Forecast
The Ladies Man marks the latest tired Saturday Night Live sketch to receive the big screen treatment. Last year's Superstar and 1998's A Night at the Roxbury opened to $8.9 and $9.6 million respectively, each ending up with around $30 million, profitable in relation to their low budgets. Like those two, Ladies Man lacks laughs in its ad campaign, but, unlike them, it has to face direct competition from a blockbuster comedy like Meet the Parents. On the plus side, its goofy guy trying to score with chicks is similar to Roxbury and Deuce Bigalow: Male Gigolo, which opened to $12.2 million last December, not to mention it has potentially strong appeal among urban audiences. Sipping Courvoisier at 2,022 pads, Ladies Man could woo around $8-10 million this weekend, good enough for third place.
Richard Gere plus chick flick trappings always seems to be good for a decent opening, boding well for Dr. T and the Women. After all, his biggest hits, An Officer and a Gentleman and Pretty Woman, fall under that genre. What's more, he helped open Autumn in New York to $11 million two months ago, more than that sop-fest had any right to. Further benefit could come from the target demo of older women not being served in a while, drawn also by a strong female cast. However, the ad campaign hasn't quite learned the lesson of recent chick flick successes like Double Jeopardy, What Lies Beneath and even Autumn. That is to give away the entire plot. All one ascertains is that Gere is a doctor (though not specified as a gynecologist) who deals with some quirky women with vaguely romantic overtones. Getting examined in 1,489 rooms, Dr. T could see a modest opening of around $6 million.
Gere competes with his Autumn in New York partner in nausea, Winona Ryder. Due to being deemed a dud, Lost Souls was stuck in release schedule limbo for two years, while distributor New Line tried to find the best time to dump it. Its last firm date was October 1999, but according to spin, it was pulled due to the glut of similar pictures. It still would have been a better time in order to take advantage of the millennial Armageddon angle. The glut wasn't that cannibalistic anyway, as Stir of Echoes was the only horror flick not to make much money then. Now Souls just seems late to the party, especially since this year Satanic thrillers haven't fared well. The Ninth Gate and Bless the Child opened to $6.6 and $9.4 million respectively, quickly fizzling thereafter. Nothing about Souls suggests that it will break this trend. The ad campaign has been minimal, and mostly incoherent at that. One surmises that its intended to be scary, but the bleached, dark photography, odd angles and quick cuts make the premise and actors indistinguishable. One ad proclaims the picture to be The Exorcist of its generation, in a feeble attempt to differentiate itself. What this effectively does is remind people that the real thing is currently playing. Souls could exorcise only around $6 million from its 1,970 venues.
The Contender looks like it will have a similar up-hill battle as The Insider did last fall. Though sans a big star like Al Pacino and aggressive ad campaign, it should open to significantly less business than that picture's $6.7 million. What's more, the target audience may be sick of the subject matter with the actual Presidential election, similar recent political shenanigans and The Left... er, West Wing TV show. Star Gary Oldman has claimed that the picture was edited to be liberal propaganda in line with distributor DreamWorks' leanings. The purported attempt should fail to sway many though, as a soft opening in the $4 million range or less seems to be in the cards.
Last weekend, Meet the Parents' stunning $28.6 million opening demolished the previous October record of $17.2 million set by Antz in 1998. With momentum and word-of-mouth on its side, it will handily take the top spot again, likely with a gross close to $20 million. Remember the Titans gave up just 8% to $19.2 million after expanding by 836 theaters. A 30% drop would give it around $13 million this weekend and second place again.
The Exorcist spews pea soup at 505 more venues this weekend, for a total of 1,655. The hope is to take advantage of Friday the 13th, not to mention squelch the similar Lost Souls. Chances of exceeding last weekend's $4.4 million gross are slim, but its decline should be modest.
Over the same frame last year, Brad Pitt's Fight Club punched up $11 million from 1,963 venues to take the top prize. The $65 million David Fincher flick was bruised and battered by the end of its bout with a $37 million total. Double Jeopardy lost 24% to $10.2 million for second, targeting a $116.7 million total. Fans divorced from Bruce Willis and Michelle Pfeiffer as The Story of Us opened to $9.7 million, papers finalized at $27.1 million total. Gaggles of Christian fundamentalists flocked to The Omega Code, boosting the B movie's opening to a surprising $2.35 million from 304 venues, Bible thumping its way to $12.6 million total.
