October 2000

The Blair Witch Project phenomenon was over shortly after it began in the summer of 1999. Its first weekend of wide release generated an astonishing $29.2 million from just 1,101 theaters. Then the backlash started once people got to see what the hype was all about. It expanded to 2,142 theaters on the next weekend, yet business dipped to $24.3 million. Precipitous drops followed, though those early weeks were so strong that it reached $140.5 million total.

Understandably, distributor Artisan wanted to start a franchise from this, kind of like Miramax and its Scream flicks. Most of their pictures don't make money anyway (The Way of the Gun, Dr. T & the Women). Hence the appearance of Book of Shadows, a little over a year later. Overly bullish and blind to the public's sentiment towards the original, Artisan is reportedly expecting a $30 million opening, even giving the picture the fifth widest launch of all time, 3,317 theaters. With a negative cost likely around $35 million ($10 million of which for production), profitability at least by its ancillary runs is virtually guaranteed. However, the sequel appears destined to make only a fraction of the first. It comes off as a generic teen slasher flick in the ads, sans the first person, shaky camera gimmickry of the original. This could alienate the few hard core fans, though make it more palatable and less motion sickness inducing to the mainstream. One thing's for sure, people are no longer confused about whether it's real or not, further lessening potential. After all, that mystery is what attracted people to begin with. Halloween should help though, especially since it doesn't land on the weekend. Last year, House on Haunted Hill scored a record opening for this frame ($15.9 million) with the holiday falling on its Sunday. All of these factors could amount to an opening in the high teens and first place for Blair Witch 2, though 50%-plus drops will likely follow.

Lucky Numbers was pushed back from a July release date to distance itself from the atomic stink bomb that was John Travolta's Battlefield Earth. However, test screenings were generating a sizable stench in their own right. This date was picked and the marketing campaign tuned to replicate Travolta's Get Shorty success from about the same period in 1995. Commercials have been aggressively running for weeks now, seemingly more ubiquitous than those for the Blair Witch sequel have been. Travolta and director Nora Ephron (You've Got Mail) previously had an unlikely hit in 1996's Michael, but that opened over the Christmas holidays and was in the star's prime. The reunion of the portly Scientologist and the saccharine, hack helmer has a much greater uphill battle, exacerbated by an ad campaign that doesn't generate laughs, unlikable characters, critical revilement, and competition from Meet the Parents and Bedazzled. Attempting to rig 2,497 play-dates, Numbers could come up with an unlucky opening in the $8 million range.

Instead of going straight-to-video or premiering on the Disney channel, The Little Vampire gets a rather wide release for its genre, 2,009 theaters. There's even been commercials running in prime time. Needless to say, pictures appealing solely to tykes tend to not open strongly. Digimon was the last casualty, with a $4.2 million debut. Then again, they can occasionally surprise such as last year's Baby Geniuses, which opened to $5.6 million and clung to screens until it reached $27.2 million. Vampire could suck up around $3 million, enough for seventh place in this weak marketplace.

The Ladies Man marks the latest tired Saturday Night Live sketch to receive the big screen treatment. Last year's Superstar and 1998's A Night at the Roxbury opened to $8.9 and $9.6 million respectively, each ending up with around $30 million, profitable in relation to their low budgets. Like those two, Ladies Man lacks laughs in its ad campaign, but, unlike them, it has to face direct competition from a blockbuster comedy like Meet the Parents. On the plus side, its goofy guy trying to score with chicks is similar to Roxbury and Deuce Bigalow: Male Gigolo, which opened to $12.2 million last December, not to mention it has potentially strong appeal among urban audiences. Sipping Courvoisier at 2,022 pads, Ladies Man could woo around $8-10 million this weekend, good enough for third place.

Richard Gere plus chick flick trappings always seems to be good for a decent opening, boding well for Dr. T and the Women. After all, his biggest hits, An Officer and a Gentleman and Pretty Woman, fall under that genre. What's more, he helped open Autumn in New York to $11 million two months ago, more than that sop-fest had any right to. Further benefit could come from the target demo of older women not being served in a while, drawn also by a strong female cast. However, the ad campaign hasn't quite learned the lesson of recent chick flick successes like Double Jeopardy, What Lies Beneath and even Autumn. That is to give away the entire plot. All one ascertains is that Gere is a doctor (though not specified as a gynecologist) who deals with some quirky women with vaguely romantic overtones. Getting examined in 1,489 rooms, Dr. T could see a modest opening of around $6 million.

