'Changing Lanes,' 'Sweetest Thing' Try to Ease Sour Taste of Tax-Paying
As the tax deadline draws near, will moviegoers relieve the tension by watching Cameron Diaz shake her moneymaker in The Sweetest Thing or will they blow off some steam watching Samuel L. Jackson and Ben Affleck go at it in the road rage drama Changing Lanes? That's assuming, of course, they have enough money to pay the exorbitant ticket prices after Uncle Sam has taken his share of their income.

"If you liked There's Something About Mary and My Best Friend's Wedding, you'll love Cameron Diaz in The Sweetest Thing," the ads for the R-rated romantic comedy declare over shots of a frolicking, scantily-clad Diaz. In fact, the reference to Diaz' most popular movies is the centerpiece of Sony's aggressive marketing campaign that's been seemingly at full bore for a few weeks now.

The trailer and commercials reference Wedding and Mary in other ways, such as Diaz disrupting a wedding, the use of an R&B song that sounds a lot like "Build Me Up Buttercup" from Mary and the gross-out humor of Diaz finding rancid food wrapped in bird-shaped tin foil in a Saab. In the press, the emphasis has been on Diaz and co-stars Christina Applegate and Selma Blair and the friendship the trio developed a la Charlie's Angels. This blatant referencing of Diaz's past successes underscores the fact that she has never carried a movie on her own before. Although, she scored a career-best $15 million payday for Sweetest Thing.

All that aside, though, the TV spots show plenty of Diaz and Applegate gyrating to the music, which means Sweetest Thing could be a date flick that men don't have to be dragged to. Being the first major release of its kind since 40 Days and 40 Nights, it's distinctive in a marketplace rife with thrillers. In recent years, this weekend has seen solid debuts for such chick flicks as 2001's Bridget Jones's Diary ($10.7 million), 2000's 28 Days ($10.3 million), 1999's Never Been Kissed ($11.8 million) and 1998's City of Angels ($15.4 million).

Shimmying into 2,670 theaters, The Sweetest Thing could woo $13 million this weekend, which may be enough to claim the top spot.

It's Jackson versus Affleck in Changing Lanes, but do people want to see a movie about a couple of guys getting their lives screwed over during tax time? Exacerbating the situation is that the ads haven't exactly been clear as to what the storyline is, so it just comes off as two guys yelling at each other. Those who've seen the trailer, though, will feel like they know the entire plot.

Distributor Paramount is the master at marketing thrillers, yet Changing Lanes isn't a thriller, making the studio's bid to pass it off as such a stretch. The marketplace is over-saturated with the genre anyway, which will make it even more difficult for this movie to stand out. Star power-wise, though Jackson may be on familiar ground, Affleck has suffered when he's strayed from romantic leads and tent poles, and both stars are inconsistent draws.As the release date approached, though, Paramount gave the movie the hard court promotional press with a more effective wave of TV spots. Affleck and Jackson have also been prominently making the talk show rounds. Affleck even appeared on both The Tonight Show and The Late Late Show on Thursday.

Still, the last minute heroics may not be enough. Cutting into 2,613 venues, Changing Lanes could be run off the box office road with around $8 million this weekend.

Also opening at a modest 1,497 theaters is Lions Gate's serial killer chiller Frailty, Bill Paxton's directorial debut. Eschewing the standard critics' quotes, it gets heaps of praise from "the masters of suspense:" James Cameron, Spider-Man's Sam Raimi and Stephen King. Of course, Paxton's pals with Cameron and Raimi after starring in a number of movies for them. The King reference apparently has some people thinking that the movie is based on one of his stories.

Other than that, the ads make the movie look rather pedestrian, and not as scary as the hype suggests. Even Paxton uttering such lines as "Those were demons. Why can't you see that?" or "Only demons should fear me. You're not a demon, are you?" lacks punch. With all the other thrillers out now, Frailty may get lost in the shuffle and live up to its name box office-wise with less than $4 million this weekend.

Among holdovers, incumbent Panic Room will likely see another moderate decline in the 35-40% range to $11 million to land in second place after a two-week reign that has netted the thriller $62.8 million. Now that Easter break is over for kids, Ice Age should cool by 35% to around $9 million, though still could come in third. High Crimes opened to a solid but unspectacular $14 million last weekend. A 40% drop would give it an $8.5 million sophomore session, which could be good enough for the No. 4 spot.

Click here to view the specific predictions for the top 10 movies.

On the same frame last year, Spy Kids remained on top for the third weekend in a row with $12.5 million, down 27% on its way to $112.7 million. Along Came a Spider held onto second place with $11.6 million en route to $74.1 million. Bridget Jones's Diary made a No. 3 entry with $10.7 million from 1,611 theaters, enjoying a leggy run to $71.5 million. The David Spade comedy Joe Dirt dug up $8 million from 2,638 on its way to $27.1 million. Family drama Kingdom Come delivered $7.6 million from 1,111 on course to $23.2 million, while Josie and the Pussycats played to 2,556 nearly-empty venues, drumming up just $4.6 million and $14.3 million by the end of its tour.