Forecast

Keanu Reeves hopes to "whoa" the crowd with The Replacements. Richard Gere and Winona Ryder extinguish sparks in Autumn in New York. Whilst Bless the Child tries to damn the competition, damn them all to hell!

The Replacements is yet another sports picture about the ragtag underdogs rising to the occasion, a la Major League or Necessary Roughness. For the first time since the Bill & Ted movies, Keanu goes for intentional laughs to prove he's worth his astronomical post-Matrix asking price.

The ads mostly just show the football players singing and dancing to disco classic "I Will Survive," interspersed with a handful of blooper style hijinks. Nary a laugh to be found. Then at the end, Keanu Reeves and Gene Hackman are mentioned as an afterthought, nary a clip of them to be found before that. If you're going to pay $15 million for Keanu, why not highlight his presence in the picture? This is the second bungled campaign in a row for Warner Bros. after Space Cowboys, which still managed to open well on the strength of its premise and stars alone. The Replacements is weaker on this front.

On the other hand, football pictures have been on a minor roll lately. The last one Any Given Sunday (also from the WB) grossed $20.6 million in its first five days this past Christmas, scoring $75.5 million total. It wasn't a comedy though. Before that came Varsity Blues with an upset opening of $15.2 million in January 1999, ending up at the $52.9 million line. Both of those pictures started during the NFL playoffs, whereas The Replacements kicks off during the pre-season. Therefore, it's coming in before the frenzy, yet after a long draught.

Warner Bros. did hold sneak previews the past two weekends to drum up some word-of-mouth. The humor appears to be somewhat similar to Adam Sandler's smash, The Waterboy, making it appealing to guys. Plus, this is the first sports picture of the season, and those shots of writhing cheerleaders can't hurt with this crowd. Keanu's presence and love interest could make it more palatable for girls as well.

Starting its drive in 2,754 stadiums, The Replacements could displace Hollow Man from the top spot with an opening in the mid-teens.

Bless the Child recently settled on this date after being in release schedule limbo. Since it features a kid with supernatural talents, the obvious intent is to repeat last August's Sixth Sense success, which also happened to be a last minute summer addition. The thing is, it has more similarities to Eddie Murphy's The Golden Child, with only the religion and the tone differentiating it.

Business should be closer to Stir of Echoes than Sense. Catch phrase "After you" won't likely capture America in the way that "I see dead people" did. With the millennium behind us, people just aren't as interested in satanic thrillers. Last year, even similar pictures like End of Days and Stigmata didn't fare as well as Blair Witch and others among the horror renaissance. The Ninth Gate opened to $6.6 million earlier this year, mustering $18.7 million total.

The final "shock" shot of a demon howling through a train window doesn't mesh with Kim Basinger's initial reaction shot, not to mention that the creature is hokey. Therefore, the intended scare does not occur, no matter how much the voice of Paramount wants you to be thrilled, who happens to sound a lot like the snooty BMW announcer if he was on crack.

Basinger has never been a real box office draw, though she's at her most potent in sexy roles. After a two-year hiatus since winning the Oscar for L.A. Confidential, she opened the summer in the more matronly I Dreamed of Africa. It grossed just $6.5 million total. Bless the Child is a similar style of role, though the elements surrounding her are bankable enough to gross more.

Cursing 2,524 theaters with its presence, Bless the Child could take in around $9 million riding on the heels of the waning horror train. It's too glossy and generic than genuinely creepy to break out though.

Speaking of creepy, Richard Gere and Winona Ryder "remind us what it's like to fall in love" and to lose our lunch in Autumn in New York. Ryder already looks and acts younger than her 28 years, making the age disparity, not to mention the lack of chemistry, all the more pronounced.

When Ryder shrieks "You're fabulous" to Gere, it's cringe-inducing. That girl's voice just seems to get shriller and shriller as she gets older. To be fair, the writers gave her some real howlers. Such as when Gere asks "What do you want for Christmas," she answers "More of this." Or "Now, I know why you've loved so many women. Because you knew if you ever held onto one, you'd never let go... Never." "Now, I'm getting veklempt" is the next thing you expect to come out of her mouth a la Mike Myers' Coffee Talk.

The commercials reveal the terminal illness of Ryder's character halfway through. Then that Goo Goo Dolls song blares, the one that's played over just about every ad for movies or shows with romantic elements. "So why don't you slide..." An unintentionally jolting juxtaposition it seems.

The picture's title is, of course, a cliched and obvious metaphor. Ryder's character is dying like the leaves in autumn, while, at middle age, Gere is in the autumn of his life. Not to mention, the affair is set in autumn. And, yes, people got paid for this.

MGM didn't screen the picture for critics, reportedly because they didn't want the ending revealed. No one buys that though. Rarely are critics in the business of spoilers. The real reason is likely the usual one, the movie stinks and they want to wait until after the opening before word-of-mouth sets in too much. After all, reviews are more likely to affect this kind of picture than the usual summer fare.

If anything, it's MGM's own marketing campaign that seems to give away key plot points like the terminal illness. Besides, spoilers shouldn't concern them too much since the target demographic is adult women. As DreamWorks cynically demonstrated with What Lies Beneath and Paramount with Double Jeopardy, this audience seems to prefer to know what's going to happen ahead of time.

With this summer release date for Autumn, MGM hopes to repeat their Thomas Crown Affair success from last year. What they have, though, is more akin to their Val Kilmer-starrer At First Sight. That reviled sop-fest opened to $7.3 million in January 1999, seeing just $22.4 million total.

In Autumn's favor, the only other picture to appeal specifically to the same demo this season has been What Lies Beneath, and Gere is a proven draw among it. Autumn's the first romance as well.

Tear jerking off at 2,255 theaters, an $8 million start could be in store, possibly finishing outside the top five.

Audience reaction to Hollow Man's vacuous actions hasn't been favorable. Paul Verhoeven's previous picture, the disliked Starship Troopers lost the war, plunging 55% in is second week. Teens free during the week can only exasperate Hollow Man's descent, and, as X-Men and The Klumps proved, even pictures that people enjoy can nosedive. If around 50% of Hollow's audience disappear this weekend, it would gross about $13 million, struggling with The Replacements for first.

The ad campaign for Space Cowboys is finally taking off, featuring the stars more prominently and more snippets of their banter. Throw in positive word-of-mouth and an older audience that doesn't necessarily rush out on the first weekend, and Clint Eastwood and the crew could abate by just 30% to around $12 million, possibly even out-gunning their fellow sophomores.

Coyote Ugly's a dive this weekend. It dropped 19% last Saturday instead of the usual bump-up. Disconcerting, as only specifically teen-appeal pictures tend to do that during the summer. Add some mixed word-of-mouth, and these $45 million buxom barmaids could spring a leak, splashing silicone and collagen all over uber-producer Jerry Bruckheimer. A 45% dip would give them around $9.5 million.

On the same frame last year, The Sixth Sense phenomenon became fully apparent as it declined by just 3% in its second outing to $25.8 million and the top spot. Bowfinger bowed in second place with $18.1 million from 2,706 theaters. The highly anticipated Eddie Murphy/Steve Martin teaming reached a disappointing $66.5 million total. Brokedown Palace, the teen Midnight Express, was sentenced to ninth place and $3.9 million opening, $10.1 million total. KISS flick, Detroit Rock City, got dissed with just $2 million and 13th place, managing $4.2 million total.