Forecast
After a hectic Memorial Day, Hollywood likes to take one last breath before the summer movie season kicks into high gear, usually opening just one wide release of questionable quality. Last year, this weekend brought us Instinct. Two years ago it was Hope Floats. And following in their illustrious path, this year brings us the ever so crazy Martin Lawrence in Big Momma's House, the soul food variant of Mrs. Doubtfire.
You'd think nearly dying from heat exhaustion and dehydration from burying himself in sweats on a hot day last year would keep Lawrence away from anything involving a thick, heavy suit. But this is oh so crazy Martin after all, who probably had some psychological need to relive the event and conquer it metaphorically.
Production started on January 18 of THIS year. That means this picture took just four months to film, edit, test market, etc. Talk about a rush job. After all, the studio had to beat to the punch the similar fat suit schtick of Eddie Murphy in The Nutty Professor 2: The Klumps.
Out of nowhere it seems that Lawrence has become a bankable star, consistently delivering solid grosses for each of the five pictures he's starred in. Blue Streak opened to $19.2 million last September on its way to $68.2 million total, and Life co-starring Murphy opened to $20.4 million last April en route to $64.0 million.
The urban market is one rarely served in a significant way. When they are, they have delivered strong grosses to such recent pictures as Next Friday, The Best Man and the currently playing Love and Basketball in addition to Lawrence's output last year. The trailer certainly delivers a resounding whoop-whoop from its target audience, and its broad comedy should give it significant crossover appeal.
Road Trip and Shanghai Noon represent the closest competition, but they shouldn't be that much of a factor given how expansive the market has been lately. Opening at 2,804 venues, expect audiences to be in tha House with an opening in the high teens.
Since it's playing at 3,653 theaters, the widest release ever, Mission: Impossible 2 is the epitome of the saturation release. As such, everyone who was eager to see it was able to this past weekend, and the $100.1 million it has already made in its first eight days suggests that they did. Throw in the inherently front-loaded nature of sequels and the mixed word-of-mouth, and M:I-2 will likely take a steep dive.
Other post-Memorial Day drop-offs include 36% for The Phantom Menace, 59% for Godzilla, and, more comparable, 52% for The Lost World: Jurassic Park. The first Mission: Impossible also fell 52%. Look for M:I-2 to have another number one finish and a gross in the mid-to-high $20 million range.
Meanwhile, Jackie Chan's Shanghai Noon has some positive word-of-mouth going for it after a surprisingly strong $19.6 million bow. A drop of 30% would give it about $11 million this weekend.
On the comparable weekend last year, the aforementioned Instinct opened to $10.4 million en route to a $34.1 million total. Star Wars: The Phantom Menace remained on top for the third weekend in row with $32.9 million.
