Forecast

Bludgeoning moviegoers with just one picture this summer wasn't enough for uber-producer Jerry Bruckheimer. After Gone in 60 Seconds and with his trademark quick cuts, orange-filtered sheen and inane premises in tow, he unleashes Coyote Ugly, a blatant attempt to repeat his first blockbuster success Flashdance.

In addition to referring to the real life bar, the term Coyote Ugly is said to refer to getting drunk, sleeping with someone that looked hot at the time, and then the next morning discovering the ugly truth. The picture will no doubt live up its title then. Men lured in by Pied Piper Perabo and the other buxom barmaids will be sorely disappointed, not only by how bad the picture is, but by the lack of the promised debauchery that the PG-13 rating won't permit. It's Showgirls sans nudity.

What little plot there is suggests chick flick, but with eye candy thrown in to keep the guys interested. However, the ad campaign is just a barrage of that eye candy with nary a hint of story and with clips flashing by so quickly that the only way that characters are distinguished is through such cliche tags as "The Dreamer" or "The Flame." Guys are certainly transfixed by the gyrations of Tyra Banks and crew. However, since it's all about ogling, they're not liable to take their dates to it. Besides, they can get similar action for free on MTV. After all, the campaign, and the picture itself no doubt, is just a derivative music video set to a melange of decade old songs, mostly one hit wonders like "Unbelievable." They even have the gall to use "The Devil Went Down to Georgia" from another bar-set picture Urban Cowboy.

In its quest to appeal to everyone, it should appeal to no one. In a way, it reminds one of a bomb from last year, For Love of the Game, which was hoping to be a hit by combining a soppy love story for the women and baseball for the men. It opened to $13 million and struck out with $35.2 million. A genre analog would be Striptease, which opened to $12.3 million in the summer of 1996. It shed its business as quickly as its clothes, reaching just $33.2 million total.

Audience tracking may have it at a competitive level, but that's more due to the incessant commercials than any firm committal on their part. Shaking its booty at 2,650 joints, Coyote Ugly's opening shouldn't be too pretty. Say the low-to-mid teen range and fifth place.

The ads for Space Cowboys have been rather subdued, geriatric even, with a muted and muddled sound mix rendering the voiceover, dialogue and John Glenn inspired premise nearly unintelligible and certainly indistinguishable. The slogan "Boys will be boys" appears, flaming, shaking, doing its darnedest to make people think this is Armageddon. Until recently, the stars weren't even mentioned. Rather odd, given that it's not merely Grumpy Old Men in space. It's Clint Eastwood and Tommy Lee Jones in space.

Thinking of Eastwood's recent pictures, the word that springs to mind is "leisurely." Perhaps this style made it difficult for pulse-pounding and punchy ads to be made. His past few summer releases have been big hits though. Those include In the Line of Fire and The Bridges of Madison County, while Unforgiven opened to $15 million on this same weekend back in 1992.

Launching at 2,805 theaters, Space Cowboys could open to around $15 million, finishing in fourth place. If it does much better, it will be no thanks to the anti-climactic ad campaign.

That leaves Hollow Man as the only new release with a shot at dethroning The Klumps. With kinky Dutch director Paul Verhoeven of Showgirls infamy at the helm, the title could be a wink-wink at the audience, acknowledging how empty and derivative this invisible man flick is. The audience won't likely care, as money shots abound, including the one where Kevin Bacon disappears layer by layer. What's more, the ad campaign has effectively played up two saleable and creepy themes, one about fearing what one can't see and the other tapping into what many would like to do if they were invisible themselves.

Though What Lies Beneath was the first horror picture of the season and is still a formidable contender in the marketplace, it appeals more to older audiences. Hollow Man is a different kind of scare, more of the creature feature, jump-at-you kind, skewing younger. Its steel blue color scheme is even reminiscent of Deep Blue Sea, which opened about the same time last year to $19.1 million. In fact, that period proved that several movies of the same genre could co-exist without cannibalizing each other as The Sixth Sense, The Blair Witch Project and other horror pictures each did tremendous business.

Appearing at 2,956 theaters, Hollow Man could fill around $25 million worth of seats for the top spot.

The Nutty Professor II had a massive $42.5 million opening last weekend. The fatter they are the harder they tend to fall, especially when they're sequels and saturation releases. On a crash diet, The Klumps could lose about 45% of its weight to a gross in the low-to-mid twenty million range and second place. Meanwhile, What Lies Beneath's grip on its target audience abated by just 23% last weekend to $22.9 million. Another strong hold would give it around $16 million and third place.

On the same frame last year, the five new releases ran the gamut. There was the blockbuster, The Sixth Sense with $26.7 million from just 2,161 theaters. The solid hit, The Thomas Crown Affair with $14.6 million. The big-budget dud, Mystery Men with $10 million. The family flop, The Iron Giant with $5.7 million. And the blip, Dick with $2.2 million. The Blair With Project and Runaway Bride further contributed to the busy marketplace with $24.3 and $20.8 million respectively.