'Hidden Figures' Poised to Top MLK Weekend Ahead of Several New & Expanding Releases
by Brad Brevet
January 12, 2017
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: With an estimated $5.5 million on Friday Hidden Figures is leading the way. At this time industry expectations range from $18-20 million for the three-day with the four-day climbing anywhere from $22-28 million based on these early results.
Of the weekend's brand new releases, STX's The Bye Bye Man is leading the way with ease as the studio once again proves they know how to market and distribute low budget horror. The film took in an estimated $5.43 million on Friday and is expected to deliver $13-15 million for the three-day weekend and upwards of $15-17 million for the 4-day.
Lionsgate's La La Land is making good use of its record, seven Golden Globe wins as it brought in an estimated $4.1 million on Friday and is looking at a three-day weekend around $14 million and a four-day of $17 million as its domestic cume will climb over $75 million.
Lionsgate and CBS's release of Patriots Day, which expanded to 3,120 locations yesterday and brought in $4.13 million. Weekend expectations currently have the film falling below Mojo's expectations, finishing somewhere around $12+ million for the three-day and around $15 million for the four-day.
Finishing a tick ahead of industry expectations and above Mojo's forecast, Paramount's Monster Trucks brought in an estimated $2.6 million on Friday and is expected to deliver around $10.5 million for the three-day and perhaps top $14 million for the four-day weekend.
Open Road's Sleepless starring Jamie Foxx and T.I. brought in an estimated $3 million on Friday and is looking at an $8.3 million weekend and around $9.5 million for the four day.
Ben Affleck's Live by Night is performing as expected, which is to say not that well. The film brought in just $1.95 million on Friday (including $325,000 in Thursday previews) and is looking at a $5.36 million three-day and just over $6 million for the four-day.
Finally, Martin Scorsese's Silence expanded into 747 theaters and brought in $660,000 on Friday and is looking to finish just above $2 million for the three-day and around $3.3 million for the four-day weekend.
You can check out all the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a look at the three-day weekend.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Last night Patriots Day brought in $560,000 from Thursday night previews from a little over 2,000 theaters with screenings beginning at 7 PM. The film rolls into 3,120 theaters today and industry expectations currently see the film delivering a second place finish behind Hidden Figures for the weekend.
Also last night, The Bye Bye Man brought in $400,000, which compares well to the $344k The Lazarus Effect brought in before opening with $10.2 million in February 2015 and is a bit behind Oculus, which brought in $475k on Thursday night in April 2014 before opening with $12 million.
WB's Live by Night took in $325,000 on Thursday night. This compares to 3 Days to Kill which also brought in $325k on Thursday night back in February 2014 and opened with $12.2 million. Also, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit brought in $330k on Thursday and opened with $15.4 million. On the lower end of the comparative range, Triple 9 brought in $330,000 on Thursday night in February of last year and opened with $6.1 million.
Finally, Open Road's Sleepless brought in $410,000 from 1,411 theaters. Given Sleepless is debuting in only 1,803 theaters there aren't many comparisons to make though Brick Mansions did bring in $400k on Thursday night before opening with $9.5 million in 2,647 theaters, which would seem to give a pretty good indication of what kind of opening Sleepless is looking at given it is playing in only 68% as many theaters as Brick Mansions opened in.
If you were wondering, Paramount tells us they didn't hold preview screenings for Monster Trucks or any advanced showings of Silence ahead of its further expansion this weekend.
You can check out our weekend preview below and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a look at Friday estimates.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: It's shaping up to be a competitive Martin Luther King Jr. weekend with three new wide releases hitting theaters along with two major expansions and the moderate expansion of Martin Scorsese's Silence. Yet, even with that being the case, after narrowly edging out Rogue One: A Star Wars Story for the #1 spot last weekend, Hidden Figures is looking at a more decisive victory this weekend as the film adds more than 800 theaters.
The new releases include STX's PG-13 horror The Bye Bye Man, Paramount is finally delivering Monster Trucks and Open Road will premiere the Jamie Foxx starrer Sleepless into just over 1,800 theaters. In addition to new releases Lionsgate and CBS Films brings Patriots Day to audiences nationwide and Warner Bros. will do the same for Ben Affleck's Live by Night, but while the former is looking at a solid debut the latter has struggled in limited release. There's also the case of a little film called La La Land, which went home with a record number of Golden Globe wins on Sunday and is now adding a few more theaters including 148 IMAX screens. Let's break it down.
As word of mouth continues to spread, Fox's Hidden Figures is looking at a very strong three and four-day weekend after bringing in $22.8 million as it launched nationwide last weekend. This weekend it will be playing in 3,286 theaters (+815) with no reason to slow down and perhaps even improve. Fandango tells us the film was leading Thursday morning sales after leading sales on Tuesday and narrowly being edged out by sales leader La La Land on Monday and Wednesday, but we'll get to La La in a second. As for a Hidden Figures forecast, a second weekend at #1 seems a very strong possibility, bringing in around $22 million over the three-day and heading north of $25 million for the four-day holiday weekend.
