Forecast

Pokemon: The First (and Unfortunately Not the Last) Movie opened Wednesday to monstrous numbers, $10.1 million from 2,901 theaters. That's the biggest Wednesday launch for an animated picture, beating Toy Story's $4.8 million opening back from November 1995, and it's the fourth biggest of all time. On Thursday, it racked up $9.6 million, suggesting it will fade fast considering that 60% of schools were off for Veteran's Day. Obviously, it will dominate this weekend, though it doesn't look like it will beat The Lion King's animated opening weekend record of $40.9 million.

The hullabaloo begs the question: What the hell is Pokemon? With a title like that, you'd think it'd be a featured attraction in West Hollywood. Turns out, this is the same cartoon that gave kids seizures in Japan. The commercials I've seen have only shown brief flashes of the movie, probably to hide the sub-par animation. What they do promote is that now you can see your favorite Pokemon 30 ft. tall and that you can free cards with each ticket. Whoopty-do.

The Messenger: The Story of Joan of Arc stars Milla Jovovich, who, scarily, looks like Leonardo DiCaprio in the ads. Sony has done a decent job promoting it though. The problem is that the Joan of Arc mini-series from last May stole a lot of its thunder, and, in general, made people less interested in seeing yet another movie on the subject. That mini-series didn't pull in the best ratings either. So if people aren't that willing to see it for free on the TV, they aren't likely going to pay to see at the movies. The mixed reviews don't help either. Playing at 2,147 theaters, look for modest numbers.

Moviegoers may take the title Anywhere But Here as advice and see any picture but it. Fox sure is promoting the heck out of it though. On the plus side, it is the only picture to specifically appeal to teen girls, though they seem to prefer slight and derivative comedies like She's All That. Susan Sarandon and rising starlet Natalie Portman also provide solid star power, contributing to a modest opening from 1,673 theaters.

Despite the controversy, Dogma should fail to achieve mainstream success for Kevin Smith, despite the presence of the Affleck and Damon team. It will be hurt by the its amateurish look in the ad campaign, stemming from a low budget and Smith's questionable directing abilities. Also, it has been in the can for so long, that its 1,260-theater opening is rather anti-climactic.