Tough Weekend Creates 'Panic' Among Players
Brett Aurit of Minneapolis, MN summed up last week's Box Office Derby game when he said, "Four new major releases this week on top of 2 movies getting Oscar bumps... Predicting drops are easy, but rises and new releases are a pain." <TABLE style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 align=right border=1>
<TBODY> <TR>
<TD align=middle bgColor=#dcdcdc>Rank</TD> <TD bgColor=#dcdcdc>Name</TD> <TD align=middle bgColor=#dcdcdc>Accuracy</TD></TR> <TR>
<TD align=middle bgColor=#f5f5f5>1</TD> <TD bgColor=#f5f5f5>Jason Kaplan</TD> <TD align=middle bgColor=#f5f5f5>80.40 %</TD></TR> <TR>
<TD align=middle bgColor=#f4f4ff>2</TD> <TD bgColor=#f4f4ff>JMPster</TD> <TD align=middle bgColor=#f4f4ff>79.42 %</TD></TR> <TR>
<TD align=middle bgColor=#f5f5f5>3</TD> <TD bgColor=#f5f5f5>Paul Taing</TD> <TD align=middle bgColor=#f5f5f5>78.97 %</TD></TR> <TR>
<TD align=middle bgColor=#f4f4ff>4</TD> <TD bgColor=#f4f4ff>Jack Slater</TD> <TD align=middle bgColor=#f4f4ff>78.17 %</TD></TR> <TR>
<TD align=middle bgColor=#f5f5f5>5</TD> <TD bgColor=#f5f5f5>kolchak2</TD> <TD align=middle bgColor=#f5f5f5>77.67 %</TD></TR> <TR>
<TD align=middle bgColor=#f4f4ff>6</TD> <TD bgColor=#f4f4ff>Adam J. Hakari</TD> <TD align=middle bgColor=#f4f4ff>77.60 %</TD></TR> <TR>
<TD align=middle bgColor=#f5f5f5>7</TD> <TD bgColor=#f5f5f5>Dave</TD> <TD align=middle bgColor=#f5f5f5>77.08 %</TD></TR> <TR>
<TD align=middle bgColor=#f4f4ff>8</TD> <TD bgColor=#f4f4ff>Chris</TD> <TD align=middle bgColor=#f4f4ff>76.74 %</TD></TR> <TR>
<TD align=middle bgColor=#f5f5f5>9</TD> <TD bgColor=#f5f5f5>Sam V</TD> <TD align=middle bgColor=#f5f5f5>75.82 %</TD></TR> <TR>
<TD align=middle bgColor=#f4f4ff>10</TD> <TD bgColor=#f4f4ff>mango</TD> <TD align=middle bgColor=#f4f4ff>75.35 %</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Aurit, who was #4 last week, dropped to #178 with an average prediction accuracy of 62.25%. Many other players sent similar comments with their predictions. But Jason Kaplan wasn't deceived, earning the title of Derby Champion for the second week in a row. In fact Kaplan, with 80.4% accuracy, was the only player to score above 80% for the weekend. The average prediction accuracy for all players was 49.36% (compared to the previous game's 71.18%).
Panic Room's $30.1 million dollar opening didn't scare Geoffrey Thomas of St. Paul, MN or Gilberto Rascon of El Paso, TX. Both players predicted the film's opening gross to a 't'. What seemed most certain of last weekend's box office was Panic Room's ability to frighten away the competition. With an 85.05% average player accuracy, Panic Room was the most accurately predicted movie of the weekend.
Family films have been doing well at the box office recently, and last weekend was no exception with The Rookie bringing in $16 million during its first at-bat. Most players underestimated The Rookie's hitting power, pitching an average $13.4 million for this feel-good film. Players Bobb Barile, Nick Born, JJ Pilar, Valery Raytchev, amyrobynne, The Bates, dprimora, JS, and Nobbi should all feel good about their 100% accurate predictions on this movie.
A total of 43 players accurately predicted at least one movie 100%. Special mention goes to Paul Taing and Vesham Daulat who each had two 100% accurate predictions.
