News

'Jumanji' Seeks to Hold Off Four New Wide Releases Over MLK Weekend

by Brad Brevet
 

 
January 11, 2018

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: With an estimated $6.1 million, Sony's Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle topped Friday's box office and is looking at a second weekend in a row at #1. Expectations are for a three-day around $23-24 million and a four-day weekend right around $29 million as the film's cume rises to $285 million.

Fox's release of Steven Spielberg's The Post brought in an estimated $5.9 million on Friday, heading toward a $17-18 million three-day and a four-day weekend around $21 million. The film received an "A" CinemaScore.

Lionsgate's The Commuter delivered an estimated $4.56 million on Friday and is expected to gross $12+ million for the three-day and $14-15 million for the four-day weekend. The film received an "B" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.

Screen Gems' release of Proud Mary brought in an estimated $3.17 million on Friday and is expected to deliver $9-10 million for the three-day and $11-12 million for the four-day weekend. The film received an "B+" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.

WB's release of Paddington 2 is falling quite a bit short of expectations, bringing in an estimated $2.4 million on Friday and heading toward a three-day around $10 million or so and a four-day around $13 million.

Finally, one more film to keep an eye on is Fox's The Greatest Showman, which brought in $3 million on Friday and is looking at a stellar, 18% hold for the three-day around $11+ million and a $13.5 million four-day weekend. The film is looking to finish the four-day just shy of $100 million.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Steven Spielberg's The Post held Thursday previews last night beginning at 7PM in 2,325 locations and brought in $775,000. This compares favorably to films such as Bridge of Spies which brought in $500k from Thursday previews before its $15.3 million opening as well as Lincoln, which brought in $701k prior to its $16.3 million opening.

Not too far behind, Lionsgate's release of The Commuter grossed $700,000 from 2,000+ locations last night. This isn't too far behind Non-Stop's $720k preview showing prior to a $28.8 million debut and it's ahead of Run All Night, which brought in $455k from Thursday previews ahead of an $11 million opening.

Finally, Warner Bros. reports Paddington 2 brought in $325,000 from Thursday night previews beginning at 5PM. The first film, which debuted with $18.9 million, brought in $175k from preview showings.

Screen Gems' Proud Mary did not hold Thursday previews.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: With Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday this marks the third weekend out of the last four to feature a long weekend at the box office, and with it comes three new wide releases along with the nationwide expansion of Steven Spielberg's The Post. New releases include WB's pick-up of Paddington 2 from the Weinstein Co., Screen Gems' Proud Mary starring Taraji P. Henson and Lionsgate's release of The Commuter re-teaming Liam Neeson with director Jaume Collet-Serra for the fourth time. Yet, despite four films going wide this weekend all expectation is that Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will retain the top spot for the second weekend in a row as it pushes toward $290 million domestically by end of day Monday and debuts in China this weekend.

After taking the runner-up position for two straight weeks, Sony's Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle dropped just 25.6% last weekend to secure the top spot in its third weekend in release. This weekend it looks to do the same, especially as it adds IMAX locations this weekend. We're currently anticipating a relatively similar dip for a three-day right around $28 million and a four-day weekend around $33-34 million, pushing the film's domestic cume over $285 million if not over $290 million.

In second place look for Steven Spielberg's The Post, which delivered a chart-topping $47,167 per theater average from 36 theaters last weekend and expands into 2,820 locations this weekend. Fox anticipates a weekend around $18 million, which is on the lower end of our expectations. A look at IMDb page view data for films such as Bridge of Spies ($15.3m opening), Unbroken ($30.6m opening), Sully ($35m opening) and Lincoln ($21m opening) finds The Post either outperforming or hanging with all of those titles. For this reason we're anticipating a three-day around $20 million, pushing toward a $24 million four-day.

Third place for the four-day should go to WB's pickup of Paddington 2 from The Weinstein Co., which was looking to offload the pic before filing for bankruptcy protection. WB won the bidding war over the family comedy in mid-November and are anticipating a three-day opening in the range of $15-17 million, which looks about right by our estimates. Ehen comparing it to the original, which opened over the same weekend in 2015 with $18.9 million, we're expecting a $16 million three-day, growing to $20 million or so for the four-day weekend.

