'Ford v Ferrari' Racing Toward $30 Million Debut, 'Charlie's Angels' Far from Heavenly
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Fox's Ford v Ferrari is living up to tracking expectations, out performing Mojo's pre-weekend forecast after bringing in an estimated $10.9 million on Friday, racing toward a $30 million three-day weekend. On top of that, while we knew critics already liked the film, opening day audiences gave it an impressive "A+" CinemaScore, boding well for the rest of the weekend and beyond.

Sony's Charlie's Angels, however, isn't living up even to the most modest of pre-weekend expectations, bringing in just $3.15 million on Friday, looking at a three-day weekend around $8 million. The film received a "B+" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.

WB's The Good Liar brought in an estimated $1.635 million on Friday and is heading toward a three-day performance around $5 million. The film received a "B" CinemaScore from opening day audiences.

You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.

FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Fox's Ford v Ferrari brought in a solid $2.1 million from Thursday evening previews. A look at some of our pre-weekend comps shows First Man bringing in $1.1 million in previews ahead of a $16 million opening, Deepwater Horizon only brought in $860k in previews in advance of a $20.2 million debut and Midway delivered $925k in previews ahead of its $17.9 million opening. All comps point to a three-day performance ahead of Mojo's forecast.

Additionally, Sony's release of Charlie's Angels took in $900k from Thursday showings which began at 4:30PM in 2,968 locations. The performance trails one of our pre-weekend comps, 2017's King Arthur, which brought in $1.15 million in previews ahead of a $15.3 million opening. The studio is still projecting a $12-13 million opening for the film.

We'll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: Last weekend saw the top ten deliver the lowest combined total for the same weekend since 2007, bringing in just over $100 million. This weekend, should our forecast hold, we'll be looking at a sub-$100 million weekend for the top ten and what could be one of the worst weekends of the year. Among the week's new releases, Fox's Ford v Ferrari hopes to prove there is still an audience for adult-targeted, larger budget features alongside the release of Sony's Charlie's Angels and WB's The Good Liar.

At number one, look for Fox's Ford v Ferrari to pull into the winner's circle. A few months before Disney's acquisition of Fox was final, the decision was made to move director James Mangold's story of Ford's attempt to challenge Ferrari at the 24 Hours of Le Mans in 1966 from a summer release to a more awards-friendly Fall release. The film has since played at a multitude of film festivals, including Telluride and Toronto, and received a positive critical response — 91% on RottenTomatoes and 76 on Metacritic. The film will debut in 3,528 locations this weekend and the studio is going onservative with their expectations, anticipating an opening in the high-teens while industry expectations are looking for a debut in the $21-30 million range.

From our perspective, while we would like to go along with industry expectations, a lot of what we're seeing suggests an opening closer to $20 million may be more likely. A look at IMDb page views leading up to release show Ford v Ferrari outpacing last weekend's surprise #1 finisher, Midway ($17.9m opening) while pacing just behind the likes of First Man ($16m opening) and Deepwater Horizon ($20.2m opening). Comps to films such as Sully and Captain Phillips show Ford v Ferrari in the rearview, though not so far behind as to suggest it can't finish a bit higher. As a result, we're going out a bit higher than studio expectations and on the lighter end of industry tracking, looking for a $22 million opening for the reported, $98 million production.

In the runner-up position is Sony's Charlie's Angels, serving as the third time the television franchise has been brought to the big screen following the pair of films released in 2000 and 2003. From writer/director/star Elizabeth Banks, the film will launch in over 3,400 theaters, including IMAX and PLF performances, and the studio is anticipating a three-day opening anywhere from $12-13 million, which mostly lines up with our expectations with some room for upside.

IMDb page view data over the two weeks leading up to release shows Angels pacing similarly to 2017's King Arthur, which launched with $15.3 million and while it is pacing behind films such as Dark Phoenix and 2016's Tarzan, it's not so far behind as to say there isn't a chance for this one to top $15 million this weekend. For now we're going out with a $13 million forecast, hoping to know a bit more tomorrow following this evening's previews, which begin at 4:30PM in over 2,700 locations.

Lionsgate's Midway surprised most everyone last weekend with its #1 finish, though whether that surprise was due more to its success or the failure of Doctor Sleep to live up to expectations is up for debate. After taking advantage of the Veteran's Day holiday on Monday, the film has delivered over $25 million so far and we're looking for it to add another $8.6 million over the three-day, for a domestic cume around $35 million by the end of the weekend.

Paramount's Playing with Fire also over performed last weekend and should continue to serve its target audience this weekend as we expect it to bring in another $7 million over the three-day, pushing its domestic cume close to $24 million after ten days in release.

Rounding out the top five we have WB's Doctor Sleep, which struggled mightily last weekend. The film did, however, appeal to those that saw it, earning a solid (given its genre) "B+" CinemaScore. This has us expecting a slightly better hold than what we might otherwise expect, going into the weekend anticipating a $6.8 million three-day and a domestic cume over $25 million by the end of the weekend.

Just outside the top five we find WB's Joker, which should see its domestic cume climb near $323 million this weekend, but even more to the studio's liking, it will top $1 billion at the global box office by the end of the weekend. As far as DC Comics adaptations go, Joker will be only the fourth to have ever topped $1 billion globally, joining Aquaman ($1.148b), The Dark Knight Rises ($1.084b) and The Dark Knight ($1.003b).

A bit further down the list we come to yet another WB film, this time the dramatic thriller The Good Liar starring Helen Mirren and Ian McKellen. Debuting in 2,439 locations, studio expectations for the film are for a $5 million opening, which is right around where we are, though we're going just a notch higher, anticipating a $6 million launch.

In limited release, Roadside will debut The Warrior Queen of Jhansi in 2476 theaters and A24 will open Waves in four locations. Meanwhile, Amazon Studios's Honey Boy adds 14 locations, playing in a total of 17 after delivering a chart-topping $75,266 per theater average last weekend.

This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

  • Ford v Ferrari (3,528 theaters) - $22.0 M
  • Charlie's Angels (3,452 theaters) - $13.0 M
  • Midway (3,242 theaters) - $8.5 M
  • Playing with Fire (3,185 theaters) - $7.0 M
  • Doctor Sleep (3,855 theaters) - $6.8 M
  • Joker (2,337 theaters) - $6.2 M
  • Last Christmas (3,454 theaters) - $6.0 M
  • The Good Liar (2,439 theaters) - $6.0 M
  • Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (2,549 theaters) - $4.9 M
  • Terminator: Dark Fate (2,477 theaters) - $4.9 M

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