Forecast

After attempting to prove his acting chops in the artsy-fartsy Eyes Wide Shut and Magnolia, Tom Cruise returns in a Tom Cruise role with Mission: Impossible 2 (or M:I-2 as Paramount would like you to call it), hoping to establish a lucrative franchise. After all, he reportedly earned $70 million from backend participation in the first one. Never mind that this is Mission: Impossible in name alone with only the theme song and self-destructing messages to distinguish it from being a distilled James Bond wanna-be with some Hong Kong chop-socky thrown in.

Like the original, the sequel features a well-known director and an exotic beauty. The first had Brian De Palma and French import Emmanuelle Beart. This time it's John Woo and the beloved Thandie Newton. Also like the original, this was a troubled production that went over-budget (to a reported $125 million) and had to be bumped from its initial holiday release date to May. The production overran so much in fact that Newton had to bow out of Charlie's Angels (replaced by Shanghai Noon's Lucy Liu) and Dougray Scott, who plays the bad guy, had to pass on being Wolverine in X-Men.

Unlike the original, the "plot" has been simplified and additional exposition added to make damn certain that the audience doesn't get confused like they did last time. But this picture isn't about plot. It's essentially a video game that you can't play, from the acrobatic one-on-one fights straight out of Street Fighter to the dance of the Porsche 911 and Audi TT.

The original opened to $56.8 million and had $74.9 million after its first six days. It ended its run with $181 million (not to mention an additional $284 million overseas). The general rule of sequels is that they make approximately 60% of the original. Lately though, this rule has been broken time and again, most notably by the Austin Powers, Toy Story and Friday sequels which actually exceeded their much loved originals by wide margins. More comparable to M:I-2, the latest James Bond picture, The World is Enough, scored the biggest opening of the series, $35.5 million, and highest unadjusted gross, $126.9 million.

It appears that it's mission accomplished for Cruise though, as M:I-2 pulled in a whopping $12.5 million on Wednesday from 3,653 theaters, the new record for widest release. Its trajectory could lead it to around $65 million for the weekend, or approximately the same as the original's opening if adjusted for inflation.

In a baffling bit of scheduling, Disney opens Jackie Chan's Shanghai Noon in M:I-2's wake. This isn't exactly "counter-programming" as both are action pictures and share the same male demographic, with only the comedy and western setting to differentiate Noon. In such a match-up, one picture will almost invariably dominate, and it's usually the one that's the event, M:I-2 in this case.

It's a shame too, since Chan in his first Hollywood picture since 1998's Rush Hour, which opened to $33 million en route to $141.2 million, had hit potential if given the chance. Noon even follows the same formula as that blockbuster: a culture clash action-comedy, this time set in the old west instead of present day L.A., pairing Chan with an up-and-coming comedy star, this time Owen Wilson instead of Chris Tucker.

Further hampering it is a fairly incoherent and uninspiring ad campaign and additional direct competition from Gladiator and Road Trip. For unmitigated fun, this may likely be the picture of choice over the ponderous M:I-2, but its box office won't reflect that. Expect business in the $12 million range and a fifth-place finish.

After displaying its dino-might last weekend with a massive $38.9 million haul, Dinosaur enters this weekend confidently, knowing well that it has the whole family market to its Disney-fied self. Throw in some strong word-of-mouth amongst its target audience, and it should decline only slightly, likely reaching the $35 million range for second place.

Gladiator, sharing much the same audience with M:I-2, will likely take its biggest hit yet, emerging with around $15 million when the long weekend is done. Being a comedy, Road Trip has less to worry about, but it still shares much the same demographics plus is not the kind of picture that holds up terribly well anyway. Look for it to score in the $12 million range.

Over this same frame last year, The Phantom Menace raked in $66.9 million in its second weekend, bringing its tally to an incredible $207.1 million after just 13 days en route to $431.1 million total. In an excellent example of counter-programming, Notting Hill, appealing to a decidedly different audience, romanced $27.7 million on its way to $116.1 million. The key pictures combined made $136.9 million, a total that should easily be surpassed this weekend.