Jockeying for position in the same vicinity as Paddington 2 will be Screen Gems' release of Proud Mary, an R-rated genre feature starring Taraji P. Henson. The studio is anticipating a low to mid-teens four-day opening, but we're seeing signs suggesting a stronger performance. IMDb data shows Proud Mary out performing both When the Bough Breaks ($14.2m opening) and Kidnap ($10m opening) heading into release and pacing a bit behind The Call, which opened with $17.1 million back in March 2013. That said, we're anticipating a three-day opening around $16 million and a four-day reaching as high as $19 million with a slight chance it pops a bit higher.

Rounding out the top five, Disney and Lucasfilm's Star Wars: The Last Jedi looks as if it will finish the four-day holiday weekend just a bit shy of $600 million domestically. This is the first weekend Disney's push to ensure distributors keep Last Jedi on their screens for four weeks comes to an end as the theater count dips from 4,232 to 3,090 locations. Considering how similar this theater drop, and Last Jedi's performance has been when compared to Rogue One over weekend's three and four, an MLK weekend performance similar to Rogue's 39% dip last year, if not a bit steeper, seems likely. We currently anticipate a three-day around $13 million and a four-day weekend around $16.5 million.

Settling outside the top five is Lionsgate's The Commuter, which finds Liam Neeson back with director Jaume Collet-Serra for a fourth time. The duo's last three outings were 2015's Run All Night ($11m opening), 2014's Non-Stop ($28.8m opening) and 2011's Unknown ($21.8m opening). Turning once again to IMDb page view data, while the film's recent performance hues closely to the aforementioned releases its lead-up to opening weekend shows little awareness. In fact, the film is trending much closer to Arnold Schwarzenegger's 2013 release The Last Stand, which debuted with just $6.2 million over the MLK weekend three-day and $7.2 million for the four-day. While we aren't expecting The Commuter to perform quite that low we also can't go any higher than $10 million for the three-day at this point, finishing around $12 million for the four-day weekend. There is a chance for it to play as high as $15 million for the holiday frame but right now we're just not seeing it.

Outside the top ten keep your eye on Neon's I, Tonya, which expands to 517 locations (+261) and should manage around $2.5 million or so for the three-day. Additionally, as a result of its four Golden Globes this past weekend, Fox Searchlight is bringing Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri back into wide release, adding 712 theaters for a total of 1,022 locations.

Also this weekend Lionsgate will open Pantelion's Condorito into 153 locations and Focus will expand the release of Paul Thomas Anderson's Phantom Thread into 62 locations (+56).

This weekend's three and four-day forecasts are directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

THREE-DAY FORECAST

  • Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (3,849 theaters) - $28.3 M
  • The Post (2,819 theaters) - $20.0 M
  • Proud Mary (2,200 theaters*) - $16.2 M
  • Paddington 2 (3,702 theaters) - $16.0 M
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (3,090 theaters) - $13.5 M
  • The Commuter (2,892 theaters) - $10.0 M
  • Insidious: The Last Key (3,150 theaters) - $11.8 M
  • The Greatest Showman (2,938 theaters) - $9.9 M
  • Pitch Perfect 3 (2,507 theaters) - $6.0 M
  • Darkest Hour (1,692 theaters) - $5.1 M

FOUR-DAY FORECAST

  • Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (3,849 theaters) - $33.7 M
  • The Post (2,819 theaters) - $24.0 M
  • Paddington 2 (3,702 theaters) - $20.0 M
  • Proud Mary (2,200 theaters*) - $19.0 M
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (3,090 theaters) - $16.5 M
  • Insidious: The Last Key (3,150 theaters) - $13.7 M
  • The Commuter (2,892 theaters) - $12.3 M
  • The Greatest Showman (2,938 theaters) - $12.0 M
  • Pitch Perfect 3 (2,507 theaters) - $7.3 M
  • Darkest Hour (1,692 theaters) - $6.4 M
* Estimated theater count

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