Forecast

Bait hopes to snare in some spare change as the belated start of the summer Olympics and the lack of blockbusters to beget more blockbusters should conspire to make this weekend the weakest of the year. Though energetic, the trailer is light on laughs, the best of which coming from Foxx getting busted for stealing prawns.

Warner Bros. chose this weekend to launch the Jamie Foxx starrer because of the success similar pictures have had on the same frame recently. In 1998, Rush Hour starring Chris Tucker took off with $33 million. Last year, Martin Lawrence's Blue Streak snatched $19.2 million. However, those pictures had stronger hooks, were rated PG-13 whereas this is R, and they had more aggressive ad campaigns as well. Though energetic, Bait's trailer is light on laughs, the best of which coming from Foxx getting busted for stealing prawns.

What's more, Lawrence and Tucker already had several hits to their names, while Foxx has not. He headlined Held Up to a $1.9 million opening last May, totaling just $4.7 million. Prior to that was 1997's Booty Call, scoring a solid $6.4 million en route to $20.1 million. He had a supporting role in last December's Any Given Sunday though, which grossed $75.5 million. His sitcom has been playing for several years, though, being on the WB, it's never gotten high ratings.

The 1996 Olympics took place from July 19 to August 5, making a comparison not exactly analogous. However, the best opener of its first weekend was the Laurence Fishburne actioner Fled with $5.4 million. Only one blockbuster came out of the period, A Time to Kill, which opened to $14.8 million on course to $108.7 million.

Casting out onto 2,352 theaters, Bait could reel in an opening in the $7 million range, good enough for the top spot.

The ad campaign for the Paltrow family dud Duets does its best to cover up the deficiencies by not saying exactly what the picture is about. Just featuring Gwyneth warbling "Cruisin'" over a montage suggesting something romantic. The thing is, chick flicks tend to benefit when the whole plot is given away, such as with the similarly derided Autumn in New York which opened to $11 million last month. The "Just Duet" slogan won't help either. Slipping onto 581 theaters, Duets could have an off-key opening in the $2 million range.

Almost Famous tours into the top ten markets, preordained by the industry to be the Best Picture winner this year. At any rate, it's destined to be featured on VH-1 as one of their "Movies That Rock." DreamWorks launches the Cameron Crowe semi-autobiographical drama on the same weekend that they did American Beauty last year in the obvious hopes of repeating that $130.1 million Oscar-winning success. High on the hullabaloo, it could rock its 131 houses to the tune of $2 million.

In limited release, Crime & Punishment in Suburbia marks yet another teen version of a classic, a genre started by the Emma remake Clueless and continued with such recent ones as Cruel Intentions (Les Liaisons Dangeureuses) and 10 Things I Hate About You (The Taming of the Shew). This time it's the Dostoyevsky novel of the same name (sans the Suburbia part of course). Hey, all of you struggling screenwriters, this sounds like a swell racket to get a script sold. Just take any classic play, novel or movie and set it in high school. Hmmmm, let's see... How about Teen Faust? That's got to be good for a cheesy Disney TV movie of the week at least. Bring on the six-figure payday! The Greeks haven't been pillaged recently, so how about Aristophanes' Lysistrata? Wait, I know. Remake All About Eve and set it in a performing arts school starring a couple of them three-named starlets. Oh, and no one better steal these ORIGINAL ideas of mine.

Meanwhile, poor word-of-mouth should help snuff out The Watcher. A 40% plus slash would put it at around $5 million this weekend. Nurse Betty wasn't exactly warmly embraced either, though buzz could be strong enough allow a drop of 35% or so to around $4.5 million. The rest... well, too low to comment on.

Over the same frame last year, Blue Streak struck the top spot with $19.2 million from 2,735 theaters en route to $68.2 million total. Kevin Costner returned to baseball with For Love of the Game, but including conflicting chick flick elements turned it into a strike-out with $13 million from 2,829 theaters, ending its season with $35.2 million total. American Beauty bloomed on 16 theaters to a stunning $861,531. Nurtured with a slow roll out by DreamWorks and numerous year-end awards, it belied the usual ephemeral pattern to become perennial, reaching $130.1 million domestically and an additional $207 million overseas.