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'Black Panther' Preps for Third Weekend at #1 as 'Red Sparrow' & 'Death Wish' Debut

by Brad Brevet
 

 
March 1, 2018

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Disney and Marvel's Black Panther continues to lead the charge, pulling in an estimated $16.3 million on Friday with early estimates looking at a $63+ million weekend, which means that $500 million mark by the end of the weekend is going to be close.

Leading the weekend's new wide releases is Fox's Red Sparrow pulling in an estimated $6 million, heading toward a $17+ million weekend. The film received a "B" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.

MGM's Death Wish brought in an estimated $4.27 million on Friday and is expected to finish with around $11-12 million for the weekend. The film received a "B+" CinemaScore.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Fox's Red Sparrow brought in $1.2 million from Thursday night previews last night. While preview screenings don't necessarily foreshadow a film's overall weekend performance, this could be an early indication of an opening that falls below expectation as it is shy of both the $1.8 million Ghost in the Shell brought in before opening with $18.7 million and the $1.52 million for Atomic Blonde ahead of its $18.3 million debut.

MGM's Death Wish kicked off its opening weekend with $650,000 from Thursday 7 PM previews from ~2,250 screens. Again using comparisons from our preview below, this is slightly behind the $775k for The Foreigner, the $915k for American Assassin and the $870k for John Wick.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: With nearly $430 million in the bank domestically as of Wednesday (Feb 28), the big question for Black Panther this weekend is not whether it will repeat at #1 for a third straight week (it will), but whether it can hold on well enough to reach $500 million domestically. Otherwise, while Black Panther continues to carve out its own place in box office history, a pair of new wide releases hope to make their own impact this weekend in Fox's Red Sparrow and MGM's Death Wish remake from Eli Roth, starring Bruce Willis.

At the top once again, Disney and Marvel's Black Panther will reign once again as box office king, adding another 64 theaters and looking to drop around 42%, bringing in ~$65 million. This will be Black Panther's third straight weekend atop the box office, which will make it only the third film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe to accomplish that feat in its first three weekends, the others being Captain America: The Winter Soldier and The Avengers.

Should the film live up to Mojo's expectations, the performance would also push the film's domestic total over $500 million, which means it would become the third fastest film to top $500 million domestically, coming up just shy of Star Wars: The Last Jedi by one day.

Internationally, Black Panther is up to $334.6 million overseas and adds one major new market this weekend in Japan where both Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Thor: Ragnarok recently brought in a little over $10 million and Doctor Strange finished with over $16 million, while Spider-Man: Homecoming grossed over $25 million last year. The film opens in its final market, China, next weekend.

Looking at a second place finish is Fox's Red Sparrow, which re-teams The Hunger Games star Jennifer Lawrence and director Francis Lawrence in an R-rated adaptation of the first book in Jason Matthews' trilogy of novels. Debuting in 3,056 theaters, Fox is anticipating a performance in the mid-to-high teens, and our analysis suggests an opening more on the higher end, if not possibly topping $20 million.

While reviews have been mediocre (currently scoring a 53 on Metacritic), IMDb page view data shows the film performing well alongside films such as Ghost in the Shell ($18.7m opening) and Atomic Blonde ($18.29m opening). In addition, Fox releases similar in genre and theatrical reach have opened, on average, just a bit over $18 million. All things considered, our current range has the film opening anywhere from $18-22 million.

Red Sparrow will also debut in 23 markets internationally this weekend including Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Colombia and Denmark.

Third place is where we expect to find the weekend's other new wide release, the remake of Charles Bronson's 1974 classic, Death Wish from director Eli Roth and screenwriter Joe Carnahan. Debuting in 2,847 locations the studio is expecting the Bruce Willis starrer to debut in the mid-teens, which is in the neighborhood of what our analysis is showing. Using comps such as The Foreigner, American Assassin and John Wick we're currently looking at a $13-15 million opening for the vigilante thriller with upside potential.

Last weekend's new release and weekend box office runner-up, the R-rated comedy Game Night from WB and New Line, is looking at a drop around 46% or so. This would put the film's second weekend box office a little over $9 million and we wouldn't be too surprised if it held on a little better, pushing its domestic cume over $30 million after ten days in release.

Rounding out the top five is Sony's Peter Rabbit, which continues to be the primary family title in theaters right now and the benefit was seen last weekend as it dropped a best-in-the-top-ten 27%. This weekend we're expecting the film to top $80 million domestically with a three-day performance around $8.4 million.

Outside the top five, keep an eye on Sony's Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle as it continues to push toward $400 million domestically; Universal's Fifty Shades Freed is inching toward $100 million; and Fox's The Greatest Showman should push close to $165 million by Sunday.

In limited release this weekend, A24 is releasing The Vanishing of Sidney Hall into ten locations and Sony Classics will debut Foxtrot in four theaters.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

  • Black Panther (4,084 theaters) - $64.8 M
  • Red Sparrow (3,056 theaters) - $19.3 M
  • Death Wish (2,847 theaters) - $15.0 M
  • Game Night (3,502 theaters) - $9.2 M
  • Peter Rabbit (3,607 theaters) - $8.4 M
  • Annihilation (2,112 theaters) - $5.9 M
  • Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (2,313 theaters) - $4.2 M
  • Fifty Shades Freed (2,609 theaters) - $3.3 M
  • The Greatest Showman (1,407 theaters) - $2.4 M
  • The 15:17 to Paris (1,803 theaters) - $1.8 M

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