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Forecast: 'Get Hard,' 'Home' Could Be in Tight Race This Weekend

by Ray Subers
Get Hard
 

 
March 26, 2015

DreamWorks Animation's Home (2015) and Will Ferrell/Kevin Hart comedy Get Hard could both open north of $30 million this weekend, which would put them in a close race for first place.

Meanwhile, holdovers The Divergent Series: Insurgent and Cinderella will likely battle for third place with with around $20 million.

Playing at 3,175 locations, Get Hard checks off a handful of the boxes required for a comedy hit. First, it has two broadly-appealing, frequently successful co-stars in Will Ferrell and Kevin Hart. With the exception of a few odd choices—Land of the Lost, Semi-Pro—most Ferrell movies wind up earning at least $75 million at the domestic box office. His most recent, Anchorman: The Legend Continues, wrapped up with $127.4 million last year.

In the time since the second Anchorman opened, Hart has starred in four movies, all of which opened north of $20 million. The biggest of those was Ride Along, which opened to $41.5 million last January on its way to $134.9 million. While the other three topped out below $70 million, it's still abundantly clear that Hart has a large, loyal fanbase ready to turn out for his big-screen outings.

Aside from featuring two major comedy stars, Get Hard also has a relatable, easily explainable premise. Ahead of going to a maximum-security prison for a white collar crime, Ferrell's character recruits Hart's—who Ferrell incorrectly assumes has spent time in prison—to help him "get hard." Previews feature plenty of bits that connect directly to that premise, and play off our collective notion of what prison is like.

The movie does have some potential drawbacks. It's been widely criticized for being racist / homophobic, which could turn some viewers off. If anything, though, controversy tends to increase a movie's potential, with people heading to theaters in order to make a decision on their own and subsequently take part in the conversation.

Get Hard
's more significant issue is its abysmal reviews: as of Thursday afternoon, it was at 26 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. Still, that hasn't really hurt Hart's recent movies: Ride Along, Think Like a Man Too and The Wedding Ringer are all below 30 percent as well.

Ferrell's Step Brothers, The Other Guys, and The Campaign all opened between $26 and $36 million. That's likely the range for this as well, with the outside chance that it over-performs and winds up on par with Ride Along ($41.5 million). Warner Bros. is expecting a debut on the high end of that range (around $36 million).

Continued with a look at 'Home,' 'It Follows' and 'While We're Young,' along with official weekend predictions >>

Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us at @boxofficemojo, and follow author Ray Subers at @raysubers.

Related Stories:
Forecast: Will 'Insurgent' Top 'Divergent'?
Weekend Report: 'Insurgent' Surges to $52.3 Million, 'Gunman' Bombs



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