No New Summer Blockbusters This Weekend as 'Adrift', 'Action Point' & 'Upgrade' Debut
by Brad Brevet
May 31, 2018
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: The weekend's new releases are struggling with STX's Adrift leading the way with an estimated $4.23 million on Friday, looking at a $10.5-11.5 million three-day opening. The performance is below the studio's expectations which were in the low-to-mid teens. The film received a "B" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.
BH Tilt's Upgrade is actually performing a bit better than expected, pulling in an estimated $1.67 million on Friday and looking at a three-day around $4-4.5 million from 1,457 locations. It's a solid start for the micro-budgeted feature, which carried the best reviews among the weekend's three new wide releases.
The worst of the lot is Paramount's Action Point, the $19 million Johnny Knoxville production brought in a meager $790k on Friday (including a limited number of midnight showings), heading toward a $2.25 million debut, well below even the modest $4-7 million three-day studio expectations. The film received a "C+" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.
Meanwhile, Disney and Lucasfilms's Solo: A Star Wars Story is fading fast, bringing in an estimated $8.15 million on Friday and while it will still top the weekend it looks as if it may fall short of $30 million.
You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: STX's Adrift delivered $725,000 from Thursday previews last night beginning at 7PM in ~2,260 locations. This falls in line with expectations when compared to the comps used in our weekend preview below as it outperformed all but The Shack, which brought in $850k from previews in 2,500 theaters.
Paramount's Action Point held a handful of screenings at midnight, but the studio reports those grosses won't be reported separately, but instead just rolled into Friday's gross. BH Tilt's Upgrade did not hold early preview screenings.
We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: The release of Solo: A Star Wars Story last weekend came on the heels of two previous blockbuster releases in Avengers: Infinity War and Deadpool 2 as the 2018 Summer movie season is well underway. This weekend, however, will offer something of a brief reprieve as three new films make their way to theaters, but the highest budget of the trio belongs to the $35 million production Adrift, which debuts alongside Action Point and the micro-budgeted BH Tilt feature Upgrade. None of the three will have a major impact on this weekend's box office, but this weekend does offer audiences a little breathing room before Ocean's 8 next weekend and Incredibles 2 in two weeks.
Following a less-than-expected debut over Memorial Day weekend, Disney and Lucasfilms's Solo: A Star Wars Story will hope to hold on better than its Star Wars predecessors and save a little face when it comes to its domestic performance. That being said, we aren't expecting much from this weekend as Solo played similarly to The Hangover Part II over its first five days in releaseóif you ignore the Hangover sequel's $31 million Thursday debutóbut even by day six was showing a much more dramatic decline. Hangover II dipped 63.5% in its second weekend and when looking at the last three Star Wars releases Force Awakens dropped just 39.8% in its second weekend, but Rogue One fell 58.7% and Last Jedi dipped 67.5%, the latter two suggesting Solo could be in for a bumpy weekend.
At this time we're looking at a drop around 64% for a second weekend hovering around $30 million for Solo. Come the end of the weekend the film's domestic cume should be right around $150 million domestically, though it might have to wait until the following Monday to top that mark.
Internationally, Solo reached $82.3 million as of yesterday and this weekend will debut in Croatia and Trinidad as it is already playing in the majority of markets with Japan serving as the last major market yet to open, where the film will debut on June 29.
Look for Deadpool 2 to finish in second place once again this weekend, dropping 48% or so for a $22.6 million three-day, pushing the film's domestic cume over $250 million. Internationally, the film is pushing toward $300 million and will debut in Japan this weekend.
Third place should go to STX's debut of the survival story Adrift starring Shailene Woodley. The film opens in 3,015 locations and studio expectations are for a debut in the mid-teens and our analysis puts the film right at the edge of those expectations. Looking at IMDb page view data for films such as Everything, Everything ($11.7m opening), The Mountain Between Us ($10.5m opening) and McFarland, USA ($11m opening) shows the film pacing just ahead of all three, suggesting to us an opening anywhere from $13-15 million. Our forecast is for a performance on the lower end of that range, but we wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see it deliver as much as $16 million as it has continued to show strong gains over the last couple of days, beginning to outpace The Shack, which opened with $16 million from 2,888 locations back in March 2017.
Disney and Marvel's Avengers: Infinity War should top $640 million domestically this weekend, dropping around 42% or so for a $10 million sixth weekend and a fourth place finish.
Rounding out the top five there's a possibility we could have a tight race between a pair of Paramount titles, but with holdover title Book Club adding 359 theaters after a strong Memorial Day weekend showing we're expecting it to hold off the studio's new release Action Point. Book Club, which is targeting an older, female demographic dipped just 25.8% last weekend and could be looking at a similar dip this weekend. Right now we're going with a conservative expectation and a 28% drop for a $7.26 million weekend and a domestic cume topping $47 million.
As for Action Point, the film is debuting in 2,032 theaters and studio expectations for the $19 million production is for an opening anywhere from $4-7 million. The comp title we've been keeping the closest eye on is 2017's CHiPs, which opened with $7.7 million. Action Point has been pacing a bit behind that comedy based on IMDb page view data, which pushes our expectations closer to $5-6 million for the Johnny Knoxville feature.
And we're currently expecting BH Tilt's Upgrade to land in ninth position. The BH Tilt title stars Logan Marshall-Green and will be opening in 1,457 theaters with tracking as of last week suggesting a debut around $4-6 million, but we've had a hard time finding evidence this one is going to climb that high. Looking at IMDb page view data compared to past BH Tilt titles, Upgrade is pacing behind The Belko Experiment ($4.1m opening) and very similarly to Birth of the Dragon ($2.7m opening). In fact, it's also pacing very closely to A24's Free Fire, which crashed and burned when it opened in April 2017 with just $994k from 1,070 theaters. All told, we're going with a $2.5 million forecast for the weekend.
In limited release, IFC will open A Kid Like Jake in two theaters; The Orchard will release American Animals; and FilmRise will debut Breath.
This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- Solo: A Star Wars Story (4,381 theaters) - $30.0 M
- Deadpool 2 (4,161 theaters) - $22.6 M
- Adrift (3,015 theaters) - $13.0 M
- Avengers: Infinity War (3,570 theaters) - $11.2 M
- Book Club (3,169 theaters) - $7.3 M
- Action Point (2,032 theaters) - $5.5 M
- Life of the Party (2,511 theaters) - $2.8 M
- Breaking In (1,682 theaters) - $2.6 M
- Upgrade (1,457 theaters) - $2.5 M
- Overboard (1,228 theaters) - $1.8 M
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