Forecast
Wesley Snipes practices The Art of War in his bid to conquer the charts this weekend. The cheerleaders of Bring It On beckon with booty galore. The mature mobsters of The Crew insinuate themselves upon the territory of the aged astronauts of Space Cowboys. None are exhibiting much break-out potential, so overall box office should continue to fall in line with the usual August doldrums.
Rather than a thoughtful meditation on its namesake, the ancient Sun Tzu treatise, The Art of War is just a by-the-numbers thriller written by the same guy whose only other credit is the similarly mundane Snipes-starrer Murder at 1600.
Snipes is a proven action star, with all of his hits, save his biggest White Men Can't Jump, being in this vein. His last star turn Blade was unsheathed at about this time two years ago with $17.1 million from 2,322 theaters, ultimately dicing up $70.1 million total.
Art should benefit from being the first pure action flick since Gone in 60 Seconds and Shaft. However, Universal Soldier: The Return and Chill Factor had a similar situation when they opened at this time last year. Granted though, Art looks more kick-ass than those two bombs, which each opened to around $4.5 million. Plus, while not exactly the same genre, The 13th Warrior debuted with $10.3 million on this weekend last year.
However, the vibe exuded by Art's ad campaign is closer to that of a Jean-Claude Van Damme vehicle like Knock-Off and Maximum Risk, than, say, Blade or Passenger 57.
Contrary to conventional wisdom and its 2,630-theater release, The Art of War may not defeat its opponents this weekend as an opening in the $10 million vicinity seems in order.
Bring It On marks the unexpectedly formidable competition as the cheerleader comedy enters the tournament with teen girls firmly in its ranks. The suburbia versus inner city aspect could even rally kids from both sides of the tracks.
Now, traditionally speaking, this is not the time to bring on the teen flicks. Kids don't like to be reminded that the new school year looms. For example, Bring It On star Kirsten Dunst didn't have much luck with her late summer teen flicks last year. The similarly competition-themed Drop Dead Gorgeous opened to $4 million and dropped out of the pageant with $10.6 million total, while Dick was impeached with just $2.2 million en route to $6.3 million total. Then again, none of those, nor any from recent Augusts past, have been launched with such verve.
The plethora of booty shots could make guys quite amenable to it as well. Just contemplating that car wash scene with the girls shakin' that thang in their bikinis... Mmmm, quite amenable indeed. What's more, such blatant T & A didn't deter girls from flocking to Coyote Ugly.
Ra-ra-ing at 2,381 theaters, Bring It On could arouse enough box office spirit to win the game, possibly opening in the low teen range.
The Crew has a remarkably similar high concept as this month's sleeper hit Space Cowboys. Instead of Grumpy Old Men meets Armageddon, it's Grumpy Old Men meets Goodfellas, replete with four old guys and a black-and-white opening sequence of when they were young. Cowboys, however, had bonafide star power, special effects, action, good reviews and a much wider release, translating to a $18.1 million blast-off.
Burt Reynolds and Richard Dreyfuss simply haven't been known as mobsters in the past. The former is iconic mostly for Smokey and the Bandit and hanging out with Dom Deluise, and the latter for, well, being a whiny liberal. Hence, the comedy, in potential audience's minds, should lack the punch that Robert DeNiro had riffing on his persona in Analyze This, or even James Caan in Mickey Blue Eyes, which opened to $10.2 million about this time last year. Then again, Bruce Willis had the same problem with The Whole Nine Yards, yet that became a modest hit, opening to $13.7 million last February and closing with $57.3 million total.
Throw in the hesitancy of its older-skewing audience to turn out on opening weekend, and The Crew should have a modest debut from its 1,510 theaters.
Over the same frame last year, The Sixth Sense saw yet another weekend atop the charts, easing by 16% to $20.1 million and $138.9 million after four weeks. The 13th Warrior hacked its way into second with $10.3 million from 2,306 theaters. The long delayed and costly epic mustered just $32.7 million by the end of its campaign. Four other studio dumps debuted to piddling numbers. In Too Deep uncovered $4.2 million from 667 joints on course to $14 million. The Astronaut's Wife never got off the ground with $4 million from 2,209 pads, sputtering out at $10.7 million. Albert Brooks' The Muse amused few with $3.9 million from 1,263 venues on its way to an uninspiring $11.6 million. Brendan Fraser started the summer with a smash hit The Mummy and ended it with the dud Dudley Do-Right, doing just $3 million from 1,802 theaters and fumbling its way to a $9.8 million total.
