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'Mission: Impossible - Fallout' Poised to Deliver the Franchise's Best Opening Weekend

by Brad Brevet
 

 
July 26, 2018

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Mission: Impossible - Fallout brought in an estimated $23 million for Friday (including $6 million from Thursday night previews). This is $3 million an improvement on the opening day for Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, which brought in $4 million from preview screenings and went on to open with $55.5 million. Fallout received an "A" CinemaScore from opening day audiences, the best CinemaScore grade in the franchise. Current expectation is for a three-day weekend in the range of $58-60 million.

WB's Teen Titans Go! To the Movies brought in an estimated $4.25 million on Friday, including $1 million from Thursday night previews, and is currently looking at a weekend around $11-12 million. The film received a "B+" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Exploding out of the gates, Paramount's Mission: Impossible - Fallout took in $6 million during Thursday previews in ~3,300 theaters. The result is $2 million ahead of the $4 million Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation brought in ahead of a $55.5 million opening and ahead of the $4.23 million in previews for Jason Bourne ahead of a $59.2 million opening in July 2016. All good signs as the film attempts to not only deliver the franchise's largest opening, but the largest opening for Tom Cruise as well.

Warner Bros.'s Teen Titans Go! To the Movies delivered just over $1 million from Thursday previews beginning at 4PM. This compares favorably to The Emoji Movie, which brought in $900k in previews prior to its $24.5 million opening weekend as well as Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, which brought in $650k from previews prior to a $23.8 million opening. It's also well ahead of the $375k in previews for Smurfs: The Lost Village, which opened with $13.2 million suggesting our weekend forecast of $17 million might be a little light.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: This weekend sees Tom Cruise return to theaters as Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible - Fallout. It's the sixth film in the now 22-year-old franchise, and yet another sequel added to the box office mix as this weekend will once again see eight sequels finish within the top ten. Meanwhile Warner Bros. debuts their animated feature Teen Titans Go! To the Movies, which will serve as one of three animated titles in the top ten, giving families plenty of options as folks look for some reprieve amid the heatwave scorching much of the country.

Debuting in a massive 4,386 theaters, Paramount's release of Mission: Impossible - Fallout will be the widest release of the six-film franchise (and seventh widest release of all-time), topping the 4,054 theaters Mission: Impossible III opened in back in 2006. Within those theaters, the film will be shown in 3D as well as 2D and IMAX theaters, the first time the franchise has ever been released in all three formats and it appears audiences are ready to eat it up.

Online ticket retailer Fandango.com reports Fallout is not only outpacing all previous Mission films at the same point in the sales cycle, but also Jason Bourne, which debuted with $59.2 million in 2016 and we're seeing similar results when looking at IMDb page view data.

Fallout is outpacing Jason Bourne when looking at IMDb page view data over the two weeks leading up to release. It's also pacing ahead of Fox's 2013 release of The Wolverine ($53.1m opening), Star Trek Beyond ($59.25m opening) and Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation ($55.5m opening).

While Paramount suggests they are looking for an opening in the $50 million range, the trends we're looking at clearly suggest a debut much higher than that, to the point we're expecting a debut topping Mission: Impossible II's franchise-best, $57.8 million opening back in 2000. Our weekend forecast is for a debut at or above $65 million, but we wouldn't be surprised to see it climb even higher, if not managing to near $75 million. Should the film top $65.5 million we'd be looking at the largest opening for a Paramount title since Transformers: Age of Extinction debuted with $100 million back in June 2014. On top of that, anything over the $64.8 million War of the Worlds opened with in 2005 would make for the largest opening ever for Tom Cruise*.

Internationally, Mission: Impossible - Fallout will open in 36 international markets, including the UK, Russia, Spain, South Korea, and all of Latin America and Asia with the exception of both Japan and China. The film will then release in 20 additional markets throughout the month of August.

We're looking for Universal and Legendary's Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again to land a second place finish, dipping around 48% or so for an $18 million second weekend, pushing the film's domestic cume just shy of $75 million after ten days in release.

WB's Teen Titans Go! To the Movies is debuting in 3,188 locations this weekend and is looking at a debut in the mid-to-high teens. Animated titles debuting on this scale for Warner Bros. tend to open around $17-18 million, which is exactly what we're anticipating for this title. There does appear to be some potential for some upside, however, as the pic is outperforming both Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie ($23.8m opening) and The LEGO Ninjago Movie ($20.4m opening) over the two weeks leading up to release based on IMDb page view data. At the same time, it is well behind The Emoji Movie and just ahead of Smurfs: The Lost Village, which is keeping our expectations in check.

Sony's The Equalizer 2 is looking at a fourth place finish following its surprise debut atop the weekend box office last week. This weekend's release of Fallout is likely to have a larger impact on the Denzel Washington-led actioner than on Mamma Mia! which is why we're anticipating an $16.5 million weekend and a domestic cume finishing right around $68 million by the end of the weekend.

Rounding out the top five, look for Sony's Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation to continue its solid run as it is currently outpacing Hotel Transylvania 2, though that lead could diminish over the coming weeks. This weekend we're anticipating a drop around 45% for a $13 million three-day and a domestic total topping $120 million as it begins its third week in release.

Outside the top five, Disney and Marvel's Ant-Man and the Wasp should bring in around $9 million this weekend, pushing its total near $184 million and leapfrogging over Captain America: The First Avenger, Ant-Man and Thor to become the 16th largest domestic release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

Outside the top ten, Lionsgate and Summit are expanding the release of Blindspotting from 14 theaters last weekend into 523 this weekend and A24 is expanding Bo Burnham's Eighth Grade into 158 locations (+125) this weekend before the film goes wide next week.

This weekend's limited releases include Music Box's The Captain debuting in one theater; Puzzle from Sony Classics opening in five locations; and Reliance's release of Saheb Biwi Aur Gangster 3, which will open in 41 theaters.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

  • Mission: Impossible - Fallout (4,386 theaters) - $65+ M
  • Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (3,514 theaters) - $18.0 M
  • Teen Titans Go! To The Movies (3,188 theaters) - $17.0 M
  • The Equalizer 2 (3,388 theaters) - $16.5 M
  • Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (4,005 theaters) - $13.1 M
  • Ant-Man and the Wasp (3,013 theaters) - $9.0 M
  • Incredibles 2 (2,616 theaters) - $7.7 M
  • Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2,685 theaters) - $6.7 M
  • Skyscraper (2,773 theaters) - $5.7 M
  • The First Purge (1,400 theaters) - $2.2 M

Not including his cameo appearance in Austin Powers in Goldmember.

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