News

'Halloween' Set for Second Weekend at #1 as Holdovers Continue to Dominate

by Brad Brevet
 

 
October 25, 2018

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Universal's Halloween delivered an estimated $10 million on Friday and is looking at a second weekend atop the box office. Current estimates have the film heading toward a $30 million weekend for a cume topping $124 million by the end of the weekend.

The weekend's widest new release is Lionsgate's Hunter Killer, which brought in an estimated $2.55 million on Friday and is currently expected to finish around $7-7.5 million for the weekend. The film received an "A-" CinemaScore.

Pure Flix's Indivisible brought in an estimated $605,000 and is looking at a weekend around $1.6 million. The film received an "A" CinemaScore.

Universal's Johnny English Strikes Again brought in an estimated $515,000 and is expected to finish around $1.5 million for the weekend.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Lionsgate's release of Summit Premiere's Hunter Killer took in $420,000 during previews Thursday night at approximately 2,200 locations. This is just ahead of films such as Brick Mansions ($9.5m opening), Sleepless ($8.3m opening) and Mechanic: Resurrection ($7.45m opening).

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: October 2018 is still running at a record pace. As of October 24, the month was pacing +49% higher than last year, not to mention +7.8% ahead of 2014, the largest October on record, though that's about to change by the end of this weekend. That said, it won't be the weekend's new releases doing the heavy lifting, but the weekend's holdovers, starting with last weekend's chart-topping horror hit Halloween. The weekend's new wide releases will mostly debut in the low-to-mid single digit millions with Lionsgate's Hunter Killer expected to top the week's crop of new releases.

Looking to repeat at #1 is Universal's release of Blumhouse and Miramax's Halloween, which delivered a smashing $76.2 million opening last weekend, the second largest October opening ever. When it comes to its sophomore session we looked at other R-rated horror hits such as It, The Conjuring, Paranormal Activity 3 and The Nun, which dropped, on average, -57.45% in their second weekends. The best drop of the lot was The Conjuring's -46.9% slide while The Nun's -66.1% drop was the largest. It, despite its record-setting $123.4 million debut, dropped just -51.3% in its second weekend and, like Halloween, it received a "B+" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.

As far as Halloween's sophomore frame is concerned, we're expecting it to out perform the average of the four films mentioned, dropping around -54% and delivering a three-day around $35 million. Should this forecast hold we're looking for the film to inch near $130 million domestically by the end of the weekend. However, given the current proximity to Halloween and the likelihood for more people than normal looking for a scare this weekend, there is room for an even better hold, perhaps somewhere around -50% (if not lower) and as much as $38+ million for the weekend.

Like last weekend we're expecting A Star is Born to top Venom for the #2 and #3 spots respectively. Both films currently rank within the top 15 all-time in terms of films that opened in October and after this weekend A Star is Born will move into the top ten as it approaches $150 million domestically and Venom should end up around $188 million domestically.

In fourth we come to the first of the weekend's new releases in Lionsgate's release of Summit Premiere's Hunter Killer, an action-thriller starring Gerard Butler as a submarine captain set to debut in 2,720 locations. Studio expectations are for a debut in the high single digits while we're looking at comps pointing us toward an opening around $6-8 million.

IMDb page view data shows the film pacing closely to the Sylvester Stallone and Arnold Schwarzenegger feature Escape Plan over the two weeks leading up to release. That film opened in 2,883 locations with nearly $10 million back in October 2013. However, Hunter Killer didn't generate nearly as much interest in the lead up to the two week window, pacing well behind the Sly and Arnold feature over the full 90 days leading up to release. Additionally, the film is pacing behind Butler's action-thriller Den of Thieves, which debuted in 2,432 theaters back in January with over $15 million. That said, right now we're looking for an opening around $7.5 million with a little wiggle room on either side.

Sony's Goosebumps 2 should round out the top five, pulling in around $6.4 million for the three-day as its domestic cume tops $37 million by the end of the weekend.

Elsewhere in the top ten, A24 is expanding the reach of Jonah Hill's Mid90s to 1,206 locations (+1,202) after its strong, $64,539 per theater limited debut last weekend. The film debuted at the Toronto Film Festival in September and has received high marks from critics, scoring a 69 on Metacritic. As always, expansions such as this are difficult to predict, but comparing to A24's Eighth Grade, which had a similar per theater average from four locations in its limited weekend before expanding, we're expecting this one to jump to a three-day anywhere from $3-5 million. For now we're remaining on the conservative end of that range, but won't be surprised to see it climb higher.

Just outside the top ten we find Universal's Johnny English Strikes Again in 544 theaters and Pure Flix's Indivisible debuting in 830 locations. Neither looks as if it will top $3 million for the weekend, falling short of the weekend top ten.

Also keep an eye on Amazon Studios's Beautiful Boy, which is expanding into 189 locations (+141) as it enters its third week in release. The film has played well in limited release and will be going nationwide next weekend.

In limited release, Amazon Studios will debut Suspiria in two theaters in advance of its nationwide expansion next weekend; Roadside will issue Viper Club into three locations; and Sony is releasing El Pacto into ten theaters.

Additionally, Rialto is hoping to take advantage of the attention surrounding John Carpenter by way of the recent release of Halloween as they release a new 4K Restoration of Carpenter's 1980 classic The Fog into 44 locations.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

  • Halloween (3,989 theaters) - $35.0 M
  • A Star is Born (3,904 theaters) - $14.3 M
  • Venom (3,567 theaters) - $12.0 M
  • Hunter Killer (2,720 theaters) - $7.5 M
  • Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween (3,723 theaters) - $6.4 M
  • The Hate U Give (2,375 theaters) - $5.2 M
  • First Man (2,958 theaters) - $4.7 M
  • Smallfoot (2,662 theaters) - $4.1 M
  • Mid90s (1,206 theaters) - $3.5 M
  • Night School (1,989 theaters) - $2.9 M

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