Forecast

Urban Legends: Final Cut slashes into theaters two years after the original grossed a modest $38.1 million amidst the teen horror genre's zenith. It may be a year too late given the target audience's short attention span. The first one opened to $10.5 million from 2,257 venues on the same weekend in 1998.

The Final Cut subtitle is odd, because it is the kind usually reserved for the end of a long playing series, i.e. one with more than just one sequel. At least the filmmakers are realistic about their franchise potential, not to mention merciful in squelching it so soon.

The second I Know What You Did Last Summer grossed 55% of the first one. The only other slasher flicks this year have been Scream 3, which grossed a low-for-the-series $89.1 million, and sleeper Final Destination, which amassed $53.3 million. Then, of course, there was the spoof, Scary Movie, the kind of thing that comes when a genre has run its course, creatively and popularity-wise.

Having no relation to the first one other than name should hurt Final Cut, as well as not having any recognizable starlets as is the norm with these pictures. It could slice up an opening in the $7 million range.

Almost Famous gathers no moss as it rolls into 1,193 theaters, after a rockin' $2.3 million opening from 131 last weekend. When American Beauty expanded to a similar amount last year, it grossed $9.5 million. Now, Famous doesn't have quite the same amount of buzz going for it, but word-of-mouth is still strong and its new locations are demographically conducive. The preordained Best Picture winner should continue to give DreamWorks something to Crowe about as a $7 million weekend could be in store.

Woman on Top is receiving an unexpectedly wide 1,084-theater release from Fox's specialty arm Searchlight. All the ad campaign does is gush about how hot Spanish vixen Penelope Cruz is. Not that the audience needs this pointed out. It obscures the "you go girl" aspect of what is essentially a chick flick. Of course, the hope is to capitalize on the Latin craze and have returns to the similarly culinary and magically realistic Like Water For Chocolate. However, the reviews have been rather negative, something that affects small pictures like this. An anemic opening or around $2 million could be in store.

The Exorcist, the most popular and oft considered the best horror movie of all time, returns in a Version You've Never Seen. It originally grossed $165 million back in the day, equal to more than $500 million by 2000 ticket prices. Fellow '70s phenomena Star Wars and Grease opened strongly in their recent re-issues, though they were propelled by much more hullabaloo. Spewing pea soup again at 664 venues, this special edition could possess a solid $3 million this weekend.

Last weekend suffered the lowest grossing number 1 picture since Janaury 24, 1997 when Jerry Maguire topped the chart with $5.5 million. The Watcher's $5.8 million and the rest of the low grosses were exacerbated by the significant rise in ticket prices since then. The Olympics' effect on the marketplace has been exaggerated though, evidenced by the modest declines of the holdovers last weekend. This is traditionally a slow time anyway, but the overall malaise stems more from the lack of exciting new releases and long-playing blockbusters to bolster people's interest in them, such as last year's The Sixth Sense.

Over the same frame last year, Double Jeopardy jolted the industry with a $23.2 million opening, a coup for Paramount which had similar success with another chick flick, The First Wives Club, on the same weekend in 1996. Despite (or perhaps due to) giving the whole plot away in the trailer and ads, it absconded with a $116.7 million total. Jakob the Liar showed just how sick of Robin Williams' cloying crying clown routine audiences have become as it opened to a mere $2.1 million, getting snuffed out at $5 million total. Audiences were also mum about Mumford as the Lawrence Kasdan comedy started with $1.85 million, strolling to a $4.6 million total.