Forecast

Mission to Mars is the picture that would be blockbuster this weekend. It's the first of the two Mars pictures, beating Red Planet to the punch by eight months, much like the dueling volcano pics, Dante's Peak and Volcano, and asteroid pics, Deep Impact and Armageddon. Mission has the same feel as Impact with its astronaut scenes and ensemble of well-known-but-not-bankable actors. The ad campaign also has the same feel as The Mummy with its red sandstorm and similar music. All this suggests a mid-May release, not a March one. But Disney is hoping to copy Warner Bros.'s success with The Matrix by releasing it now. While that could end up being a wise move, given the competition in May, this picture just doesn't have the buzz and the money shots. The ad campaign gives the sense that you've seen the whole picture, even spoiling the alien plot twist. It would have been more interesting (and more bankable, I suspect) if it simply documented the first trip to Mars. Why must aliens always be involved in these kinds of pictures? What's more, the picture looks too derivative of 2001, The Abyss and others. Launching at 3,054 theaters, big business is in store, though not outright blockbuster status in relation to its $100 million price tag.

Artisan tosses The Ninth Gate in Mission's trajectory, hoping to catch some spare change. Both pictures have similar demographic appeal, namely young males. Mission not only has the promotional and special effects advantage, but a more demographically inclusive PG rating. Gate is R-rated and comes off as just another cheesy Satanic thriller, a la Lord of Illusions, in its limited ad campaign, whereas similar offerings from last year, like Stigmata, had a more apocalyptic feel to them. Opening at 1,586 theaters, business should be closer to star Johnny Depp's The Astronaut's Wife than Sleepy Hollow.

Nothing exciting to report on the holdovers, with most likely to come in well below $4 million. Expect a strong hold for My Dog Skip and, and precipitous declines for Drowning Mona and The Next Best Thing.