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Is 'Crazy Rich Asians' Looking at a Crazy Rich Opening Weekend?

by Brad Brevet
 

 
August 14, 2018

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: WB's Crazy Rich Asians brought in an estimated $7.26 million on Friday to bring the film's three-day cume since opening on Wednesday to $ million. Current expectations are for a three-day around $22 million and a five-day opening topping $31 million, a great start for the $30 million production. The film received an "A" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.

STX's Mile 22 looks as if it will come up a bit short of expectations after taking in an estimated $5.26 million on Friday, en route to a three-day opening around $14-15 million. The film was designed to be a franchise starter, but with lackluster reviews and reports of a "B-" CinemaScore from opening day audiences this isn't a great start.

Sony's Alpha from Studio 8 brought in an estimated $3.36 million on Friday and should push to $9-10 million for the three-day. While critics have taken to the film and opening day audiences scored the film with a "B+" CinemaScore this is a bit of a slow start for the film, which is said to carry a $50 million budget.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Since debuting on Wednesday, WB's Crazy Rich Asians has brought in $8.77 million, which includes ~$3.67 million posted yesterday from 3,303 theaters. The film expands into 3,384 locations starting today and is currently expected to deliver around $25-28 million for the five-day. Opening day audiences gave the film an "A" CinemaScore.

Opening today after holding Thursday night previews, we begin with STX's Mile 22. The Peter Berg-directed film starring Mark Wahlberg brought in $1 million from previews in ~2,600 locations. The performance is $40k ahead of weekend comp American Made, which went on to debut with $16.8 million last September.

Additionally, Sony's release of Alpha took in $525,000 from Thursday night previews, which began at 5 PM in 2,303 locations. Heading into the weekend we were comparing the film to Fox's recent release of The Darkest Minds, which brought in $550k from previews beginning at 7 PM in 2,575 locations. So, while the studio is still projecting a $10M+ weekend we're still expecting a debut in the single digit millions.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: This weekend gets off to an early start with the Wednesday release of the much-anticipated romantic comedy Crazy Rich Asians, the first Asian-led, major Hollywood studio film to hit theaters since The Joy Luck Club. While Joy Luck Club didn't play in any more than 600 theaters during its run 25 years ago, Crazy Rich Asians will get its start in over 3,300 locations with plenty of buzz behind it. Later in the week, STX will release what they hope is a franchise-starter in Mile 22 featuring Mark Wahlberg re-teaming with director Peter Berg, while Sony's Studio 8 will release Alpha.

Beginning with Crazy Rich Asians, the adaptation of Kevin Kwan's novel of the same name has been making headlines for some time now. Originally published in 2013, the book has found a place on Amazon Charts for the past five weeks, currently ranking as the third most sold fiction title on the site, up two positions from the previous week. On top of that, the film has already generated a social media movement and IMDb page view data shows it outperforming the likes of last year's hit comedy Girls Trip as well as A Bad Moms Christmas over the two weeks leading up to release.

As for the weekend, Warner Bros. is anticipating a $29 million five-day opening, but given the hype, strong reviews and the data we're looking at, we're expecting a larger result. At this point, a $30 million five-day feels like the floor, while a five-day pushing toward $40 million doesn't feel at all out of the realm of possibility. The film already has a little money in its coffers thanks to sneaks held in early August where it is reported it brought in anywhere from $450-500k from 354 locations. At this time, a five-day approaching $35 million feels like a safe bet and we're ready for it to pop even higher.

Look for WB's The Meg to take another $20 million bite out of the box office this weekend, signaling a ~56% drop from its stellar $45.4 million debut last weekend. This should put the film's domestic gross right around $85 million after ten days in release.

STXfilms's Mile 22 should be looking at a third place finish for the weekend as Wahlberg and Berg team for the fourth straight film in a row, and with this one their hoping to start a whole new franchise. The R-rated action-thriller will debut in 3,520 locations and studio expectations are for a debut similar to the $16.8 million opening for Tom Cruise's American Made last September. A look at IMDb page view data supports such a comparison along with comps to films such as Den of Thieves ($15.2m opening), Death Wish ($13m opening) and American Assassin ($14.8m opening). Overall, a performance right around $15-17 million seems a good bet.

Paramount's Mission: Impossible - Fallout should land in fourth place, dropping around 37% for a $12.2 million three-day, pushing the film's cume near $184 million. Such a performance would help maintain Fallout's lead over Mission: Impossible II as it hopes to become the largest grossing film in the M:I franchise.

Rounding out the top five we're expecting a good sophomore session for Spike Lee's BlacKkKlansman, dropping around 31% for a second weekend right around $7.6 million. Should the film hold to that forecast it will be looking to top $23 million or so by the end of the weekend.

It isn't until the second half of the top ten that we find Sony's Alpha. Debuting under the Studio 8 banner, the Albert Hughes-directed adventure feature is set during the last Ice Age and is expected to open in ~2,700 theaters. Recent industry expectations pegged the film for a $7-8 million opening as it will debut not only in 3D, but also in select IMAX locations, but based on what we're looking at that could be a stretch. IMDb page view data shows the film hewing closer to the recent release of The Darkest Minds if not a bit behind. So, while the studio is anticipating a performance around $8-10 million we can't help but forecast a debut closer to $6 million for the weekend.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

  • Crazy Rich Asians (3,384 theaters) - $25.0 M (~$35M five-day)
  • The Meg (4,118 theaters) - $20.0 M
  • Mile 22 (3,520 theaters) - $16.0 M
  • Mission: Impossible - Fallout (3,482 theaters) - $12.2 M
  • BlacKkKlansman (1,788 theaters) - $7.6 M
  • Disney's Christopher Robin (3,602 theaters) - $7.3 M
  • Alpha (2,700 theaters) - $6.0 M
  • Slender Man (2,358 theaters) - $4.1 M
  • Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (2,266 theaters) - $3.5 M
  • Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (2,187 theaters) - $3.4 M

NOTE: Original forecasts were made without actual theater counts and have since been updated.

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