'Black Panther' Delivers Fifth Largest Opening of All-Time, Heading Toward $235M+ 4-Day Debut
by Brad Brevet
February 19, 2018
MONDAY AM UPDATE: Disney has revised their three and four-day estimates for Black Panther and as expected the grosses continue to rise with the film now delivering an estimated $201.7 million over the three-day and is expected to surpass $235 million for the four-day weekend. This makes Black Panther only the fifth movie to debut with over $200 million over its opening weekend and the third highest four-day gross in history, passing Jurassic World's $234.1 million four-day gross.
The film will most likely break even more records once actuals are in, perhaps including the largest Sunday gross as the current Sunday estimate is currently less than $500k shy of Star Wars: The Force Awakens for the top spot. The film's current estimate of $33.2 million for Monday is already the second largest Monday of all-time, again trailing Force Awakens' $40.1 million Monday from back in December 2015.
It's also worth noting after just four days in release Black Panther is already the 25th highest grossing comic book adaptation of all-time, 12th highest grossing film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and 17th highest grossing Marvel comic adaptation of all-time. This is all before considering it decimated the previous February opening weekend record and President's Day opening record.
We'll have weekend actuals for you on Tuesday afternoon, for now you can check out three-day estimates here and four-day weekend estimates here.
WEEKEND RECAP: Dominating the weekend and delivering one of the largest opening weekends of all-time, Disney and Marvel's Black Panther topped the President's Day weekend box office, outperforming its nearest competitor by nearly $185 million based on estimates. As a result, fellow new wide releases were left in the dust with both Lionsgate's Early Man and PureFlix's Samson struggling in the low single digits. The weekend did, however, have other notable performances such as Sony's Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which became the studio's second highest grossing domestic release of all-time, and Fox's The Greatest Showman, which has now topped $150 million at the domestic box office.
Atop the weekend box office with an estimated $192 million for the three-day weekend, Black Panther delivered the fifth largest three-day domestic opening in history and is currently expected to finish around $218 million for the four-day holiday weekend. The performance is also the largest February opening of all-time, the largest President's Day weekend opening of all-time and gives Disney eight of the top ten domestic openings of all-time. Within the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Black Panther is the eighteenth release in the franchise and the ninth to open with over $100 million. It's also the second largest opening in the MCU, behind only The Avengers ($207.4m) and topping the $191 million debut for Avengers: Age of Ultron.
From an audience standpoint, Black Panther received an "A+" CinemaScore and played to an audience that was 55% male vs. 45% female, of which 61% were over the age of 25.
Internationally, Black Panther brought in an estimated $169 million from 48 markets for a global, three-day debut of $361 million, the fifteenth largest global opening weekend of all-time. The film managed this feat despite not debuting in China (March 9), Japan (March 1) or Russia, where the film will open next weekend along with Vietnam, Trinidad, Peru and Venezuela. Overall, South Korea leads all markets where the film brought in an estimated $25.3 million followed by the UK ($24.8m), Mexico ($9.6m), Brazil ($9.4m) and Australia ($9.2m).
Sony's Peter Rabbit finished second with an estimated $17.25 million for the three-day, which is expected to bloom to $22+ million for the four-day holiday weekend. The film's domestic cume currently stands at $48 million after ten days in release.
In third is last weekend's #1 pic, Universal's Fifty Shades Freed, which dipped an expected 56%, finishing with an estimated $16.9 million for the three-day and expected to finish around $19 million for the holiday. The film also added another $47.7 million internationally this weekend, pushing its overseas cume over $190 million for a worldwide total that now stands at $268.9 million.
Sony's Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle lands in fourth position with an estimated $7.9 million for the three-day and is expected to climb over $10 million for the four-day weekend. The film's domestic cume now stands at over $377.6 million making it Sony's second highest grossing domestic release of all-time, surpassing Spider-Man 2 and now opening the question as to whether it can top Spider-Man's $403.7 million to take over the top spot.
Jumanji also added an estimated $4.8 million internationally this weekend, bringing the film's overseas cume to $527 million for a worldwide total to $904.6 million, which makes the film the studio's second highest worldwide release of all-time, behind only Skyfall's $1.1 billion total. Jumanji will open in Japan on April 6.
Rounding out the top five is Warner Bros.'s release of Clint Eastwood's The 15:17 to Paris, which dropped 39% for an estimated $7.7 million over the three-day and is expected to finish around $9 million for the four-day with a domestic cume approaching $27 million after eleven days in release. The film also added another $2.8 million internationally this weekend from 27 markets, pushing the international running cume to $10.7 million.
Just outside the top five for the first time since opening in late December we find Fox's The Greatest Showman with an estimated $5.1 million, dropping just 21% for a cume that now stands at $154 million. The film is expected to deliver $6.3 million for the four-day weekend.
In seventh position we come to the second of the weekend's new wide releases, Lionsgate's release of Aardman's Early Man, which brought in an estimated $3.15 million for the three-day and is expected to finish around around $4.2 million for the four-day weekend. This puts the film below the mid-single digit pre-weekend expectations, and short of Shaun the Sheep's $4 million debut back in August 2015. The film received a "B" CinemaScore from opening day audiences and played to an audience that was 51% male and 62% over the age of 25.
Rounding out the top ten we find the weekend's third and final new wide release of the weekend, PureFlix's Samson, which fell well short of Mojo's expectations, delivering just $1.97 million for the three-day and is expected to finish around $2.3 million for the four-day. Indicators heading into the weekend suggested Samson might be able to challenge some of the studio's top openers, but instead is settling below even Same Kind of Different as Me, which delivered a $2.5 million three-day back in October 2017, a performance that was also short of expectations.
The weekend's limited releases include WB's Detective Chinatown 2 with an estimated $677k from 115 theaters ($5,887 PTA); Cohen Media's Double Lover brought in $69,176 from 48 locations ($1,441 PTA); Roadside's The Party debuted with an estimated $36,334 from three theaters ($12,111 PTA); Sony Classics' release of the Oscar nominated Loveless brought in $30,950 from three theaters ($10,317 PTA); Bleecker's Nostalgia also opened in three locations, pulling in an estimated $20,667 ($6,889 PTA); and FilmRise's The Boy Downstairs brought in an estimated $6,000 from one location.
One last limited release was Lionsgate's release of Monster Hunt 2, which brought in an estimated $335,000 from 69 theaters. The big news surrounding this follow-up to 2015's original, which delivered over $385 million worldwide, is the sequel's debut in China where it reportedly set a single day record with over $85 million on its opening day, ultimately bringing in an estimated ~$190 million for the weekend. We'll have more on that front on Tuesday.
Overall, the three-day weekend saw the top twelve nearly double the same weekend last year, delivering a combined $260.4 million and if some rival estimates hold true, look for Black Panther's three-day cume to climb once actuals arrive, pushing that combined total even higher.
Next weekend sees the release of Paramount's Annihilation into ~2,000 locations; Orion will open Every Day into ~1,650 theaters and WB has the widest release of the weekend in Game Night, which is targeting 3,300+ theaters.
You can check out all of this weekend's three-day estimates right here and we'll be publishing four-day estimates on Monday morning and full weekend actuals on Tuesday afternoon.
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