Competition Will be Stiff for New Releases With 'Jumanji' Set to Remain #1
by Brad Brevet
January 18, 2018
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: The weekend's two new releases are side-by-side atop the Friday's estimates with both STX's Den of Thieves and WB's 12 Strong delivering an estimated $5.66 million. In what is sure to be a very close race, both films will likely finish the weekend around $14.5-15.5 million.
Sony's Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is still expected to top the weekend after bringing in an estimated $4.8 million on Friday, heading toward a three-day around $20 million.
You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: STX's Den of Thieves delivered a strong $950,000 from Thursday night previews. It's a strong start for the film compared to some of the titles we mentioned in our weekend preview below beginning with our main comp, Triple 9, which delivered a ere $335k from preview showings before its $6.1 million debut. Additional comps include the $410k for Sleepless as well as the $700k for The Commuter last weekend ahead of a $13.7 million opening and the $915k for American Assassin, which opened with $14.8 million last September.
Warner Bros.' release of 12 Strong brought in $900,000 from Thursday previews in ~2,700 locations. Using the films we used as comparisons in our weekend preview below, this is better than the $560k Patriots Day brought in, same goes for the $575k for In the Heart of the Sea and even better than the $750k for Hacksaw Ridge, which is to say if the preview grosses are any indicator 12 Strong is on its way to an opening in the high teens.
We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: This weekend sees Warner Bros.'s 12 Strong and STX's R-rated heist thriller Den of Thieves hitting theaters, both of which are targeting male audiences, which means they'll also have to contend with the NFL conference championship games this Sunday. Additionally, a couple of notable expansions are taking place this weekend along with Roadside's moderate release of Forever My Girl. That being said, all appear as if they'll be settling in behind last weekend's #1 and #2 films, as Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Post are expected to hold on to those top two spots.
Jumanji topped last weekend's box office after dropping just 24.5%, and this weekend it should continue to hold on rather well. While we're currently anticipating a drop around 32% and a fifth weekend around $19 million, don't be surprised if it hangs on a little better than that. The film should top $315 million domestically by end of day Sunday, moving ahead of Thor: Ragnarok and becoming the seventh highest grossing release of 2017 with plenty more to come.
Steven Spielberg's The Post should deliver a second place finish for a second weekend in a row. The film expanded nationwide last weekend and performed quite well and we're expecting a drop around 28% this weekend for a $14 million weekend, pushing the film's domestic cume right around $47 million.
Nipping at The Post's heels is where we find WB's post-9/11 Afghanistan war drama, 12 Strong, the first of the weekend's new releases. Studio expectations are right around $15 million, which would actually place it in second place based on our current forecast, but our analysis anticipates a weekend a little lower, ranging from $10-14 million, with an outside chance it reaches the high teens. Contributing to our analysis is a look at IMDb page view data which shows the best comparisons to be Patriots Day ($11.6m wide opening), In the Heart of the Sea ($11m opening) and Hacksaw Ridge ($15.2m opening), which push our expectations down a little, hovering closer to $13 million.
Fox's The Greatest Showman is expected to remain in the top five for the fifth straight week in a row. In fact, it's expected to finish in fourth position for the fifth straight weekend in a row as we anticipate a drop approaching 20%. Surprisingly enough, this would be the film's largest weekend-to-weekend drop yet and deliver a three-day around $10 million pushing the film's domestic cume over $112 million.
Rounding out the top five is The Commuter, which delivered an opening above expectation last weekend and is one more reason both of this weekend's new releases could find themselves on the lower end of expectations as all are competing for the same eyeballs. Right now we're anticipating a second weekend drop around 53% for The Commuter and a $6.4 million weekend, pushing the film's domestic cume over $25 million after ten days in release.
Just outside the top five we have Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which we anticipate will deliver a weekend just over $6 million, pushing the film's domestic cume over $600 million. As such it will become only the sixth film to ever cross that mark.
It isn't until the eighth slot that we find the weekend's second new wide release in STX's Den of Thieves, for which the studio is expecting an opening in the high single digits from 2,432 locations. Looking into IMDb page view performance compared to films such as End of Watch ($13.1m opening), Sleepless ($8.3m opening) and Broken City ($8.3m opening) shows Den of Thieves outperforming all three at the same point in the release cycle. However, Thieves is pacing closest to (if not a little behind) Triple 9, another R-rated heist film which opened with just $6.1 million in February 2016. It's this latter film we're putting most of our focus on, pushing our expectations toward the lower range, which would be a $5-8 million debut with out forecast settling right around $6 million.
Elsewhere, look for Roadside Attractions's release of Forever My Girl into 1,032 locations attempt to play counter to the weekend's other new releases. Based on the Heidi McLaughlin novel, the film has every appearance of a Nicholas Sparks adaptation and it's getting reviews like one too with a current score of 40 on Metacritic. Given the size of the release a debut around $2-3 million seems reasonable enough as we're not expecting it to crack the top ten.
There are also some notable expansions this weekend including Sony Classics's Call Me by Your Name and Focus's Phantom Thread. Call Me By Your Name is expanding into 815 locations, which would lead us to expect a possible weekend around $2.5 million or as much as $4 million if it really catches fire. Phanton Thread will be adding 835 locations for a total of 897 and we're anticipating something a little closer to $2.5-3 million for this one. Should they match those forecasts it would have them hovering just outside the weekend top ten.
Additionally, Neon's I, Tonya is expanding even further this weekend, finally meeting Mojo's 600+ theater threshold for a wide release as it will play in nearly 800 theaters this week.
This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (3,704 theaters) - $19.0 M
- The Post (2,851 theaters) - $14.0 M
- 12 Strong (3,002 theaters) - $13.0 M
- The Greatest Showman (2,823 theaters) - $10.0 M
- The Commuter (3,025 theaters) - $6.4 M
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2,456 theaters) - $6.2 M
- Paddington 2 (3,702 theaters) - $6.1 M
- Den of Thieves (2,432 theaters) - $6.0 M
- Insidious: The Last Key (2,546 theaters) - $6.0 M
- Proud Mary (2,125 theaters) - $5.6 M
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