Gere competes with his Autumn in New York partner in nausea, Winona Ryder. Due to being deemed a dud, Lost Souls was stuck in release schedule limbo for two years, while distributor New Line tried to find the best time to dump it. Its last firm date was October 1999, but according to spin, it was pulled due to the glut of similar pictures. It still would have been a better time in order to take advantage of the millennial Armageddon angle. The glut wasn't that cannibalistic anyway, as Stir of Echoes was the only horror flick not to make much money then. Now Souls just seems late to the party, especially since this year Satanic thrillers haven't fared well. The Ninth Gate and Bless the Child opened to $6.6 and $9.4 million respectively, quickly fizzling thereafter. Nothing about Souls suggests that it will break this trend. The ad campaign has been minimal, and mostly incoherent at that. One surmises that its intended to be scary, but the bleached, dark photography, odd angles and quick cuts make the premise and actors indistinguishable. One ad proclaims the picture to be The Exorcist of its generation, in a feeble attempt to differentiate itself. What this effectively does is remind people that the real thing is currently playing. Souls could exorcise only around $6 million from its 1,970 venues.

The Contender looks like it will have a similar up-hill battle as The Insider did last fall. Though sans a big star like Al Pacino and aggressive ad campaign, it should open to significantly less business than that picture's $6.7 million. What's more, the target audience may be sick of the subject matter with the actual Presidential election, similar recent political shenanigans and The Left... er, West Wing TV show. Star Gary Oldman has claimed that the picture was edited to be liberal propaganda in line with distributor DreamWorks' leanings. The purported attempt should fail to sway many though, as a soft opening in the $4 million range or less seems to be in the cards.

Last weekend, Meet the Parents' stunning $28.6 million opening demolished the previous October record of $17.2 million set by Antz in 1998. With momentum and word-of-mouth on its side, it will handily take the top spot again, likely with a gross close to $20 million. Remember the Titans gave up just 8% to $19.2 million after expanding by 836 theaters. A 30% drop would give it around $13 million this weekend and second place again.

The Exorcist spews pea soup at 505 more venues this weekend, for a total of 1,655. The hope is to take advantage of Friday the 13th, not to mention squelch the similar Lost Souls. Chances of exceeding last weekend's $4.4 million gross are slim, but its decline should be modest.

Over the same frame last year, Brad Pitt's Fight Club punched up $11 million from 1,963 venues to take the top prize. The $65 million David Fincher flick was bruised and battered by the end of its bout with a $37 million total. Double Jeopardy lost 24% to $10.2 million for second, targeting a $116.7 million total. Fans divorced from Bruce Willis and Michelle Pfeiffer as The Story of Us opened to $9.7 million, papers finalized at $27.1 million total. Gaggles of Christian fundamentalists flocked to The Omega Code, boosting the B movie's opening to a surprising $2.35 million from 304 venues, Bible thumping its way to $12.6 million total.

Moviegoers are either going to Meet the Parents or Remember the Titans this weekend as, with the Olympics ended, studios are finally stepping up to the plate with their more commercial fare after the dumping ground that was September.

"I have nipples, Greg. Could you milk me?" retorts Robert DeNiro to Ben Stiller in Meet the Parents. Aside from that gem though, the ad campaign has been mixed. It seems to miss opportunities for laughs, like with the lie detector scenes. "Have you had pre-marital relations with my daughter?," asks DeNiro. After Ben Stiller mumbles no and the machine goes off, all DeNiro responds with is "Let's skip that question." The funniest parts deal with the cat and milking, like when DeNiro shouts "You milked him (the cat) you sick son-of-a-bitch! Didn't You!" Stiller's shenanigans with the cat hearken back to the dog scenes in There's Something About Mary. The picture also appeals in a similar persona clash vein as Analyze This did, the intimidating tough guy DeNiro opposite a neurotic, Billy Crystal then and now Stiller. Analyze gave DeNiro the best opening of his career with $18.4 million, though its concept was higher than Parents and it additionally played on the star's mobster persona.

