November 1999

Toy Story 2 grossed $80.1 million in its first five days of wide release, more than doubling the $39.1 million that the original opened to. It was also the third biggest Wednesday-to-Sunday haul of all time, behind only The Phantom Menace and Independence Day. But wait, there's more. The $57.4 million weekend haul was the third biggest opening of all time behind The Lost World and The Phantom Menace. It also was the biggest opening for a Disney movie, an animated one, and it blew away previous Thanksgiving record holder A Bug's Life and its $45.7 million over the same period last year. Stunning.

What's disconcerting is how well sequels have been doing this year, as they make up the top three openers (the Star Wars prequel and the Austin Powers sequel occupying the 1 and 3 slots). Generally speaking, sequels gross around 60% of the original or less. Toy Story 2 will likely out-gross the original, while Austin 2 was the most successful sequel in terms of percent improvement since Terminator 2. The Phantom Menace essentially matched The Empire Strikes Back and Return of the Jedi in inflation adjusted gross, and it did it in one release, whereas they took multiple releases.

Meanwhile, End of Days came in third with an underwhelming $20.5 million over the weekend, $31.5 million for the first five days. For an Arnold Schwarzenegger action picture to open third, and behind another action picture that's in its second weekend, has got to smart. Now, it's by no means a bomb like Last Action Hero was, but with its $100 million price tag, an aggressive (i.e. expensive) ad campaign, and Arnold's cut of the gross, it's going to take a while for it to get in the black, if it ever does. Focus on atmosphere in the ad campaign made the picture look too similar to movies like Stigmata (Gabriel Byrne's presence in both pictures didn't help either). Universal's choice to play down Schwarzenegger's presence and the "Arnold vs. Satan" hook really hurt it as well since those were the strongest selling points.

The World is Not Enough is performing in a similar pattern to Goldeneye. That picture opened to $26.2 million back in 1995 and then made about $26 million the following Thanksgiving weekend. World opened to $35.5 million and then grossed $34 million over the holidays ($23.2 million over the weekend). Its $75,508,007 million total is 32% higher than Goldeneye's was at the same point, and it is well on its way to becoming the highest grossing Bond ever, though it won't likely top ticket sales champ Thunderball from 1965. Yet again its gross ended in "007," which has become too frequent to be mere coincidence, you kooky bean counters at MGM!

Sleepy Hollow didn't hold quite as well, but still scored $26.9 million for the five days, $18.4 million for the weekend. The total stands at $61.6 million, and the picture has a shot at the $100 million mark, which would be a first for Johnny Depp.

Overall box office totaled $160.1 million, up 35% over last weekend and up 20% over the same weekend last year when A Bug's Life topped the chart with $33.3 million.

Toy Story 2 is poised to squish the Thanksgiving weekend record set by A Bug's Life. It already broke the opening Thanksgiving Wednesday record yesterday by grossing $9.5 million. The previous record holder was 1989's Back to the Future Part II with $7.2 million. Last year A Bug's Life faced off with The Rugrats Movie and Babe: Pig in the City and scored the five-day record with $45.7 million. With just the fading Pokemon to contend with, Toy Story 2 has it much better. Bug's Life opened at 2,686 theaters, while Toy Story 2 opened at a whopping 3,236 theaters, the widest November has ever seen. It also is benefiting from being the sequel to the much loved Toy Story, which opened to $39.1 million over the five days in 1995 and went on to gross $191.8 million total.

End of Days is poised to have an underwhelming opening. It grossed $5.2 million its first day, just $350,000 more than The World is Not Enough on its sixth. Making matters worse, since it's a big Arnold Schwarzenegger event picture, it is the type to have make most of its money up front. This and mixed word-of-mouth means it could burn out quickly, ultimately placing third or fourth for the weekend. Part of its problem is that it's not in the spirit of the holiday. Toy Story 2 is for the family of course, James Bond is a franchise and sort of traditional in that it is the third in a row to come out this time of year, and Sleepy Hollow, while gruesome, is kind of festive with its famous story and colonial setting. People don't want to see brainless gloom and doom, millenium or not. The ad campaign is also to blame. Instead of pushing the Arnold vs. Satan hook, it has tried to be more of a lame heavy metal video. Universal may have anticipated lackluster numbers as they opened it at 2,575 theaters. Now that is very wide, but it pales in comparison to the 3,000+ launches of the other event pictures out now.