Expected to finish in the runner-up position is Lionsgate and CBS Films's expansion of Peter Berg's Patriots Day starring Mark Wahlberg in a re-telling of the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing. The film is expanding into 3,120 theaters after playing in seven theaters since debuting on December 21, bringing in just shy of $1 million as of today. Industry expectations peg the film at a $15-18 million three-day and a $20+ million four-day weekend, all of which seems about right. However, to look at the film's performance on IMDb it's pacing behind Hacksaw Ridge and well behind previous Berg-Wahlberg collaborations Lone Survivor and Deepwater Horizon. Fandango does tell us it is outpacing Hacksaw heading into the weekend, which gives reason to push our three-day forecast above $15 million, resulting in something closer to $17-18.3 million for the three-day and a four-day anywhere from $20-24 million.
How third place shapes out depends mostly on La La Land's performance. We're anticipating a three-day for Rogue One around $14 million and $12.6 million for Universal and Illumination's Sing. Our current three-day expectation for La La is around $12.5 million from 1,843 theaters (+328) including a one week run on 148 IMAX screens. As already mentioned, the film lead Fandango's daily sales on Monday and Wednesday and yesterday it finally topped Rogue One to finish in second place for the day as its domestic cume approaches $60 million. Can it keep that up over the weekend and just how many of the film's sales heading into the weekend are for moviegoers getting a jump start in purchasing tickets for IMAX showings?
Industry expectations peg La La Land around $10 million for the three-day and $12-13 million for the four day as the film should be topping $70 million domestically by the end of the day Monday. We're a little more bullish in our expectations, anticipating $12.5 million for the three-day and $15+ million for the four-day.
Next we finally come to two of the weekend's new wide releases beginning with STX's The Bye Bye Man, which will debut in 2,220 theaters. Previously STX released The Boy in late January in 2,671 theaters where it opened with $10.7 million before going on to gross nearly $36 million. A peek at IMDb page view performance shows Bye Bye Man performing well behind The Boy as well as films such as The Forest and STX's The Gift which opened with $12.7 million and $11.8 million respectively. All things considered a three-day around $7.5 million seems a safe expectation and a four-day below $10 million seems likely.
Things aren't looking any better for Paramount's Monster Trucks, a film that carries a reported $125 million budget and for which Viacom has already taken a $115 million write down. That said, the film will be released in 3,119 theaters this weekend where industry exceptions anticipate a $8-10 million four-day weekend, which may prove bullish.
Comparing Monster Trucks's IMDb page view performance to titles such as Ratchet & Clank, Middle School and Max Steel doesn't prove favorably for the film as audience interest and awareness appears to be on the extreme low end. At this point we're forecasting a mere $7 million three-day and $8.35 million four-day and even that feels generous.
Further down the list we come to Open Road's Sleepless featuring Jamie Foxx and T.I. as a couple of corrupt cops. The film will debut in 1,803 theaters and expectations aren't too high for this one either as a three-day around $5 million and four-day around $6.3 million figure to be just about right as the lack of reviews and buzz don't bode well.
Finally we come to Ben Affleck's Live by Night, which has simply failed to energize audiences or critics since debuting in four theaters on Christmas Day and so far brought in a mere $181,963. This weekend it rolls into 2,822 theaters and expectations are low. Like Affleck's directorial debut, Gone Baby Gone, Live by Night is based on a Dennis Lehane novel, in line with previous Lehane adaptations such as Mystic River, Shutter Island and The Drop, the latter of which has the lowest wide opening of the lot at $4.1 million from 809 theaters. Live by Night doesn't look that dire, especially given the disparity in theater counts, though it wouldn't be entirely surprising if it failed to merely eek into the top ten. That said, we're currently anticipating a $7.3 million three-day as it hopes to top $9 million for the four-day.
Outside the top ten, look for Martin Scorsese's Silence to score around $2+ million for the three-day and $3+ million for the four-day from 747 theaters (+696) and FIP's Ok Jaanu will release in 121 theaters.
This weekend's three and four-day forecasts are directly below.
3-DAY WEEKEND FORECAST
- Hidden Figures (3,286 theaters) - $22 M
- Patriots Day (3,120 theaters) - $17.5 M
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (3,162 theaters) - $14.1 M
- Sing (3,688 theaters) - $12.6 M
- La La Land (1,843 theaters) - $12.5 M
- Underworld: Blood Wars (3,070 theaters) - $7.5 M
- The Bye Bye Man (2,220 theaters) - $7.5 M
- Live By Night (2,822 theaters) - $7.3 M
- Monster Trucks (3,119 theaters) - $7 M
- Sleepless (1,803 theaters) - $5 M
4-DAY MLK WEEKEND FORECAST
- Hidden Figures - $25.75 M
- Patriots Day - $21.13 M
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - $16.51 M
- Sing - $15.5 M
- La La Land - $15.34 M
- The Bye Bye Man - $9.06 M
- Underworld: Blood Wars - $9.03 M
- Live By Night - $8.75 M
- Monster Trucks - $8.35 M
- Sleepless - $6.3 M
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