Forecast

The Klumps loom large over the box office this weekend as the second fat-suit comedy of the season. The first being Big Momma's House, starring Martin Lawrence doing similar schtick as his mentor Eddie Murphy did in The Nutty Professor. It has even performed in a similar manner, opening with $25.7 million and likely ending its run with about $120 million. The early June release date was a calculated move on Fox's part, involving an accelerated production process, in order to get the jump on Universal's Nutty sequel.

But has Big Momma satiated or merely whetted audiences' appetite for this kind of humor? Could it be that they were biding their time with Big Momma until the bigger Klumps plopped on the screen? Hey, five times the fat suits equals five times the funny! Or so the rationale might go.

After all, similar pictures doing blockbuster business in the same season is not unprecedented. Two "things-falling-from-the-sky" pictures besieged the summer of 1998. The latter one, Armageddon, outdid the first, Deep Impact, by 43%. Last summer sustained two Julia Roberts romantic comedies, Notting Hill and Runaway Bride, with the latter again making more. Not to mention a glut of horror movies within weeks of each other.

The Nutty Professor II finds the enormously talented Murphy both ambitiously playing six different characters, yet at the same time resting on his laurels. It goes without saying how downright derivative the picture is. After all, it's the sequel to the remake of the Jerry Lewis picture of the same name, which itself was a comedic remake of Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde. What's more, it prominently features jokes recycled from past Murphy pictures. From Trading Places, it takes the one where the unlikable guy falls victim to the amorous advances of an animal, this time instead of a gorilla it's a giant guinea pig (which is also reminiscent of Dr. Dolittle). When Grandma Klump seduces Buddy Love, it's simply a more grotesque version of Eartha Kitt's scenes from Boomerang.

Once the top draw at the domestic box office, years of bad movies took a toll on Murphy's clout. He bottomed out with Beverly Hills Cop III and Vampire in Brooklyn in the mid-90's. The $128.8 million grossing Nutty Professor was the first picture of the decade to perform close to the level he was accustomed to in the '80s. Witnessing the $144.2 million success of Dr. Dolittle side-by-side with the further failures of Metro, Holy Man and Bowfinger seemed to cement that he now couldn't have an unmitigated hit outside of 1960's remakes. Both of which even out-grossed their domestic tallies overseas, unusual for him. Hence this Nutty sequel and a Dolittle one in the works. There was talk a while back that he would return to stand-up. Too bad that never came to fruition as the visceral experience of live performance could have shaken him out of his complacency. He's never been as funny or as vital as he was back in his Delirious days.

Breaking down the first Nutty Professor remake, a $25.4 million was achieved from 2,115 theaters back in 1996. Adjusting for inflation, that equals around $29 million today and a $148 million total.

Lately, event-style sequels have been doing far better than the traditional "60% of the original." The most salient example is last summer's Austin Powers sequel. It opened to $54.9 million from 3,312 theaters, equaling what the original did in its entire run, going on to quadruple it with a $206 million total. Now, quadrupling an already blockbuster sum is damn near impossible, but this precedent is encouraging for Nutty II's chances to possibly double the opening weekend take of the first, especially since its opening at 53% more theaters, 3,242 (and 4,430 screens).

Other sequels' performances that bode well for it include Toy Story 2 and Mission: Impossible 2, both of which not only blew away the originals' openings but out-grossed their inflation-adjusted totals as well. Though technically not a sequel but germane due to opening on the same frame last year, the Pretty Woman reunion Runaway Bride started with a $35.1 million weekend, a record for the romantic comedy genre and far greater than the original's $11.3 million.

Further in Nutty II's favor, the decidedly lowbrow humor certainly appeals to the target audience that made a smash hit out of Scary Movie among others, only the PG-13 rating makes it more inclusive. All told, expect The Klumps to gorge on their own weight in money, easily smooshing the competition with a $50 million range opening.

Prior to Thomas & the Magic Railroad, fledgling studio Destination Films has released three pictures: Bats, Eye of the Beholder, and Drowning Mona. The box office performances of which make it a wonder that they haven't filed Chapter 11 yet. Now, with, a brand name kid flick of PBS fame, they hope to have their first hit or at least their first picture to hit the black.

Production values aren't much better than on the TV show, making it more an extended episode than anything else. Then again, producers must have been aware what a tough sell that talking trains that don't move their lips but roll their eyes would be to anyone but the devout. Plus, such cost cutting didn't hurt the Pokemon movies.

By comparison, PBS cohort and butt-of-many-a-joke Barney grossed $11.1 million in his 1998 Great Adventure, though the highest theater count reached was 839. Last July, Muppets from Space had a $1 million Wednesday opening. That led to a $4.8 million weekend from 2,265 theaters en route to $16.6 million total. Thomas looks like it could do similar numbers, making it the little engine that couldn't. Its Wednesday opening of $1.4 million from 2,054 theaters bears this out, suggesting an opening weekend in the $5 million range. The good news for Destination, though, is that it's plenty enough promotion to vault video sales to solid numbers.

What Lies Beneath unabashedly gave away most of its plot points in its trailer a la the similarly female-skewing Double Jeopardy. Nonetheless or perhaps because of this, it was the champ last weekend with $29.7 million. Last year, The Haunting collapsed by 54% in its second frame, while the Sixth Sense lost a mere 3%. What Lies Beneath's appeal probably lies somewhere in between. Further mitigating potential loss is that its older female audience tends not to rush out entirely on the first weekend. Therefore, it could likely ease by around 35% to $19 million and second place.

X-Men plunged 57% last weekend from its lofty opening, but still managed to pass the century mark in 11 days flat. Some leveling off should be in store for the mutants Marvel. A drop of about 45% would give it $13 million and third place.

Pokemon's going the way of the Power Ranger as the sequel's first five days totaled $23.6 million. That's far behind The First Movie's monstrous $50.8 million from last November. The fact that kids are free to see the sequel during the week should expedite its downfall. Sequels almost invariably have steeper declines anyway. The first one dropped 60%, so a 65% drop would mean the sequel pockets around $7 million. Despite its imminent demise, it should be profitable for Warner Bros. given the low budget.

The same frame last year was a then summertime record breaker. The aforementioned Runaway Bride walked away with a $35.1 million opening from 3,158 theaters, eventually earning $152.3 million total. The Blair Witch Project expanded to 1,101 theaters and grossed an astonishing $29.2 million. Word-of-mouth snuffed it out though, and it ended up with $140.5 million despite reaching 2,538 theaters. Another scary movie, Deep Blue Sea sunk its teeth into $19.1 million and third place, ultimately consuming $73.6 million total. The Haunting and Inspector Gadget rounded out the top five with $15.4 and $14.1 million respectively, down 54% and 35% in their second outings.