'Mission: Impossible' Looks to Retain #1 Position Over Disney's 'Christopher Robin'
by Brad Brevet
August 2, 2018
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Disney's Christopher Robin looks as if it will fall below our weekend forecast, which itself was on the lower end of studio expectations and below industry tracking. After bringing in an estimated $9.1 million on Friday the pic is now heading toward a three-day around $25+ million. As a result, it will indeed be Paramount's Mission: Impossible - Fallout repeating atop the weekend box office after it brought in an estimated $9.85 million on Friday and is looking at a three-day anywhere from $32-34 million. Christopher Robin received an "A" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.
Lionsgate's The Spy Who Dumped Me brought in an estimated $5 million on Friday and is now looking at a three day around $12 million. The film received a "B" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.
Fox's The Darkest Minds is struggling, and while not quite as bad as our forecast heading into the weekend, it's not looking pretty. The YA adaptation brought in an estimated $2.3 million on Friday and is now looking at a $6 million debut from 3,127 locations. Darkest Minds received a "B" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.
Dinesh D'Souza's documentary Death of a Nation brought in an estimated $950,000, which includes an undisclosed amount from preview showings, and is looking at an opening anywhere from $2-3 million. The film received and "A" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.
You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Disney's Christopher Robin delivered $1.5 million from Thursday night previews, which is just ahead of the $1.3 million A Wrinkle in Time brought in prior to its $33 million opening weekend.
Lionsgate's The Spy Who Dumped Me took in an estimated $950,000 during Thursday night previews. This is just a bit behind Game Night's $1 million in previews and well ahead of the $450k brought in by Hot Pursuit back in May 2015 prior to launching with $13.9 million over its opening weekend.
Fox's The Darkest Minds grossed $550,000 last night from ~2,575 locations. The preview showing compares favorably to Sony's The 5th Wave, which brought in $475k in previews prior to a $10.3 million opening in January of 2016.
Quality Flix's Death of Nation held preview screenings, but we haven't yet received results.
We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: With July coming to a close, the Summer 2018 movie season begins to wind down, yet Disney's Christopher Robin hopes to keep the summer season alive for just a bit longer. The new release from the Mouse House will battle Paramount's Mission: Impossible - Fallout for the weekend's number one slot while Lionsgate's The Spy Who Dumped Me looks for a spot in the top three and early signals suggest Fox's The Darkest Minds may need to scratch and claw for a spot in the top ten.
While we're expecting a close race, as of now we anticipate Mission: Impossible - Fallout will hang on for a second weekend atop the weekend box office, dropping around 47% for a $32 million sophomore session. In fact, this forecast feels slightly conservative considering the film has continued to outperform Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation throughout the week and that film dipped 48.7% in its second weekend when it faced off against Fantastic Four and STX's The Gift. While Fantastic Four was one of the biggest superhero flops of all-time, it, along with The Gift, provided far more competition for Rogue Nation than Fallout faces within its demographic among new releases this weekend. That said, should Fallout hold to our forecast it will top $120 million domestically by the end of the weekend. Internationally, the film debuts in France, Australia, Germany and Japan this week.
Disney's Christopher Robin will be in close competition with Fallout for that top spot as the film will open in just over 3,600 locations this weekend with the studio anticipating an opening in the high-$20-30 million range. Looking at IMDb page views over the two weeks leading up to release, Christopher Robin is outpacing both Pete's Dragon ($21.5m opening) and Peter Rabbit ($25m opening) while at the same time pacing behind A Wrinkle in Time ($33.1m opening). These numbers and the embargo on critic reviews as late as 1PM PST on the day before release has us hedging expectations, anticipating a debut right around $29 million. While we wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see it jump as high as $33+ million, a second place finish behind Fallout appears most likely at this point.
Internationally, Christopher Robin opens in just a few international markets this weekend, including Russia, Mexico, Philippines, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan and will expand further throughout the fall.
Look for Lionsgate's The Spy Who Dumped Me to land in third for the weekend. Starring Mila Kunis and Kate McKinnon, the R-rated action-comedy arrives in 3,111 theaters this weekend with the studio anticipating a debut in the low teens and that's exactly where we see it landing. The film is pacing just behind 2015's Hot Pursuit and this year's Game Night over the two weeks leading to release based on IMDb page view data. Similar releases of this size from Lionsgate tend to open right around $13 million, which we're expecting for this film this weekend.
Universal and Legendary's Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again should push past $90 million domestically this weekend with a three-day around $9 million. The film also recently topped $110 million internationally and will hit theaters in Brazil, Taiwan, India and China this weekend.
Rounding out the top five is Sony Animation's Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, which we're expecting to drop around 44% as it begins its fourth weekend in release for a $6.9 million three-day and a domestic gross topping $135 million.
Outside the top five we currently have Fox's The Darkest Minds, which is debuting in 3,127 locations and we're having a hard time figuring out how this one won't become one of the worst openings of all-time for a film debuting in over 3,000 theaters. Based on Alexandra Bracken's young adult novel of the same name, Fox has all but ignored this film after debuting the first trailer back in late March, and other than a handful of clips and featurettes, waited until mid-July to release a "What Happens Next?" trailer. The answer to that question would appear to be a single digit debut.
Outside the top ten we expect to find Quality Flix's release of Dinesh D'Souza's Death of a Nation. The politically-driven documentary has been destroyed by critics as it currently holds a Metacritic score of 1, but that shouldn't deter the film's target audience as industry expectations are currently looking for an opening around $2-3 million.
Lastly, A24's Eighth Grade will expand nationwide this weekend into 1,084 theaters where it could be looking at a $3-4 million weekend, pushing the film's domestic gross over $7 million as it enters its fourth week in release.
This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- Mission: Impossible - Fallout (4,395 theaters) - $32.0 M
- Disney's Christopher Robin (3,602 theaters) - $29.0 M
- The Spy Who Dumped Me (3,111 theaters) - $13.0 M
- Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (3,355 theaters) - $9.0 M
- Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (3,162 theaters) - $6.9 M
- The Equalizer 2 (2,725 theaters) - $6.4 M
- Teen Titans Go! To The Movies (3,219 theaters) - $6.0 M
- Ant-Man and the Wasp (2,233 theaters) - $5.1 M
- The Darkest Minds (3,127 theaters) - $5.0 M
- Incredibles 2 (1,802 theaters) - $4.6 M
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