Flawless was among the pictures the troubled MGM wrote-off earlier this year. Its 478 theater release is a pittance and only because of the presence of Robert DeNiro. It grossed just $171,000 on its opening day, a blip as expected.

The World is Not Enough grossed $4.8 million Wednesday, and looks like it's headed to the low 30's for the five days, close to what it did last weekend. Goldeneye also made about the same amount over Thanksgiving as it did the weekend before back in 1995. Sleepy Hollow looks like it will take a bit of dip, but still perform respectably in the mid-to-low 20's. Warner Bros. plans to again give away Pokemon trading cards, so that may inflate it more than the quickly wilting cartoon would otherwise make. The trading card giveaway played a big part in the $50.8 million it made its first five days.

Overall this looks to be the biggest Thanksgiving weekend ever, breaking last year's $182 million record.

One thing that 1999 has shown is that competition from other movies is one of the more overrated factors in a movie's success or failure. For example, this weekend saw two movies, The World is Not Enough and Sleepy Hollow, open to over $30 million each, a first. However, this weekend also saw the rare occasion when competition came into play as just about every other movie wilted underneath those two blockbusters, dropping as much as 65%. This suggests that the others were making money by default, then when something exciting finally came out, they were abandoned.

Tim Burton and Johnny Depp have had a mid-sized hit, Edward Scissorhands, and a bomb, Ed Wood, together. Now they have a blockbuster as their third collaboration, Sleepy Hollow, grossed $30.1 million from 3,064 theaters this weekend. And, boy, with the way their careers had been going lately and with a $70 million budget, they really needed it. This marks Depp's first blockbuster ever, as he's only had two other bonafide hits this decade (Scissorhands and Donnie Brasco) and many bombs (Nick of Time, The Astronaut's Wife, etc.).

Pokemon tumbled 60% to $12.5 million and a $67.4 million total, making its prospects of hitting the $100 million mark unlikely without studio manipulation. It's funny how most other box office "experts" thought that this would hold up reasonably well. Some even discounted Sleepy Hollow altogether, as if the race was between Pokemon and James Bond alone (such as Access Hollywood did). But it was obvious from its pattern that most of the kids who wanted to see it already did the first few days, so a precipitous drop was inevitable.

The Bone Collector certainly had that "hit by default" aura to it. Since more exciting fare came out, it stumbled an estimated 46% to $6.5 million, versus its 28% drop last weekend.

The good news for Dogma is that it became Kevin Smith's highest grossing picture this weekend. The bad news is that it plummeted 53% from its strong opening to $4.1 million, true to its niche nature. Since the budget was kept relatively low, it could eventually break even though.

The Messenger, on the other hand, was very expensive, reportedly costing $60 million to produce. It plunged a whopping 64% to $2.3 million. A big drop was expected as it actually lost business on its first Saturday (when most movies gain), but this was spectacular. It should perform respectably overseas given Luc Besson's stature as the "Spielberg of France," but it looks as though they'll be seeing more red than they did in the picture's battle scenes.

Meanwhile, Toy Story 2 opened at the El Capitan in Hollywood and grossed a whopping $300,163. It should be noted however, that that includes a stage show and that each ticket costs around $15.

Overall box office was up 8% over last weekend and up 33% over the same weekend last year when The Rugrats Movie and Enemy of the State topped the chart with $27.3 and $20.0 million respectively.

