Summer Staggers to a Close as Mayweather and McGregor Fight Takes Center Stage
by Brad Brevet
August 24, 2017
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: At this point it's going to be close as to whether the top twelve can gross a combined $50 million, but it isn't looking promising. After an estimated $3.15 million on Friday it currently looks as if The Hitman's Bodyguard just might hit $10 million this weekend but we'll have to wait and see what kind of impact tonight's fight has on Hitman and the field.
As for new releases, The Weinstein Co.'s Leap! brought in an estimated $1.6 million and is looking at a weekend that just might reach $5 million. BH Tilt's Birth of the Dragon brought in an estimated $1.1 million and is looking at an opening that will probably fall shy of $3 million and Sony's release of All Saints will fall outside of the top ten after an estimated $575k on Friday, looking at a $1.5+ million weekend.
You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Birth of the Dragon brought in $200,000 from Thursday previews last night from 1,350 locations. This is on par with BH Tilt's The Darkness, which brought in $206k from preview screenings before opening with $4.9 million last May. Open Road's The Promise also brought in $200k on Thursday night earlier this year before its $4 million opening.
All Saints, the Affirm Films and Provident Films feature being released by Sony this weekend, took in $70,000 in Thursday preview showings starting at 7 PM from 773 locations. The only comp we have for a preview of this size is Rock the Kasbah, which brought in $75k prior to opening with $1.5 million from 2,012 theaters back in October 2015.
We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: We are looking at what may be the worst August weekend in over 20 years with a top twelve that could struggle to reach a combined $50 million, something that hasn't happened in August since 1993. In fact, while this will undoubtedly be the worst weekend of 2017 thus far, it could be the worst weekend for the top twelve since early September 2014 should Mojo's current forecast hold. For more context, August is currently pacing 36% behind last year and expected to be the first August since 2000 not to have a new release top $100 million domestically.
That said, this weekend features a trio of new wide releases and several films expanding (or returning to theaters), but beyond that a lot of attention goes to Saturday night's Mayweather-McGregor fight, which must be taken into account. Current projections anticipate nearly 50 million people will be watching the fight in the U.S. alone, and while this weekend doesn't feature a debut the size of Avengers: Age of Ultron, which is said to have been affected by the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight in 2015, every little bit counts at a time when domestic box office revenues are down as much as they are right now.
Among the films that could be dinged by the fight, last weekend's #1 film, The Hitman's Bodyguard should repeat atop the chart this weekend, but whether it can reach double digits is another question. On a typical weekend we'd anticipate this film would dip around 48% or so, but with the fight taking place we're dinging this one a little harsher, expecting a drop around 53% and a second weekend that just ekes out $10 million. In second is WB and New Line's Annabelle: Creation, which is looking at a drop around 52% and a three-day around $7.5 million as it pushes toward $80 million domestically.
Third place is where we expect to find the first of the weekend's new releases with The Weinstein Co.'s animated feature Leap!. Debuting in 2,575 theaters, Leap! has been in theaters internationally since December 2016 where it has so far racked up nearly $60 million. This weekend industry expectations peg the film at a $4-5 million opening, which is quite low based on historical averages, but with a lack of marketing it would appear this one is unlikely to live up to the averages.
Christopher Nolan's Dunkirk is looking at a fourth place finish with another $4.4 million or so as it nears $175 million domestically and Bleecker's Logan Lucky could give it a run for its money, but we're anticipating a 47% second weekend drop for the heist-comedy and a fifth place finish with $4 million.
Outside the top five we begin with All Saints, Sony's latest faith-based release from Affirm, which is going for the long-play, debuting in ~800 locations, heading for a weekend right around $3.3 million. This is the same weekend Sony released War Room back in 2015 and it went on to gross over $67 million domestically after 108 days in release.
Weinstein's Wind River, which expanded into nearly 700 theaters last weekend, is adding 1,400 more this weekend for a total of 2,095 where it should pull in anywhere from $3-4 million. We're expecting a weekend on the lower end of that range, though wouldn't be too surprised to see it finish +/- $500k on either side.
The last of the weekend's new releases is BH Tilt's Birth of the Dragon, which is described as an homage to the style of martial arts films for which Bruce Lee was famous. This, of course, makes this an interesting title for a weekend where a major fight is taking most of the air out of the room and threatens to steal most of this film's audience on Saturday at the very least. The studio's hope is for an opening over $3 million, and based on what we're looking at that's not entirely out of the realm of possibility, but the fight does have us going a bit more conservative with an opening around $2.75 million.
Outside the top ten, a pair of titles that are also expanding this weekend include A24's Good Time and Neon's Ingrid Goes West. Good Time, which stars Robert Pattinson and Jennifer Jason Leigh is heading into 721 theaters (+701) where we expect it will bring in around $2 million or so while Ingrid is adding 621 locations and should be looking at around $1.5-1.75 million this weekend.
Elsewhere, look for Wonder Woman to possibly challenge for a spot in the top ten as it is adding over 1,400 theaters, including several IMAX locations, hoping to bolster that already $404.4 million domestic gross. Sony's Baby Driver is also adding locations as is Universal and Illumination's Despicable Me 3, which will play in 1,551 theaters this weekend, a 557 jump compared to last weekend.
In limited release, Fox International is releasing A Gentleman into 135 locations; Neon is releasing Beach Rats into three theaters; Entertainment's Served Like a Girl will play in nine locations; and Disturb Films will re-release Terminator 2 in 3D into a limited number of locations.
This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results (should there be any) followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- The Hitman's Bodyguard (3,398 theaters) - $10.0 M
- Annabelle: Creation (3,565 theaters) - $7.5 M
- Leap! (2,575 theaters) - $5.2 M
- Dunkirk (2,774 theaters) - $4.4 M
- Logan Lucky (3,031 theaters) - $4.0 M
- All Saints (845 theaters) - $3.3 M
- Wind River (2,095 theaters) - $3.0 M
- Birth of the Dragon (1,617 theaters) - $2.8 M
- Spider-Man: Homecoming (2,122 theaters) - $2.6 M
- Girls Trip (1,768 theaters) - $2.5 M
Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us at @boxofficemojo and author Brad Brevet at @bradbrevet.