No October release has opened to more than the $17.2 million posted by Antz in 1998. Get Shorty's $12.7 million is the best opening a comedy the month has seen. However, considering that few pictures opened last month, these first weeks of October could behave like the second half of September. Many strong openings have occurred at that time including for such comedies as The First Wive's Club and In and Out.

With a paucity of outright comedies lately and a relatable premise to the date crowd in its favor, Meet the Parents could milk around $18 million from 2,612 venues this weekend.

Remember the Titans proved again that a saturation release and ubiquitous ad campaign are not necessary to launch a picture into the stratosphere. Playing at 1,865 stadiums, it stormed the field with $20.9 million last weekend, averaging $11,210. Though it certainly benefited from pent-up demand for something worth seeing, it marks by far the biggest kick-off for a football flick ever, a genre heretofore not known for huge openings. That's also the best debut of Denzel Washington's career, displacing his previous Jerry Bruckheimer collaboration Crimson Tide's $18.6 million (though it's still his best in terms of ticket sales with an adjusted opening of around $23 million). Boding well for its longevity, Titans became the first picture of the year to garner an A+ from CinemaScore's audience polling. This weekend, Disney aggressively expands its release by 836 theaters to 2,701, though most of those are smaller markets. A modest decline could be in store putting it in the $17 million range and neck-and-neck with Meet the Parents for the top spot.

Sylvester Stallone lumbers back onto the screen after a three-year absence with Get Carter. The remake of the 1971 Michael Caine-starrer comes off as a humorless Payback, which was also a blue-filtered redo of a classic tough guy flick (Point Blank). Distributor Warner Bros. offered no press screenings, usually a bad sign. It's co-produced by the red ink spilling Franchise Pictures, a company now infamous for such fiascoes as Battlefield Earth and The Art of War. They cater to stars' whims even if they are fiscally or aesthetically irresponsible. They are also producing Stallone's car racing picture Driven, which he wrote and has been ballyhooing about for a while now. Back to Carter, the Dubya-B has had a modicum of success releasing Stallone pictures on this same weekend in the past. 1993's Demolition Man and 1994's The Specialist launched with $14.3 million each, while Assassins mustered a $9.4 million in 1995. Carter appears closer to the latter, slightly beefed up by those starving for pure action. Seeking revenge at 2,315 venues, an opening in the $9 million range could be in store.

What's the difference between Digimon and Pokemon? Is that kind of like Go-Bots vs. Transformers? Apparently, Digimon's less popular than the fading Pokemon, it doesn't have a catchy, virulent theme song like "Pokemon-mon-mon," nor does its title sound nearly as pornographic. The second Pokemon movie opened to $19.6 million last July. If Digimon has about a quarter of the audience, that puts it in the $5 million range from its 1,822-theater launch.

Almost Famous rolls into another 450 venues this weekend, for a total of 2,085, wider than the more popular and fellow DreamWorks' Oscar bait American Beauty ever reached. Last weekend, Famous had a similarly sized expansion, yet still dipped 19% to $5.6 million for a modest $3,407 average and a $17.8 million cume. Considering that its new markets will be smaller than the last and its lack of momentum, adding so many screens seems a waste of money on prints for a picture that still has an inexplicably high $60 million production budget to hurdle. An average decline to the $4 million range looks to be in the cards.

Over the same frame last year, Double Jeopardy's deal with the devil allotted it a third weekend in the top spot, down 20% to $13.5 million en route to $116.7 million total. Harrison Ford's Random Hearts barely got off the ground with $13 million from 2,697 runways, rapidly losing altitude after that to a total of $31.1 million. Three Kings retreated by 24% to $12 million for third in its campaign to $60.7 million. American Beauty finally blossomed to a wide release, 1,226 theaters, and enjoyed a 16% rise to $9.5 million and fourth place, on its Oscar-ridden route to $130.1 million. The annual Saturday-Night-Live-skit-turned-movie Superstar glimmered modestly in fifth with $8.9 million from 1,943 venues, topping out at $30.6 million.