Forecast

The major new releases all appeal to the adult demographic. While not unusal for the fall, none are particularly striking and all face significant holdover competition, keeping any of them from truly breaking out.

Double Jeopardy (a.k.a. The Fugitive Part III) is by far the widest new release with 2,547 theaters. Tommy Lee Jones again plays the pursuer. Ashley Judd is the fugitive this time. This picture looks so utterly uninspired and the ad campaign seems to give so much away, that it's hard to see it doing too well. But it is the first adult thriller in a while, the stars are appealing, and the premise, as tired as it may be, still strikes a chord with many. It will probably make enough for first place.

Jakob the Liar sees Robin Williams playing his now trademark role, the crying clown curing with laughter. Word is that he is more restrained this time out, but the public will likely perceive it as yet another Williams weepy, for better or worse. It will also be hurt by Life is Beautiful having been such a big hit. Featuring Williams taking care of a child in the ad campaign doesn't help either. The second of two pictures with similar stories almost invariably fares worse than the first (such as EDTV bombing after The Truman Show hit). Still, Williams is among the few who can open a picture, so this should at least see some modest numbers from its 1,200-theater release.

With Runaway Bride and Bowfinger aging, the market may be ripe for another adult-appeal comedy, but Mumford will not likely take advantage of this. It's not really that it's lacking star power. It's more that it looks sitcom-ish in the advertising, not something many would go out of their way to see. Playing at 1,452 theaters, business should be as slight as the picture itself.

The delayed Dog Park finally debuts at theaters probably more to promote its video release than anything else. It has had an amateurish ad campaign, which is usually a death knell. So playing at 512 theaters, it should make next to nothing. I have seen no commercials for Simon Sez starring Dennis Rodman, just a chintzy print ad. This one's from the same distributor that brought you Love Stinks. They call themselves Independent Artists. What a pretentious name for such purveyors of schlock. Playing at 504 theaters, their latest should make a miniscule amount befitting Rodman's has-been status.

Meanwhile, American Beauty expands to 429 theaters and should easily have the highest average. For Love of the Game looks like it will take a significant tumble for an adult picture. Considering the relative lack of pictures appealing to the young, Blue Streak should hold up strongly enough for at least a second place finish.

For the specific predictions, check out the Forecast.