Forecast

Two solidly commercial and demographically compatible titles, Scary Movie and The Kid, enter the marketplace this weekend, riding the momentum that The Perfect Storm and The Patriot started after a relatively slow June.

Opening on the same frame that American Pie did last year, Scary Movie reportedly raises (or rather lowers) the bar for gross-out humor, though this isn't exactly indicated in the ad campaign. Originally called Scream If You Know What I Did Last Halloween, the picture's title is actually the original one for its main focus for spoof, Scream.

That influential-for-the-worse franchise is kind of an odd subject for spoof given that Scream was a belated spoof itself of '80s slasher flicks. Now, the glut of derivative horror pictures it spawned are certainly ripe for it, as they took themselves too seriously. Spoofs often hearken the end for a genre's cycle of popularity, ranging from a bang, Airplane! for the 70's strain of disaster picture, to a whimper, Fatal Instinct for the erotic thriller in the early 90's. Here's hoping that Scary Movie combined with the recent soft grosses of Scream 3 and its ilk mean the same for the slasher flick.

The ad campaign is chock full of the type of gags that leave the target audience rolling in the aisles. With no significant competition for teens and playing at 2,911 theaters, an opening in the mid-twenty million range and first place finish could be in store.

Since The Sixth Sense, Bruce Willis has had two bombs, The Story of Us and Breakfast of Champions, and one modest hit, The Whole Nine Yards. Now, hoping to repeat his greatest box office success, the busy star teams up with another kid in the unimaginatively titled The Kid, this time to conquer the sentimental comedy genre. This Big-in-reverse was rushed into production back in January, wrapping in April, to make a similar summer release to Sense. It seems to be coming out of nowhere like Sense did, including a subdued ad campaign. It's even opening at about the same number of theaters as Sense did, 2,167 vs. 2,161.

Willis-plus-kid pictures certainly haven't been foolproof. Prior to Sense was the bomb Mercury Rising, which sank to just $33 million. The Kid's ad campaign mostly features the same Steve Wonder music used for Wild Wild West playing over silent scenes and a cartoon-ish red biplane scuttling about. "I grow up to be a loser" being about the only punchline. However, the premise is certainly high concept enough and direct competition low enough to help propel The Kid to an opening in the low teens and fourth place finish.

Last weekend was the first time that two huge pictures of similar demographic appeal collided over Fourth of July frame. Instead of an evenly matched pattern, such as last November when The World is Not Enough and Sleepy Hollow each opened to over $30 million, one picture turned out to be the resounding favorite.

The Perfect Storm blew in with $41.3 million from 3,407 theaters, the third best opening the frame has seen behind Men in Black and Independence Day. The opening is comparable to such other disaster pictures as Twister and Deep Impact which each opened to about $41 million as well. However, adjusting for inflation gives those older disasters the edge, $47.2 million for Twister and $44.6 million for Deep Impact.

The tracking reports that the industry relies heavily on to help forecast box office proved unreliable yet again as they favored The Patriot with 26% while The Perfect Storm had 21%. It's about time to give these things up. After all, I don't use tracking or any other inside information to make my predictions, though I was still way off as well, swept up in a patriotic fervor I suppose. Strangely, my gut feeling actually told me $41 million for Storm but ultimately I over-rationalized The Patriot's potential and stuck to my early predictions.

Apparently, knowing the ending beforehand did not deter that many from The Perfect Storm. Those who didn't know it going in likely felt cheated and exhausted, so word-of-mouth could contribute to a sizable drop. Deep Impact had a downbeat ending and fell 43% in its second frame. A 40% decline would put Storm in the mid twenty million range this weekend, likely going neck-and-neck with Scary Movie for first place.

I don't know whether or not it's a good sign that The Perfect Storm drowned The Patriot, which opened to a disappointing $22.4 million from 3,061 theaters. On the one hand, it's nice to see a ponderous mediocrity and uber-hack director Roland Emmerich fail. On the other, it's sad that America has devolved to the point of indifference and often contempt towards its great birth, even on the Fourth of July, in favor of a bleak and random disaster. The curse of the Revolutionary War in film strikes again.

Now, Patriot could likely have long legs given audience response, and it could even cross the century mark. Still, with a $100 million production cost, Gibson's point participation, and questionable overseas potential, it could be a while before it breaks even, if it ever does. Perhaps the picture just looked too similar to Braveheart, reeking of a "been there, done that" vibe.

In The Hollywood Reporter, Patriot producer Dean Devlin (and longtime Emmerich co-conspirator in crap) thought two pictures having $20 million plus openings was "surprising and a great sign" because now the marketplace has shown that more than one big picture can open on the same weekend. Duh, Devlin. Such a precedent was set long ago and many times over. All of this was part of the spin, which included the obvious likening to Apollo 13, the R rating, the running time, blah blah blah.

Gibson opened the R-rated Payback to $21.2 million last year. His Lethal Weapon 4 and Ransom scored $34 million each, both R-rated as well. More comparable in length and subject, Saving Private Ryan opened to $30.6 million. Adjusted for inflation, Apollo 13 blasted off with about $29.5 million on this weekend in 1995, $45.5 over the long holiday, and ended up with about $201 million total. Anyway, a 35% drop would put The Patriot in the mid-teen range this weekend and third place.

Me, Myself & Irene tumbled 45% to $13.3 million. A hefty slide drawing parallels to The Cable Guy. Last year though, Big Daddy lost 52% in the same frame and then leveled off in its third weekend, despite the opening of American Pie. A 40% drop would put Irene in the $7 million range.

Chicken Run ruled the family roost with $13.2 million, pecking to death Rocky & Bullwinkle. That $76 million Robert DeNiro production opened to an uneventful $6.8 million, joining Battlefield Earth and Titan A.E. as one of the summer's biggest bombs. Meanwhile, the $42 million Run could see another modest decline in the 30% range this weekend and could likely fly over the $100 million fence by the end of its run.

Over the same frame last year, American Pie pie poked its way to an $18.7 million start en route to $102.1 million total. Wild Wild West tripped to second, adding $16.8 million to its coffers on the trail to a disappointing $113.8 million total. The only other opener was the thriller Arlington Road with a modest $7.5 million, ending up with $24.4 million total.

Last weekend, overall box office totaled $134.4 million, up 26% over the previous weekend and up 10% over the same frame last year when Wild Wild West topped the chart with $27.7 million.