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'A Quiet Place' Hopes to Hold off Newcomers and Return to Weekend #1

by Brad Brevet
 

 
April 19, 2018

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: With an estimated $7.9 million on Friday, Fox's Super Troopers 2 is leading the weekend's new releases and heading toward an anticipated $15-17 million, well ahead of expectations. The film received a "B+" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.

Nipping at Super Troopers's heels on Friday is Amy Schumer's I Feel Pretty, which brought in an estimated $6.25 million on Friday and is expected to deliver anywhere from $17-18+ million for the three-day weekend. The film received an overall "B+" CinemaScore, though among females under 18 it received an "A+", and an "A" from females under 25.

Further down the list is Lionsgate's Traffik, which debuted with an estimated $1.4 million on Friday and is expected to bring in $3.5-4 million for the three-day weekend. The film received a "B" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.

Additionally, Great India Films' release of Bharat Ane Nenu brought in an estimated $1.55 million from just 305 theaters.

Meanwhile, A Quiet Place brought in an estimated $6.4 million on Friday and is looking at a three-day anywhere from $19-20 million in what might be a tight race for #1 at the box office depending on how things shake out.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Impressively, Fox Searchlight's Super Troopers 2 delivered $1.35 million from Thursday previews, which included a double bill with the first film that began at 4:20 PM in ~1,850 locations. This makes comparisons a little more difficult, but Fox is comping the $1.5 million preview performance for Blockers a couple weeks ago, which hints at bigger things ahead than originally anticipated.

STX's I Feel Pretty brought in $1 million from preshows in ~2,600 theaters. For comparison, Snatched brought in $650k from previews ahead of a $19.5 million debut.

Finally, Lionsgate's Traffik brought in $225,000 from preview showings, well ahead of the $155k for The Perfect Match as well as the $164k for Addicted. Lionsgate points to the $200k in preview grosses Meet the Blacks brought in back in April 2016 ahead of a $4 million debut as a comp.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: Audiences may already be looking ahead to Avengers: Infinity War, but this weekend could feature an interesting battle among the top three. While we're expecting A Quiet Place to return to the weekend's #1 spot, the race could be a little closer should Rampage hold on better than expected or if Amy Schumer's new comedy I Feel Pretty outperforms expectations. The weekend also sees the release of Fox Searchlight's Super Troopers 2 and Lionsgate's release of Traffik into a moderate number of locations.

Beginning with A Quiet Place, the horror/thriller has already brought in nearly $110 million and is poised to top recent horror hits Split and The Conjuring. With Paramount adding another 219 locations for a total of 3,808 theaters, we're anticipating a 36% drop and a three-day right around $21 million. Come the end of the weekend the film should top $130 million domestically.

Look for Dwayne Johnson's Rampage to fall to second in its sophomore frame, dropping 52% or so for ~$17 million this weekend, pushing the film's domestic cume over $62 million after ten days in release.

Next we come to STX's release of Amy Schumer's I Feel Pretty, which has been met with something of a mixed response online and tracking has the film pacing behind Schumer's past releases Snatched and Trainwreck, which debuted with $19.5 million and $30 million respectively.

Tracking services peg the film for a debut around $13-15 million, which may seem low in comparison to Schumer's last two releases, but we're also not talking about a direct, apples-to-apples comp. The PG-13 rating for I Feel Pretty immediately makes it a tougher comp to both Snatched and Trainwreck, not to mention Snatched was able to use the Mother's Day holiday to its benefit. Comparing to films such as Rough Night and How to Be Single is also difficult due to the MPAA rating and a film such as The Intern, while PG-13, doesn't seem to fall into the same comedic bucket.

One film that does seem to be somewhat related is 2014's The Other Woman, which debuted in with $24.7 million from 3,205 theaters. Looking at IMDb page view data, however, shows I Feel Pretty pacing well behind The Other Woman. It is, however, pacing ahead of both The Intern and How to Be Single over the course of the two weeks leading up to release. All told, we're currently seeing a rather wide window when it comes to just how well this film will perform, ranging from $12-19 million. At this time, we're anticipating a debut right around $15 million, though it appears this is one that could really go either way and will be one to keep an eye on as the weekend unfolds.

Look for Universal and Blumhouse's Truth or Dare to finish in fourth position. After a solid, $18.6 million debut last weekend we're anticipating a second weekend drop right around 60% for a sophomore performance around $7.5 million. For comparison, Ouija debuted with $19.8 million and dipped 46% in its second weekend and Sinister opened with $18 million and dropped 51% in its second frame.

Unless Truth or Dare dips harder than expected, WB's Ready Player One should land itself in fifth place with $7 million, pushing the film's domestic cume over $125 million after 25 days in release.

Just outside the top five we have Fox Searchlight's Super Troopers 2. Parent company Fox will handle the comedy sequel's distribution into 2,038 locations with studio expectations anticipating a debut around $5-6 million. Arriving 16 years after the first film, which debuted in 2002 with $6.2 million, this is a tough film to comp, at least if you're looking for anything that opened in the past five to six years or so. One film that comes to mind is Fox's Let's Be Cops, which delivered a stellar $26.2 million over the course of its first five days after opening on a Wednesday. Super Troopers 2 doesn't have that same level of broad appeal, but the Broken Lizard troupe and the original film have a strong following that should help this film reach $6 million if not possibly $7 million in its first three days.

Lionsgate's Codeblack Films will debut Traffik starring Paula Patton and Omar Epps into 1,046 locations with studio expectations currently anticipating a $3-4 million debut. Previous Codeblack releases include The Perfect Match ($4.3m opening) and Addicted ($7.5m opening) and looking at IMDb page view performance comparisons we see Traffik pacing just ahead of The Perfect Match over the course of the two weeks leading up to release, though interest before that is clearly in favor of The Perfect Match. Meanwhile, Traffik is pacing well behind Addicted, which puts our expectation right around $3.5 million for the three-day.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

  • A Quiet Place (3,808 theaters) - $21.1 M
  • Rampage (4,115 theaters) - $17.2 M
  • I Feel Pretty (3,440 theaters) - $15.0 M
  • Truth or Dare (3,068 theaters) - $7.5 M
  • Ready Player One (3,208 theaters) - $7.1 M
  • Blockers (3,134 theaters) - $6.5 M
  • Super Troopers 2 (2,038 theaters) - $6.0 M
  • Black Panther (1,930 theaters) - $3.8 M
  • Isle Of Dogs (1,947 theaters) - $3.6 M
  • Traffik (1,046 theaters) - $3.5 M

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