Pokemon: The First (and Unfortunately Not the Last) Movie opened Wednesday to monstrous numbers, $10.1 million from 2,901 theaters. That's the biggest Wednesday launch for an animated picture, beating Toy Story's $4.8 million opening back from November 1995, and it's the fourth biggest of all time. On Thursday, it racked up $9.6 million, suggesting it will fade fast considering that 60% of schools were off for Veteran's Day. Obviously, it will dominate this weekend, though it doesn't look like it will beat The Lion King's animated opening weekend record of $40.9 million.

The hullabaloo begs the question: What the hell is Pokemon? With a title like that, you'd think it'd be a featured attraction in West Hollywood. Turns out, this is the same cartoon that gave kids seizures in Japan. The commercials I've seen have only shown brief flashes of the movie, probably to hide the sub-par animation. What they do promote is that now you can see your favorite Pokemon 30 ft. tall and that you can free cards with each ticket. Whoopty-do.

The Messenger: The Story of Joan of Arc stars Milla Jovovich, who, scarily, looks like Leonardo DiCaprio in the ads. Sony has done a decent job promoting it though. The problem is that the Joan of Arc mini-series from last May stole a lot of its thunder, and, in general, made people less interested in seeing yet another movie on the subject. That mini-series didn't pull in the best ratings either. So if people aren't that willing to see it for free on the TV, they aren't likely going to pay to see at the movies. The mixed reviews don't help either. Playing at 2,147 theaters, look for modest numbers.

Moviegoers may take the title Anywhere But Here as advice and see any picture but it. Fox sure is promoting the heck out of it though. On the plus side, it is the only picture to specifically appeal to teen girls, though they seem to prefer slight and derivative comedies like She's All That. Susan Sarandon and rising starlet Natalie Portman also provide solid star power, contributing to a modest opening from 1,673 theaters.

Despite the controversy, Dogma should fail to achieve mainstream success for Kevin Smith, despite the presence of the Affleck and Damon team. It will be hurt by the its amateurish look in the ad campaign, stemming from a low budget and Smith's questionable directing abilities. Also, it has been in the can for so long, that its 1,260-theater opening is rather anti-climactic.

The Bone Collector handily slaughtered the competition, opening with $16.7 million from 2,587 theaters. This was the second best opening of Denzel Washington's career behind Crimson Tide's $18.6 million, marking a return to form for him after a few years of mostly bombs. Angelina Jolie must be rather pleased too, as this was the first hit of her career. This was also the biggest opening ever for a serial killer thriller. That's not much of a feat though, as this genre has tended to open more modestly, yet go on to make a bundle from word-of-mouth, as The Silence of the Lambs and Seven did. However, word-of-mouth is considerably worse for Bone, so it should fall far short of their grosses.

The Bachelor grossed $7.5 million from 2,522 theaters, $500,000 less than New Line estimated. This was rather inexcusable on their part. They proposed that the picture would drop just 17% on Sunday, when the average for the season is around 40% and usually more for date pictures. And, sure enough, it did drop 46% on Sunday. New Line spent a fortune to promote the $26 million production, so I suppose they didn't want to suffer the indignity of coming in third in their first week in addition to all the money they'll be losing.

The Insider grossed a modest $6.7 million from 1,809 theaters. Given the subject matter, they couldn't have expected to make much more than this. Strong word-of-mouth could propel it to a final gross of around $30 million.

Being John Malkovich added 150 theaters and saw its gross rise 190% to $1.9 million. Though its $10,583 average was strong, it still does not suggest that it will be a mainstream hit. It is scheduled to add around 500 theaters on Friday, but will likely see its average plummet around 50% or more. Princess Mononoke expanded less successfully. After going from 8 to 38 theaters, its average dropped from $18,056 to $10,111 for a $384,220 over the weekend. This is outstanding for anime, but not befitting a picture intended to be an event.

House on Haunted Hill predictably plummeted over 50% to $7.7 million. Music of the Heart must have strong word-of-mouth as it dropped 23% to $2.8 million. It's 10-day total stands at a paltry $7.7 million though. The Best Man performed solidly again, grossing $4.3 million and putting it well on its way to becoming the biggest urban picture since Soul Food.

