Disney's Captain America: Civil War is looking at a second place finish around $33 million after bringing in an estimated $8.7 million on Friday. This is a little less than expected, but by only a couple percentage points as we're looking at a third weekend drop around 54%.
Universal's Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising will finish third, though well behind expectations after an estimated $8.74 million on Friday and what is looking to be an opening weekend anywhere from $21-25 million, at or below half of what the original film opened with.
Finally, WB's The Nice Guys looks as if it will finish right in line with pre-weekend tracking after an estimated $3.8 million on Friday should result in an opening weekend around $11 million.
You can browse the chart of Friday estimates here and we'll be back tomorrow morning with a complete weekend round-up.
Friday AM Update: Neighbors: Sorority Rising kicked off its opening weekend with $1.67 million from Thursday night previews, which began at 7 PM in 2,627 theaters. From a comparison standpoint, the first film started off with $2.56 million, which continues to suggest we're looking at an opening well below the original's $49 million. Otherwise, Dumb and Dumber To brought in $1.6 million in 2014 before opening with $36.1 million as did Spy which ended up opening with $29 million just last year.
Sony reports Angry Birds brought in $800,000 from Thursday previews. Animated films don't frequently have Thursday previews, which makes comparisons difficult, but the closest comparisons include Big Hero 6, which brought in $1.4 million and opened with $56.2 million; Home brought in $650,000 and opened with $52.1 million; and The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water brought in $560,000 and opened with $55.3 million.
Finally, WB's The Nice Guys brought in $700,000, which is $100,000 more than Money Monster made last weekend before going on to open with nearly $15 million. A little higher on the spectrum, Pain and Gain brought in $750,000 before opening with $20.4 million. Other comparisons seem a little too far outside the spectrum of possibility, such as 21 Jump Street, which also brought in $700,000 and opened with $36.3 million, but this start does suggest an opening around $14-17 million is very likely.
Come back tomorrow morning when we'll take a look at the Friday estimates, for now the weekend preview is directly below.
Weekend Preview: It could be a photo finish atop this weekend's box office charts as Captain America: Civil War will attempt to hold off Sony's Angry Birds. Meanwhile, Universal's Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising faces a situation where the sequel isn't likely to top the original and Warner Bros. is hoping for the best with The Nice Guys, which has enjoyed the best reviews among the weekend's new wide releases, but finds itself jostling for attention among several higher profile releases.
The fight atop the box office will have a lot to do with whether or not Sony's Angry Birds is able to breakout as it charges into 3,932 theaters. Based on Rovio's mobile platform video game, the 3D animated feature carries a $73 million budget and a strong ensemble of comedic voice talent. The budgetary figure places it in the same range as Illumination's Despicable Me franchise of films, the first of which was budgeted at $69 million and opened with $56.3 million in July of 2010. Don't expect that much this weekend from Angry Birds, but with Zootopia entering its twelfth weekend in release and Finding Dory still a month out, this is a prime position for a new animated title.
Current studio expectations for Angry Birds are around $38 million, which feels a bit low. While not originally a film franchise, the Angry Birds mobile games have crept into the social consciousness, helping aid awareness for the film. (The fact the franchise's wide selection of mobile games also serve as rich opportunities for targeted marketing doesn't hurt either.) That said, the reviews are skewing slightly negative as the film carries a 46% rating on RottenTomatoes as of press time and it is never easy to predict exactly when an animated kids feature is going to breakout.
The studio's $38 million number would put it in the vicinity of an opening such as Over the Hedge, which brought in $38.46 million from 4,059 theaters back in May 2006 after scoring big with critics. Another film that opened in a similar number of theaters was 2007's Bee Movie, which opened with $38 million from 3,928 theaters. On the higher end of the spectrum you have the $43+ million openings for How to Train Your Dragon and The Croods, both of which present something of a sweet spot unless you wanted to venture as high as Madagascar's $47 million opening in May 2005. It should be noted, however, Madagascar opened on Memorial Day weekend while Over the Hedge opened the weekend before. It's a strategy that suggests a strong hold next weekend for Angry Birds, but it also suggests an opening as high as $47 million isn't entirely likely.
Moving to what will soon be 2016's first $1 billion worldwide earner, a third weekend around $40+ million is what Captain America: Civil War is looking to beat if it hopes to hold on to the #1 spot. The film's daily performance as of late, however, finds it hewing closer to a 50-52% drop, similar to Iron Man 3's 50.7% third weekend dip and Avenger: Age of Ultron's 50% third weekend drop. Last weekend it pretty much matched Ultron's 59.4% sophomore drop which means a weekend around $36 million or a couple million better is your best bet.
Moving to Neighbors 2, Universal's comedy sequel is looking to follow suit with the likes of Ted 2, Horrible Bosses 2 and Sex and the City 2, all of which are comedy sequels that weren't able to match or exceed the success of their predecessors. On average, the opening weekends for the three sequels just mentioned saw 45% drops compared to their original release with Ted 2 seeing the best original-to-sequel performance, that being a 38.4% dip compared to the original's opening. Should Neighbors 2 follow Ted's trajectory it would be looking at a $30 million opening this weekend compared to something closer to $27 million if it performs similarly to Horrible Bosses 2 or Sex and the City 2.
Working in the film's favor, reviews have trended more positive than negative. While the current 66% rating on RottenTomatoes doesn't match the original's 73% rating, it is in considerable contrast to the likes of both Ted 2 and Horrible Bosses 2, which saw much worse reviews than their respective original films. The addition of Chloe Moretz to the neighborhood doesn't hurt either as the film should perform right around $35 million if not a little higher.
Pulling in fourth is Shane Black's very well reviewed comedy The Nice Guys starring Ryan Gosling and Russell Crowe. Sporting a 91% rating on RottenTomatoes, the film is opening in 2,865 theaters this weekend and could be looking at an opening anywhere from $10-15 million. Comps are tough for this one, just as they were with Money Monster last weekend, which ultimately ended up over-performing based on early expectations. Warner Bros. is targeting a $10 million opening for Nice Guys, which is likely to also be on the low end, but by how much is the bigger question.
Speaking of Money Monster look for it to finish around $7-9 million in its second weekend while fellow holdover, BH Tilt's The Darkness, is probably looking at a drop around 62% and a second weekend below $2 million.
In limited release, Sony Classics is bringing Maggie's Plan to five theaters while expanding the release of The Meddler to 464 theaters. The latter of those two films offers audiences a double dose of Rose Byrne this weekend along with her return as Kelly Radner in Neighbors 2. As a matter of fact, by next weekend you will be able to do a Rose Byrne triple feature as X-Men: Apocalypse will be arriving in over 4,000 theaters.
Elsewhere, Fox Searchlight is adding over 100 theaters to A Bigger Splash's rollout is it will be in 128 North American theaters as of this Friday while A24 expands the release of The Lobster to 24 theaters and Roadside adds 43 theaters to the release of Love & Friendship.
This weekend's forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- The Angry Birds Movie (3,932 theaters) - $43.69 M
- Captain America: Civil War (4,226 theaters) - $36.32 M
- Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising (3,384 theaters) - $35.53 M
- The Nice Guys (2,865 theaters) - $13.61 M
- The Jungle Book (3,460 theaters) - $9.89 M
- Money Monster (3,104 theaters) - $7.84 M
- Zootopia (1,377 theaters) - $1.95 M
- The Darkness (1,769 theaters) - $1.89 M
- Mother's Day (1,719 theaters) - $1.77 M
- The Huntsman: Winter's War (1,241 theaters) - $1.34 M
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