Forecast
Though 1999 has been a year of new precedents, this weekend appears likely to fall in line with tradition, as none of the new openers look to have break-out openings. It's even quite possible that Toy Story 2 in its fourth weekend or The Green Mile could come out on top.
In Bicentennial Man, Robin Williams reteams with his Mrs. Doubtfire director Chris Columbus in hopes of having yet another holiday blockbuster. Last Christmas he opened Patch Adams to $25.3 million en route to $135 million. However, times have changed some since then. Though Patch was a big hit, it contributed to making many sick of his sensitive clown schtick that he's been doing in just about all of his pictures lately. For example, Jakob the Liar opened to just $2.1 million last September and grossed $5 million total. What's more, Bicentennial Man's ad campaign has been rather lackluster, not displaying nearly the amount of laughter that Doubtfire's did. Playing at 2,518 theaters, it could open modestly as Williams' Jumanji ($11.1 million) did on this same weekend in 1995.
Jodie Foster and Chow Yun-Fat star in Anna and the King, the third movie of the classic story, preceded by 1946's Anna and the King of Siam, starring Irene Dunne and Rex Harrison, and 1956's The King and I, starring Deborah Kerr* and Yul Brynner. There haven't been any romantic, epic period pieces lately, so Anna could benefit greatly from that. After all, Titanic opened on this same weekend in 1997. Of course, Anna doesn't have the same kind of inherent drama or fame as that blockbuster and it won't make nearly as much. Its ad campaign hasn't strongly promoted the romantic element either. What's more, its primary demographic are probably more preoccupied with Christmas preparations right now. The Green Mile and, to an extent, Bicentennial Man are it's closest competitors. Still, Foster, though she doesn't make movies often, has been known to open them pretty well. Look for Anna to open modestly well at its 2,134 theaters.
Sony gives Stuart Little the widest release of the week, with 2,878 theaters. This action just screams desperation. Sony has been having a year filled with flops, such as Random Hearts and The Messenger. The only hits they've had are Big Daddy and Blue Streak, and that's out of 23 releases. They reportedly spent $100 million to produce Little and it's the first effort from their in-house special effects unit. Unfortunately for them, only really appeals to little kids. Such pictures, aside from aberrant fads like Pokemon, have tended to not make much recently, especially on the opening weekend. The similarly appealing Mouse Hunt opened to $6.1 million on the same weekend in 1997 (though it had a leggy run to a $61.8 million total). Last holiday season Jack Frost and Babe: Pig in the City opened to $7.1 and $6.2 million respectively. Compounding the problem is the direct competition for the same audience from the still strong Toy Story 2 and family favorite Robin Williams. So Little should open decently for the type of picture it is, though poorly in relation to its cost.
* Tangent: Kerr seemed to have a habit of remaking Dunne's pictures. In addition to The King and I, she's best known for 1957's An Affair to Remember with Cary Grant. That was, of course, a remake of 1939's superior Love Affair starring Dunne and Charles Boyer. Leo McCarey actually directed both versions. What's kind of weird is that at the time of the original, Dunne and Grant co-starred in the classic screwball comedy, The Awful Truth, in 1937, which McCarey had also directed. 20 years later Grant starred in the Affair remake when he could have very likely been in the original. Perhaps McCarey always wanted to make it with him instead of Boyer (who was still good). By then, though, Dunne had retired from acting.
