Forecast
Believe it or not, it has been three years since the last time Jim Carrey really made us laugh in a motion picture. Liar Liar was its name, and it was his biggest success as a solo star, opening to $31.4 million and enjoying a leggy run to $181.4 million total. During this time, Carrey baited for Oscar and was completely snubbed with both attempts, Man on the Moon and The Truman Show (which was still arguably the best picture of 1998). His absence has allowed such pretenders to the comedy throne as Adam Sandler and Martin Lawrence to rise.
Me, Myself & Irene marks Carrey's return to full comedic form, re-teaming with his Dumb and Dumber directors, the Farrelly brothers, whose last picture, There's Something About Mary, could have a halo effect on this one.
The R-rating could hurt though, as Carrey's most ardent supporters tend to be young. His only other R-rated picture, Man on the Moon, was his first true bomb, grossing just $34.6 million total. The last time he was mentally unbalanced was in 1996's The Cable Guy. It opened to $19.8 million, petering out quickly to $60.2 million.
The ad campaign has been fairly light on laughs too. The best punchlines were deemed too obscene for TV and trailers. The closest things to a money shot have been when Carrey falls over a rail, bouncing on the way down, and when he throws himself out of a Mustang while driving.
These are just minor problems though. Again, this is Carrey's return. People have been waiting a long time for this. His average opening weekend is $25.8 million, and that's with Man on the Moon's $7.5 million bringing it down. He is one of the few, true box office draws around, and this is exactly the kind of picture that even made him the most bankable star at one point.
Big Momma's House is the closest competitor, but it's entering its fourth weekend and probably won't gross much more than $7 million. Playing at 3,016 theaters, Me, Myself & Irene is certain to win the weekend with an opening likely in the $30 million range.
The only studio besides Disney who seems to have had a modicum of success with animation is Dreamworks. They hope to continue with Chicken Run, a claymation feature from the creators of Wallace & Gromit.
It appears to have a similar offbeat appeal as Babe did. If so, it could have a leggy run as that talking pig picture opened to $8.7 million in August 1995, yet ended up with $63.7 million total.
The ad campaign has expanded considerably in recent weeks, literally opening up with better lighted shots and even successfully spoofing the campaigns of Gladiator and Mission: Impossible 2. Favorite quotes being "It's chicken impossible" and "I don't want to be a pie."
Competition for the family audience is rather light as Dinosaur has fossilized while Titan A.E. and Fantasia 2000 fizzled in their openings last weekend. Escaping from 2,491 coops, Chicken Run is set to rule the family roost with an opening in the mid-to-high teens and a second place finish.
Shaft delivered $21.7 million out of 2,337 theaters in its opening last weekend. Since it's both an action and a niche picture, the black private dick may have shot his load. A 40% drop to $13 million and third place finish could be in store. The original Shaft sold about 15 million tickets in 1971, which would translate to around $77 million today. The new one may have trouble reaching this sum.
Keeping with the tradition of animated sci-fi bombs, Titan A.E. crash landed with just $9.4 million from 2,734 theaters. With no momentum and new pictures eating into its teen and family audiences, it could see a fall in the 40% range.
Boys and Girls reaffirmed the June teen picture curse as it managed just $7 million last weekend. Its pattern is remarkably similar to Can't Hardly Wait from June 1998. That teen flick tumbled 52% in its second frame, and Boys will likely follow suit.
On the comparable weekend last year, Big Daddy answered the question "Who's your daddy?" by raking in $41.5 million en route to $163.5 million, while Tarzan swung into second with $24.1 million, down 30%, on its way to $171.1 million.
