Forecast: $140 million
Actual: $150.1 million
Neighbors always seemed well-positioned to be a comedy hit: the concept was relatable and easily explainable, the previews were laugh-out-loud funny, and early reactions were very positive. Still, to out-gross fellow Seth Rogen comedy Knocked Up ($148 million) is pretty impressive.
22 Jump Street
Forecast: $135 million
Actual: $192 million (est.)
It was clear that 21 Jump Street movie was very well-liked, and that the sequel's previews delivered the laughs. We incorrectly assumed, though, that a more competitive Summer schedule would keep 22 Jump Street on roughly the same level as its predecessor. Instead, it wound up dramatically exceeding the forecast on its way to becoming the highest-grossing live-action comedy of the year so far.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Forecast: $130 million
Actual: $190 million (est.)
At the time these predictions were made, there was only a brief teaser trailer available for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles that focused almost entirely on Megan Fox's character. Add in a competitive release date—Guardians of the Galaxy opened a week before—and it seemed likely that Ninja Turtles would at best match G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra ($150.2 million). The brand is one of the strongest in the world, though, and younger moviegoers turned this in to one
A Million Ways to Die in the West
Forecast: $125 million
Actual: $42.7 million
This prediction was based on the assumption that Seth MacFarlane was a bankable star following the enormous success of Ted. The western genre is tricky, though, and MacFarlane's leap from voiceover-only to on-screen leading man was met with a lot of resistance.
The Fault in our Stars
Forecast: $120 million
Actual: $125 million (est.)
By the time these predictions were made (mid-April), it was pretty clear that the Fault in our Stars book had a passionate, growing fan base; this prediction wound up being the most accurate one of the Summer. What wasn't foreseeable, though, was how popular the movie would be internationally. At the end of the first weekend of September, it had already earned $169 million overseas, and could be on track for close to $200 million by the end of its run.
Deliver Us From Evil
Forecast: $115 million
Actual: $30.6 million
The first trailer for Deliver Us From Evil was very effective, and it appeared to be well-positioned as counterprogramming during the month of July. Unfortunately, the later marketing material failed to live up to the initial promise, and moviegoers rejected the movie's blend of horror and police procedural. In hindsight, it was a mistake to think this would earn anywhere close to as much as The Conjuring, which was a true outlier within the horror genre.
Planes: Fire & Rescue
Forecast: $110 million
Actual: $60 million (est.)
This prediction was based mostly on the notion that the Planes sequel would benefit from the lack of animated movies this Summer. The first Planes had a lukewarm reception, though, and Fire & Rescue didn't appear to be a significant improvement; a drop from that movie's $90.3 million total should have been expected.
Forecast: $105 million
Actual: $85 million (est.)
This prediction took in to account that Melissa McCarthy has a legitimate fanbase, while also recognizing that Tammy wasn't nearly as appealing as The Heat or Identity Thief. While there was too much stock put in the starpower angle, Tammy still wound up earning a decent chunk of change by the end of its run.
Forecast: $105 million
Actual: $73 million (est.)
Hercules looked like a dud from a mile away, but we assumed Dwayne Johnson would use his promotional skills to get a significant portion of his fanbase out to see it. That didn't really pan out, and Hercules wound up as the lowest-grossing Summer 2014 movies with a budget of at least $100 million (by a large margin, too).
Forecast: $95 million
Actual: $46.3 million
Adam Sandler's brand has been tarnished lately, but a family comedy with Wedding Singer/50 First Dates co-star Drew Barrymore seemed like it could put up solid numbers. Instead, it barely made more than 2012 bomb That's My Boy ($36.9 million).
Get on Up
Forecast: $95 million
Actual: $31 million (est.)
It's become a bit of an annual tradition that a movie targeted toward adults becomes a counter-programming hit in August. With The Help director Tate Taylor at the helm, we bet on James Brown biopic Get On Up; unfortunately, moviegoers almost entirely rejected it, and it wound up 82 percent lower than The Help. Instead, the break-out August hit was The Hundred-Foot Journey, which is currently crawling to $50 million.
Edge of Tomorrow
Forecast: $90 million
Actual: $101 million (est.)
This prediction actually overestimated the initial interest in Edge of Tomorrow; it opened to just $28.8 million, which shouldn't have translated in to a $90 million total. However, very strong word-of-mouth helped the movie hold up over the next month, and it ended up becoming Tom Cruise's first non-sequel to pass $100 million since War of the Worlds in 2005.
The forecast included all titles that we thought would earn over $90 million. The only movie to cross that threshold that wasn't listed was Lucy, which is on track to close with around $125 million.
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• Summer 2014 Forecast
• Grading Mojo's Holiday Forecast
• Holiday 2013 Forecast
• Grading Mojo's Summer Forecast
• Summer 2013 Sets New Record with $4.76 Billion
• Summer 2013 Forecast
• Summer Grosses
• 2014 Grosses (2014-only releases)