If one is to use the opening pattern of Breaking Dawn Part 1 and New Moon (which also opened outside of the Summer), The Hunger Games would be poised for a three-day take between $90 and $110 million. Since those were sequels, though, it's probably fair to assume The Hunger Games will at least hold up a little bit better over the next few days.
There's also a very distant chance that its pattern winds up closer to that of The Dark Knight, which would mean a weekend gross of around $160 million; it's been nearly four years since that movie came out, though and midnight attendance patterns have changed significantly in that time.
Regardless, The Hunger Games is off to a fantastic start, and it still has a very legitimate shot at passing Alice in Wonderland's $116.1 million debut to set a new March and non-sequel opening weekend record.
Top 10 Midnight Openings
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 - $43.5 million
2. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 - $30.3 million
3. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - $30.1 million
4. The Twilight Saga: New Moon - $26.3 million
5. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 - $24 million
6. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince - $22.2 million
7. The Hunger Games - $19.7 million
8. The Dark Knight - $18.5 million
9. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith - $16.5 million
10. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - $16 million
• Forecast: 'Hunger Games' Targets Record Books
• Forecast: 'Harry Potter' to Go Out with a Bang
• Weekend Briefing: 'Eclipse' Rises With Record Release, Midnight Launch
• 'Breaking Dawn' Draws $30.25 Million at Midnight
• 'New Moon' Breaks Midnight Record
• Weekend Briefing: 'Harry Potter' Has Hallowed Midnight Launch
• Sixth 'Harry Potter' Posts Franchise-Best Opening Day
• 'Dark Knight' Begins Smashingly