Forecast

It's about damn time for a big, blustery epic. The $100 million Gladiator directed by Ridley Scott and starring Russell Crowe could fit the bill. It recalls the expensive Roman epics of the past like Ben-Hur and Spartacus, a genre that has been neglected for ages with the last one being 1964's The Fall of the Roman Empire. This alone distinguishes it in the marketplace, but the marketing has also done right by it with the rollicking "Hero Will Rise" campaign and by making an analogy with modern day sports.

Last year, The Mummy opened on this same weekend with $43.4 million. In 1998, Deep Impact took $41.2 million. Twister cemented the early May tent pole release by opening to $41.1 million in 1996. The largest R-rated opening ever was by 1997's Air Force One with $37.1 million from 2,919 theaters or approximately $41 million adjusted for inflation.

Possibly holding back Gladiator from joining the $40-million club are a relative lack of cross-gender appeal, relatively low star power and that its target audience of men certainly hasn't been deprived lately with U-571, Frequency and Rules of Engagement in the past month alone. With 5,000 screens over 2,938 theaters allowing multiple showings, the 154-minute running time won't be much of a factor though.

It goes without saying that this will be huge, likely making more money this weekend than Crowe's last picture The Insider did in its entire run.

Kim Basinger appears in her first picture since she co-starred with Crowe in L.A. Confidential. With I Dreamed of Africa, Sony hopes to counter-program to adults in the way that The Horse Whisperer did in May 1998, but its prospects look more similar to last year's A Midsummer Night's Dream. Basinger is not much of a draw, and the picture looks rather bland in the trailer. Bad reviews will hurt too, as this picture's audience is more apt to follow them. Opening at 2,112 theaters, I Dreamed of Africa can only dream of box office fortune.