Many predicted Death to Smoochy would bomb, but most didn't think it would do as bad as it did with $4.3 million in its opening weekend. Freddie Escamilla of Aurora, IL said, " Smoochy looks so dark and bad its going to bomb." But Rich Chmielewski writes with his prediction of $27.8 million: "Smoochy has had quite the advertising push." This may be true Rich, but the only thing it was advertising was how bad it was. Player Kolchak2 of Seattle, WA noted that the film "…looks DOA in every annoying commercial I've seen. If they wanted to mock Barney (a worthy goal) why didn't they do it when the dumb dinosaur was still a popular phenomenon?" Fett007 in Missouri said the film "does not look funny and I think that is what it conveys to the viewing public with it's preview." JJ Pilar said "it just looks stupid."
Jeff Satkin of Plainfield, NJ has an interesting theory about the genre: "Black comedies such as Smoochy do not do well, especially on a wide breakout without word of mouth time to build. The wide-release means that they do not expect it do very well."
Some players have requested more than just a name on a chart as reward for playing, however. Matt Tomrell of State College writes, "You should charge us $5 to play and whoever wins gets the pot." What ever happened to just playing for fun? Kaz Peters of Rockford, IL asks "If I'm correct, do I win a toaster?" All right, this month we all play for the toaster.
A complete list of player entries and ranking is posted here. We will have a leader board with cumulative scores posted this weekend. Please make sure you read the official rules for how Box Office Mojo calculates all Derby scores. See the Derby home page for information on how to win the toaster.
Aurit, who was #4 last week, dropped to #178 with an average prediction accuracy of 62.25%. Many other players sent similar comments with their predictions. But Jason Kaplan wasn't deceived, earning the title of Derby Champion for the second week in a row. In fact Kaplan, with 80.4% accuracy, was the only player to score above 80% for the weekend. The average prediction accuracy for all players was 49.36% (compared to the previous game's 71.18%).
Panic Room's $30.1 million dollar opening didn't scare Geoffrey Thomas of St. Paul, MN or Gilberto Rascon of El Paso, TX. Both players predicted the film's opening gross to a 't'. What seemed most certain of last weekend's box office was Panic Room's ability to frighten away the competition. With an 85.05% average player accuracy, Panic Room was the most accurately predicted movie of the weekend.
Family films have been doing well at the box office recently, and last weekend was no exception with The Rookie bringing in $16 million during its first at-bat. Most players underestimated The Rookie's hitting power, pitching an average $13.4 million for this feel-good film. Players Bobb Barile, Nick Born, JJ Pilar, Valery Raytchev, amyrobynne, The Bates, dprimora, JS, and Nobbi should all feel good about their 100% accurate predictions on this movie.
A total of 43 players accurately predicted at least one movie 100%. Special mention goes to Paul Taing and Vesham Daulat who each had two 100% accurate predictions.
Many predicted Death to Smoochy would bomb, but most didn't think it would do as bad as it did with $4.3 million in its opening weekend. Freddie Escamilla of Aurora, IL said, " Smoochy looks so dark and bad its going to bomb." But Rich Chmielewski writes with his prediction of $27.8 million: "Smoochy has had quite the advertising push." This may be true Rich, but the only thing it was advertising was how bad it was. Player Kolchak2 of Seattle, WA noted that the film "…looks DOA in every annoying commercial I've seen. If they wanted to mock Barney (a worthy goal) why didn't they do it when the dumb dinosaur was still a popular phenomenon?" Fett007 in Missouri said the film "does not look funny and I think that is what it conveys to the viewing public with it's preview." JJ Pilar said "it just looks stupid."
Jeff Satkin of Plainfield, NJ has an interesting theory about the genre: "Black comedies such as Smoochy do not do well, especially on a wide breakout without word of mouth time to build. The wide-release means that they do not expect it do very well."
Some players have requested more than just a name on a chart as reward for playing, however. Matt Tomrell of State College writes, "You should charge us $5 to play and whoever wins gets the pot." What ever happened to just playing for fun? Kaz Peters of Rockford, IL asks "If I'm correct, do I win a toaster?" All right, this month we all play for the toaster.
A complete list of player entries and ranking is posted here. We will have a leader board with cumulative scores posted this weekend. Please make sure you read the official rules for how Box Office Mojo calculates all Derby scores. See the Derby home page for information on how to win the toaster.
