Forecast

Whether he likes it or not Keanu Reeves is the star of The Watcher as the actual headliners James Spader and Marisa Tomei, never really bankable anyway, emerge from obscurity for a rare high profile project. Though likely contractually obligated to rattle off his name last, Universal has put the focus on Keanu in the ad campaign for this rather pedestrian looking thriller. Its one twist being, whoa, Keanu is the serial killer! Successful entries to this genre have had much stronger hooks, such as the Seven deadly sins or, just last month, the into-the-mind-of-a-killer eye candy of The Cell. The genre has never been met with tremendous opening weekends though, with The Cell's and The Bone Collector's being the best with around $17 million each.

Just a month ago, Keanu fumbled his way through The Replacements, which opened to $11 million from 2,754 theaters. Unless you're Julia Roberts, releasing two pictures in such close proximity to each other can be problematic, often resulting in one picture overshadowing the other or both under-performing. Keanu's track record has been rather uneven, with the more spectacle surrounding him the higher the gross tending to be. Perhaps the closest in appeal among his hits, The Devil's Advocate opened to $12.2 million back in October 1997.

There aren't many recent examples of an actor who's usually a good guy playing the psycho. The best, genre-and-buzz-wise, would be the 1998 Michael Keaton starrer Desperate Measures, which opened to just $5.8 million from 1,963 theaters. Though Matt Damon had a hit with the more psychological Talented Mr. Ripley last December. What's more, this time of year has been historically conducive to thrillers. In fact, the second best debut this frame has ever witnessed was from the 1997's The Game with $14.3 million from 2,403 venues.

Stalking 2,740 theaters, The Watcher could top the weak marketplace with an opening in the $10 million range. Not too shabby for Universal, which reportedly paid $5 million for the rights.

Nurse Betty's ad campaign seems to focus mostly on the Chris Rock character's soap opera obsession defending his favorite character ("You lie! Jasmine is not a lesbian!"), to the detriment of the picture as a whole. A hitman with some mundane or sissy fetish has been done to death. The rest of the featured jokes are equally flat and cliche, such as when Morgan Freeman complains about being in purgatory and Rock replies, "Worse. You're in Texas," or when Renee Zellweger attempts an emergency operation, explaining "It's okay, I've seen it done once." Scoring these proceedings with the same music as Mitsubishi's car commercials doesn't help either.

A lack of oomph may not entirely be the marketing department's fault. Directing duties were given to Neil LaBute, who didn't write this time like he usually does. An odd choice, considering that his previous pictures like In the Company of Men were decidedly uncinematic with their static, flat camera work and what not, compounded by scripts better suited to the stage.

Quirky or dark comedies tend not to be terribly bankable. Ones given wide releases recently include Drowning Mona, Very Bad Things, The Big Lebowski, and Grosse Pointe Blank, each opening in the $4-7 million range. Somewhat distinguishing Betty is its high profile and diverse cast. Rock co-starred in the similarly appealing Dogma last November and it opened to $8.7 million from 1,269 theaters. Freeman is always a profound presence, though the last time he played a bad guy was in the disaster Hard Rain.

Making its rounds in 1,458 venues, Nurse Betty could get away with around $7 million or so, putting it neck-and-neck with last week's champ Bring It On for the place and show positions.

The Way of the Gun is in a similar vein to Betty, albeit with the bungled caper and resulting violence more prominently featured. Artisan, which struck out with Stir of Echoes on this same weekend last year, has been pushing two elements in its ad campaign. One, that it's from the writer of The Usual Suspects. This may entice some cinephiles or fan boys, but that's not a significant number. Suspects, though a hit in relation to cost, wasn't that big, grossing $23.3 million in theaters. Two, there's an exclusive peak at Blair Witch 2 attached to it, in an attempt to boost grosses a la the first Phantom Menace trailer. Well, Blair Witch is no Star Wars as it drummed up as much ill will as it did business last summer, so the effect should be nil.

Other than that, the picture comes off as just another Tarantino wannabe, only with a wide release instead of the usual limited or straight-to-video one. The marketing campaign has been generally incoherent, with the occasional pauses for punchlines that never come to fruition. When a picture obscures itself in this showing-a-lot-but-not-showing-much way in the ads, especially a small one like this, then potential ticket-buyers are likely to stay away from it.

Then again, there hasn't been much to satiate action fans lately. Some teeny-boppers may turn out to see their idol Ryan Phillippe, his own limited albeit devout following and those mistaking him for a member of N'Sync, as he tries his darnedest to do a tough guy accent. Rising star Taye Diggs is not featured enough to make much impact though.

Shooting up 1,515 joints, The Way of the Gun could collect a modest $4 million ransom, and then go the way of the dodo.

Hip-hoppin' onto 322 theaters, concert and behind-the-scenes flick Backstage was abruptly added to the schedule after the success of another concert film, The Original Kings of Comedy. Among its stars is Jay-Z, who's famous for lifting the chorus from "It's a Hard Knock Life" from Annie on one of his raps. What talent! Anyway, it opened on Wednesday to $122,466, suggesting a weekend tally in the $1 million range. Competing for the same urban audience is Turn It Up starring rapper Pras, who's famous for lifting the chorus from the Kenny Rogers/Dolly Parton hit "Islands in the Stream" on one of his tracks. Such originality! Anyway, audiences turned it down as it opened to $86,865 from 661 venues on Wednesday, suggesting a $1 million weekend if that.

Over the same frame last year, Stigmata exorcised $18.3 million from 2,899 theaters to possess the top spot on the road to a $50 million total. The Sixth Sense finally succumbed in its sixth weekend, down 28% to $16.5 million and $197.7 million to date on its way to $293.5 million. Stir of Echoes caused few ripples with $5.8 million from 1,888 venues, ultimately stirring up $21.1 million total. The only other opener, Love Stinks putrefied in eleventh place with $1.3 million from 1,325 locations and was put out of its misery shortly thereafter at $2.9 million total.