Meanwhile, Double Jeopardy crossed $100 million on Friday, making it the 15th picture to do so this year. If three more pictures cross can do that this year, it will make 1999 the year with the most $100 million pictures ever. Come on 1999. You can do it!

Many of the holdovers held up extraordinarily well. The Sixth Sense phenomenon continued, dropping just 2% to $3.1 million. More eye popping was how Superstar jumped up 11% after losing 286 theaters. Even Fight Club's descent slowed down as it dropped just 24% after seeing drops of about twice that in previous weeks. Perhaps Halloween had a greater effect on the box office than previously thought, as most of the strong holds were by pictures with demographics skewing younger.

Overall box office was up 17% over last weekend, but down 24% compared to the same weekend last year when The Waterboy topped the chart with a whopping $39.4 million.

The Bone Collector looks to collect enough money to have a near blockbuster opening. Nothing seems to chill people to their bones like these serial killer thrillers. The Silence of the Lambs and Seven both grossed over $100 million and left an indelible impression on moviegoers' minds. Even a lesser one like Kiss the Girls grossed over $60 million. The recent success of Double Jeopardy further affirms the public's desire to see strong female characters in thrillers. The Bone Collector plays into this giving all the action to Angelina Jolie, since Denzel Washington plays a quadriplegic.

The Bachelor gets a perhaps overly confident 2,522-theater release. It also gets two different ad campaigns. The more successful "comedic" one features a teaser asking "why is this man running?" Then it comes back and shows the hundreds of women in wedding dresses chasing after him. This campaign makes the picture look livelier than it probably is, but still not funny. The "romantic" campaign fails, as it plays what seems like the same rock song that's been making the rounds for a year now on any movie with a romantic element. Neither campaign mentions stars Chris O'Donnell and Renee Zellweger by name. Expect this one to perform modestly.

I don't think anyone involved in The Insider expected it to be a hit. Who wants to see a movie about taking down the tobacco industry? Sure, movie buffs will go for the stars and director Michael Mann, who oddly hasn't been promoted as the director of Heat in the ads. But I think most are fed up with the subject, and won't want to go out of their way to be preached to regardless of what the critics say. Playing at 1,809 theaters, it should do mediocre business, even though it probably isn't a mediocre movie.

Just when you think the horror movie has finally died for the time being, another one jumps up, nabbing the top spot and making a ton of dough. House on Haunted Hill had the biggest Halloween opening ever. It grossed $15.9 million, $800,000 higher than Warner Bros. estimated as it dropped just 28% on Sunday. A steep drop-off is in store next weekend, but the $16 million production will still be rather profitable as not much was spent to promote it.

The Best Man dropped 30% to $6.3 million, a strong hold for this genre, suggesting that it is crossing over somewhat. It's also quite a coup for Taye Diggs, who now stars in the top two pictures in the nation. Meanwhile, Music of the Heart tanked as expected, grossing just $3.7 million.

Being John Malkovich $637,721 25 It averaged a strong $25,509, but look for that to erode rapidly as it expands beyond the big cities. Princess Mononoke grossed a solid $144,446 from 8 theaters, averaging a solid $18,056. Since Miramax hasn't given it much of a push and since its opening was likely bolstered by anime fans rushing to see it, it's domestic gross will be nowhere near it's foreign success. The long shelved Legend of 1900 starring Tim Roth grossed $39,200 from 5 theaters. It's $7,840 average was rather modest and suggests it won't make it too far out of the big cities.

The most pathetic opening was by The Suburbans starring Jennifer Love-Hewitt. It bombed even worse than her new TV show, grossing $5,797 from 11 theaters for an average of just $527. These two failures are further evidence that there should be one less three-named starlet working today.

Overall box office was down about 12% from last weekend, but up about 23% from the comparable weekend last year, when Vampires topped the chart with $9.1 million.