It's Going to be a 'Crazy Rich' Labor Day Weekend
by Brad Brevet
August 30, 2018
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: With an estimated $5.86 million on Friday, WB's Crazy Rich Asians is on its way to a $23+ million three-day and a four-day right around $30 million as the film's cume pushes toward $120 million.
As for the weekend's newcomers, MGM's Operation Finale is leading the way after a $1.7 million Friday, heading toward what's looking like a $6 million three-day and a four-day around $7.5-8 million. The film's six-day cume since opening on Wednesday should end up around $9.4 million. The film earned an "A-" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.
Sony's Searching is outperforming even our aggressive forecast after bringing in an estimated $1.95 million on Friday. The film is now looking at a $6+ million three-day and a four-day around $7 million. The film received an "A" CinemaScore over its opening weekend.
Lionsgate's Kin will fall outside the top ten after an estimated $1 million on Friday as it heads toward a three-day around $3.3 million and a four-day debut just over $4 million. The film receive a "B+" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.
Finally, Lionsgate's release of Pantelion's Ya Veremos brought in an estimated $525,000 and is looking at a three-day gross around $1.8 million and a $2.25 million four-day from just 369 screens. The film received an "A" CinemaScore.
You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Sony's Searching took in $425K from Thursday night previews beginning at 5PM in 1,119 locations. Sony is still anticipating a $3 million holiday run.
Additionally, Kin, from Lionsgate's Summit Entertainment brought in $250k from preview showings in ~1,800 theaters last night. Pantelion's Ya Veremos also held previews last night in just under 300 theaters, bringing in $50k. The film opens on 369 screens beginning today.
We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: Look forward to another "crazy rich" weekend as the Labor Day holiday will push Crazy Rich Asians near (if not over) $120 million domestically. Meanwhile, Sony is expanding the reach of their cyber-thriller Searching after its limited debut last weekend while Lionsgate releases Kin and MGM's Operation Finale continues its roll-out following its Wednesday opening.
Continuing the theme from the past two weekends, Warner Bros. is looking at the weekend's top two slots beginning with the smash hit Crazy Rich Asians, which has brought in over $86 million domestically in its first 15 days of release and is currently pacing ahead of films such as Bridesmaids and The Help at the same point in the release cycle. Now it's looking to push toward $120 million by the end of day Monday as we're currently anticipating a three-day in the same vicinity as last weekend, finishing around $25 million, followed by a Monday gross at or near $5 million for a $30+ million four-day performance.
In second look for WB's The Meg to chomp down another $12 million for the three-day and a four-day total over $15 million, pushing the film's domestic gross over $125 million after 25 days in release.
Paramount's Mission: Impossible - Fallout is headed toward a sixth straight weekend in the top five, looking to deliver a $9.2 million three-day and a four-day weekend nearing $12 million for a domestic gross reaching $209 million. Should our forecast hold true, Fallout could inch over Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol to become the second highest grossing film in the M:I franchise, and end up right around $6 million behind Mission: Impossible II's franchise-leading $215.4 million.
We're anticipating Disney's Christopher Robin will see a 15% gain compared to last weekend and bring in around $7.2 million for the three-day and a four-day right around $9.3 million. This would push the film's domestic cume right around $90 million as it enters its fifth weekend in release.
Rounding out the top five we find the first of the week's three new wide releases in MGM's Operation Finale, which began playing in in 1,818 locations on Wednesday, and delivered $1 million. Leading up to release we've been tracking this one alongside the likes of 2015's A Walk in the Woods and 2016's The Infiltrator and, as it turns out, the film's opening day settled between the two films. IMDb page view data shows Operation Finale pacing a bit behind both films, though its positive trajectory over the course of the 90 days leading up to release has us anticipating a performance closer to Walk in the Woods, anticipating a three-day around $7.2 million and a $9 million four-day weekend, which should push the film's six-day cume over $10 million.
Rounding out the top ten is where we expect Sony's Searching to land following the film's strong limited debut last weekend in nine theaters, pulling in $43,197 per location. The film expands into 1,207 locations on Friday with preview showings tonight beginning at 5PM and we're expecting a strong showing despite the fact the studio is projecting just $3 million for the four-day holiday weekend. Our expectations are a bit higher, anticipating a three-day performance closer to $5 million and a four-day at or above $6 million.
Outside the top ten is where we find Lionsgate's Kin, which is opening in 2,141 theaters this weekend and arrives on the heels of several films that seem to be catering to the same audience including The Darkest Minds, Alpha and last weekend's new release A.X.L.. That being said, compared to those releases this one isn't looking half-bad when you look at IMDb page view data over the two weeks leading up to release, but the 31 rating from critics on Metacritic isn't likely to help matters. While this is ahead of A.X.L.'s 29 rating, it's well behind Alpha's 63 and even behind the 39 for Darkest Minds. How much that will affect the film's performance is tough to say, but as it stands we're looking for a three-day weekend around $3-4 million and a $4-5 million four-day debut.
This weekend will also see the release of Lionsgate's latest release from their Pantelion label as Ya Veremos opens in 369 theaters and Focus is releasing The Little Stranger into 474 theaters.
Elsewhere, Disney and Pixar's Incredibles 2 is expanding back in to 2,890 theaters (+1,830) as it pushes toward $600 million. Once it hits that number it will become only the ninth domestic release ever to top $600 million at the domestic box office (not adjusted for inflation). Additionally, Sony's The Equalizer 2 should be able to reach $100 million domestically this weekend, joining Crazy Rich Asians as the 18th and 19th 2018 releases to reach that mark.
This weekend's three and four-day forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning.
- Crazy Rich Asians (3,865 theaters) - $25.0 M
- The Meg (3,761 theaters) - $12.0 M
- Mission: Impossible - Fallout (2,639 theaters) - $9.2 M
- Disney's Christopher Robin (2,925 theaters) - $7.3 M
- Operation Finale (1,818 theaters) - $7.2 M
- The Happytime Murders (3,256 theaters) - $6.5 M
- BlacKkKlansman (1,766 theaters) - $5.3 M
- Alpha (2,881 theaters) - $5.1 M
- Searching (1,207 theaters) - $5.0 M
- Mile 22 (2,950 theaters) - $5.0 M
- Crazy Rich Asians (3,865 theaters) - $30.0 M
- The Meg (3,761 theaters) - $15.4 M
- Mission: Impossible - Fallout (2,639 theaters) - $11.9 M
- Disney's Christopher Robin (2,925 theaters) - $9.4 M
- Operation Finale (1,818 theaters) - $9.0 M
- The Happytime Murders (3,256 theaters) - $8.2 M
- BlacKkKlansman (1,766 theaters) - $6.8 M
- Alpha (2,881 theaters) - $6.0 M
- Searching (1,207 theaters) - $5.9 M
- Mile 22 (2,950 theaters) - $5.8 M
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