to pull in $6.4 million for the weekend and it received a "C-" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Sony and Screen Gems's R-rated horror thriller The Possession of Hannah Grace took in $625,000 from Thursday night previews starting at 7PM in 1,866 locations. The performance is much higher than pre-weekend comp Incarnate, which brought in $125k from previews ahead of a $2.5 million opening. It's also more than double the $300k from previews Unsane brought in ahead of a $3.7 million debut.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: Following last weekend's monster performance, led by Disney's Ralph Breaks the Internet and MGM's Creed II, this weekend sees just one new wide release in Screen Gems's latest horror The Possession of Hannah Grace, which means the story will remain with last weekend's top titles as 2018 continues its torrid pace.

After delivering the second largest five-day Thanksgiving weekend opening ever, Disney's Ralph Breaks the Internet is looking at a second weekend at #1 and a domestic gross that should finish at or near $120 million come end of day Sunday. Right now we're expecting a second weekend drop right around -54% for a sophomore frame totaling $26 million.

MGM's Creed II could face some competition for second in Universal and Illumination's The Grinch, but we're expecting it to edge out the animated title with a drop right around -50% for an $18 million second weekend and a domestic cume right around $82 million come the end of the weekend. Truth of the matter is, this is a tough one to forecast. Creed II's debut was the largest Thanksgiving weekend opening ever for a live action title, topping the first film's five day performance by ~$14 million. To that point, Creed dropped -49% in its second weekend, but it played better throughout the week compared to its sequel, though that could also be attributed to a weaker crowd of competing titles back in November 2015.

As for The Grinch, we're looking for a -43% drop and $17.3 million this weekend after it held on quite well last weekend in the face of Ralph's debut. Should our forecast hold, the film will top $200 million domestically by the end of the weekend, moving into the top ten for the year.

Continuing down the line, WB's Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald should land in fourth place with $15 million or so for a domestic cume around $138 million by the end of the weekend. Of course, this means it remains well behind the first film, which topped $183 million by the end of its third Sunday in release.

Rounding out the top five is Fox's Bohemian Rhapsody, which featured the best hold among holdovers in the top ten last weekend* when it dropped just -12.7%. This weekend we're looking for a drop around -45% and a fifth weekend performance right around $7.75 million, which would push the film's domestic gross over $163 million should our forecast hold.

Outside the top five is where we find Screen Gems's release of The Possession of Hannah Grace. The R-rated film is set to debut in 2,065 theater with the studio anticipating a three-day performance around $3 million comparing to films such as Incarnate ($2.5m opening), The Green Inferno ($3.5m opening) and Unfriended: Dark Web ($3.6m opening).

To that point, IMDb page view data shows Hannah Grace pacing a bit ahead of Unsane ($3.76m opening) over the two weeks leading up to release as well as ahead of Sony's comp to Incarnate. However, the same data shows the film pacing well behind Fox's Morgan, which opened with a dismal $2 million back in 2016. All told, we're looking at a debut that could come short of the studio's expectations, coming in around $2.8 million, battling it out for the ninth and tenth spot for the weekend, leading to a short-lived theatrical run.

In limited release, Warner Bros. will debut Head Full of Honey in four locations; IFC will release DriverX into two theaters; and Orion will open Anna and the Apocalypse in five theaters.

Meanwhile, Fox Searchlight will expand the release of Yorgos Lanthimos's The Favourite after its chart-topping $105,603 per theater average last weekend from just four theaters. This weekend the film expands into seven additional markets — San Francisco, Dallas, Austin, Washington DC, Boston, Chicago, and Phoenix — playing in a total of 34 locations.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

  • Ralph Breaks the Internet (4,017 theaters) - $25.9 M
  • Creed II (3,576 theaters) - $18.1 M
  • Dr. Seuss' The Grinch (3,793 theaters) - $17.3 M
  • Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (3,929 theaters) - $15.6 M
  • Bohemian Rhapsody (3,007 theaters) - $7.7 M
  • Instant Family (3,110 theaters) - $6.5 M
  • Robin Hood (2,827 theaters) - $4.3 M
  • Widows (2,393 theaters) - $4.2 M
  • Green Book (1,065 theaters) - $2.8 M
  • The Possession of Hannah Grace (2,065 theaters) - $2.8 M

* Excluding Green Book's expansion performance

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